The Jacksonville Jaguars will face the Indianapolis Colts in Week 18. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Jaguars and Colts skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 18 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Mac Jones, QB
If this was a fully functional Jaguars offense that Mac Jones had access to (Christian Kirk and Evan Engram), we’d have to have a serious conversation about his potential to project as a top-12 option this week.
That’s obviously not the case, however, and that is why I can get there with him, even in a matchup against a defense that defends the run better than the pass.
Jones hasn’t thrown an interception in consecutive starts and has multiple TD passes in three of his past five. I’m not painting this guy as an ace QB or anything as much as I’m laying the foundation to once again be high on this offensive group for 2025. Despite very, very ordinary metrics across the board, Jones has shown some fantasy promise.
If you’re investing in this offense in DFS this weekend, it’s likely on Brian Thomas Jr. as a stand-alone piece, and I think that’s fine. There’s no reason to take on the risk that comes with Jones for an upside case that isn’t overly enticing.
Tank Bigsby, RB
Tank Bigsby has looked like the more appealing fantasy option than Travis Etienne Jr. more often than not this season, but the upside in a very limited offense is capped when both are on the field.
Bigsby has cleared 12 carries in a game just once since the beginning of November and he hasn’t had a 20-yard rush since consecutive games with a 50+ yard spurt in Weeks 4-5. On the bright side, he turned 13 carries into 101 yards and a pair of touchdowns when these teams met in Week 5 (Etienne: six carries for 17 yards), something that should at least earn him the first shot at them this week.
That said, the Colts’ run defense is much improved, and we just saw them shut down a limited Giants offense that they could load the box against. I’ve got concerns about efficiency in this spot; given that we haven’t seen much in the way of consistent volume in Jacksonville, it’s hard to count on either Bigsby or Etienne with any level of confidence.
I prefer Bigsby this week, but you’re taking on an awful lot of risk.
Travis Etienne Jr., RB
I’m a man of data. I approach life with the idea that with increased information comes increased confidence.
I’ve been in this industry for over a decade, and this Jacksonville backfield has me questioning everything.
Week 9:
Travis Etienne Jr.: 31.4% of snaps
Tank Bigsby: 54.9% of snaps
Week 10:
Etienne: 67.4% of snaps
Bigsby: 23.3% of snaps
Week 13:
Etienne: 52.2% of snaps
Bigsby: 46.3% of snaps
Week 14:
Etienne: 48.3% of snaps
Bigsby: 51.7% of snaps
Week 15:
Etienne: 70.1% of snaps
Bigsby: 28.6% of snaps
Week 16:
Etienne: 50.8% of snaps
Bigsby: 29.5% of snaps
Week 17:
Etienne: 47.4% of snaps
Bigsby: 40.4% of snaps
We got a commitment from this team back in Week 15, seemingly out of nowhere, and they clearly felt bad about giving us a good feel for this situation, so now they are back to dividing a tiny pie multiple ways.
Last week, Etienne produced 33% under expectation — and he was the more effective of the two (Bigsby: -52.9%). Committees are a pain in any situation, but in an offense that has cleared 20 points just once in their past seven games, it’s simply not worth the effort to maybe guess right.
Brian Thomas Jr., WR
Since 2020, three times has a rookie receiver posted consecutive games with 85 receiving yards and a touchdown catch:
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (2021)
- Brian Thomas Jr. (Weeks 15-17)
- Brian Thomas Jr. (Weeks 4-5)
BTJ is the only receiver in NFL history with two such streaks as a rookie. If he can post a fourth straight game in Week 18, he’ll join Randy Moss (1998), St. Brown (2021), and Odell Beckham Jr. (2014) as the only players to accomplish that feat.
This kid is special, and we are seeing signs of it, even though it’s a mess of a season in Jacksonville. He burned these Colts for an 85-yard score in Week 5, and while Trevor Lawrence got him that pass, it’s not as if Lawrence was playing at a high level.
The only reservations you should have here should center around Mac Jones — that is plenty reasonable. I mean, the man is 2-of-21 on passes thrown over 20 yards downfield. I get it.
That said, the risk is worth it. Thomas is a rare talent, and the Colts’ run defense has actually been strong for the most part after an awful start to the season. I think we get 8-10 targets here, and that’s enough usage to justify the quality of throw concerns in Jacksonville.
Parker Washington, WR
There is one player in the NFL who has seen a minimum of three targets over each of the past two weeks and has posted a 100% catch rate with 10+ PPR points in both contests – that would be the pride of Penn State Parker Washington.
No, that’s not the least bit predictive, but it’s nice bar trivia. This Mac Jones-led offense is far from functional, and with one game of a 20% on-field target hare, Washington isn’t the type of profile that screams breakout.
The recent efficiency is good to see, though, and with a snap share north of 74% in five straight games, you could take a DFS flier on a crazier option. I don’t have him ranked as anything more than a Flex option, but the team is clearly interested in what he has to offer as they are using him downfield and in the slot.
He’s been viable in this Christian Kirk/Evan Engram flex sort of role – with both under contract for 2025, this Washington spark is more likely than not to burn out by the time you next draft.
Brenton Strange, TE
Brenton Strange is filling in for Evan Engram, but he’s not Engram, and Mac Jones isn’t Trevor Lawrence. The playing time is there (70% snap share in two of his past three games), but the floor that comes with a role that can see Strange earn one target on 19 Jones passes is something I have zero interest in gambling on.
The Jags have failed to clear 20 points in six of their past seven games. We have no assurance that a single Jacksonville pass catcher proves worthy of our trust, let alone a tight end with limitations.
Anthony Richardson, QB
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, January 5
Richardson is inactive for today's game.
Anthony Richardson (back/foot) did not practice at all last week and ultimately sat out against the Giants. It’s since been reported that he is dealing with “very serious” back spasms, and that all but ensures that his second season is over.
Just as concerning as the 50.6% career completion percentage and sub-1.0 TD/INT rates is his inability to stay on the field (16 games played across two seasons, and that includes a few early exits).
Richardson’s profile is fantasy-friendly, and I think he has enough in terms of team support to make this an above-average offense, but without growth as a passer, the expectation that he’ll be a consistent option in our game is unrealistic.
That said, the second that switch flips, we are talking about a top-five option that could prove to be a league winner the way Jayden Daniels has been this season. It’ll be a price-sensitive decision come drafts this summer, but I can see myself going back to this well, understanding that there is still plenty of depth at the position to insulate this risky investment.
Joe Flacco, QB
Joe Flacco has 56 fewer pass attempts than Anthony Richardson this season – he has three more touchdown tosses and 13 more completions. The future of this franchise is obviously in Richardson’s hands more than Flacco’s, but the present is the veteran’s, and there is fantasy upside to chase given that he has thrown for 3,420 yards over his last 12 games.
There’s no motivation either way in this game, so there is the potential for key members to sit, but at the moment, I have him ranked in the same tier as fellow graybeards Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford, right on the fringe of QB15 status.
Jonathan Taylor, RB
Jonathan Taylor is absolutely cooking at the perfect time for fantasy managers. He can become the seventh player ever with 125 rush yards and multiple rush TD in three straight games, joining:
- Chris Johnson (2009)
- Larry Johnson (2005)
- Clinton Portis (2003)
- Ricky Williams (2002)
- Mike Anderson (2000)
- Earl Campbell (1980)
In those two games, he’s run for a cool 343 yards and five scores. The late-season peak is great to see, and the team is clearly confident in his health (22+ carries in four straight) — we have no reason to doubt his usage this week. Neither the Colts nor the Jags have anything to play for, making anything possible in terms of how touches are distributed. But betting against Taylor is a losing wager right now, especially when facing the 10th-worst run defense by success rate.
Alec Pierce, WR
Alec Pierce turned three targets into a cool 134 yards and a touchdown against the Jaguars back in Week 5, so that’s fun.
Projecting a stat line like that is irresponsible, but suggesting that Pierce could be a Flex option isn’t. Joe Flacco supported a 25% on-field target share for him last week (his second-highest mark of the season), and if you’re telling me that we get usage like that this week, I’ll be all the way in.
Jaguars vs. deep passes, 2024:
- 28th in TD%
- 30th in CMP%
- 31st in YPA
- 32nd in passer rating
Pierce has 10 games north of 80 air yards this season, and that’s reason enough to gamble on him in a spot like this if you’re an underdog. There’s an obvious risk that comes with Pierce, starting with him being their third-best target earner. But if you’re willing to take on a low floor, the upside case is appealing.
Josh Downs, WR
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, January 5
Downs is active for today's game.
Everything Josh Downs had put on film with Joe Flacco before last week was borderline special. He was vacuuming in targets at a high rate and looking like a receiver to watch for years to come.
And then, in a game that turned into a shootout, he operates as the third option behind Alec Pierce (94.5% snap share) and Michael Pittman Jr. (93.2%). I didn’t have that on my bingo card, and it resulted in just 22 yards on his 26 routes run against the Giants.
I’m not dismissing all of the good that Downs had done with Flacco before last week, but I’m certainly not sticking out my chest on him as a top-20 play like I was. Flacco funneled 12 targets in his direction (nine catches for 69 yards) in a Week 5 meeting with the Jags, and that has me thinking that a Flex rebound is certainly possible.
I have Downs ranked as a middling WR3 this week, profiling more of a floor than a ceiling PPR play.
Michael Pittman Jr., WR
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, January 5
Pittman is active for today's game.
A rising Flacco lifts all boats; that’s what I always say.
Michael Pittman Jr. was the target of Joe Flacco’s first pass last week and ended up posting his first 100-yard game since September. Hell, it was just his second effort with 65+ receiving yards over that stretch in what has largely been a lost season for a player who was selected in the first round of most drafts this past summer.
The Colts have been eliminated, but with Anthony Richardson banged up, this projects to be the Flacco show again, and I’m basically treating him like Jameis Winston these days in that I ramp up the expectancy of all receivers in a major way when he is under center.
Pittman is far from a safe play (he’s owed $18,000,000 next season, so I wouldn’t blame Indianapolis for wanting to get out of 2024 without an injury), but he has posted over 11 expected PPR points in five of his last six and the usage was encouraging last week.
I’m prioritizing risky receivers on motivated teams over him (Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed, for example), but when it comes to experienced receivers on finished teams, give me Pittman over DK Metcalf (at LAR) or Adam Thielen (at ATL).