The Jacksonville Jaguars and New Orleans Saints are each pushing to be T.I., the “King of the South,” in their respective conferences. Although inter-conference battles have less at stake in the tiebreaking category, neither team is having as easy of a go as they imagined in their divisions thus far.
What stats and players should we look at in this battle?
From the current NFL standings to team depth charts to coverage of every game in the 18-week NFL schedule, we have all the news from around the league to keep you up to speed!
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New Orleans Saints Predictions
The PFN Board of Selectors couldn’t come to a unanimous decision. New Orleans is a strong football team that has struggled to consistently find points in the red zone. Jacksonville was everyone’s preseason darlings, but they’re still trying to figure everything out.
- Beasley: Jaguars
- Bearman: Saints
- Miller: Jaguars
- Morrison: Jaguars
- Robinson: Jaguars
The Quick Trevor Lawrence Trigger
Time to throw, and any stat having to deal with time, is subjective. It’s important to look at multiple outlets to get a more complete picture. But as long as there are general themes within each, it makes sense to consider it a trend.
Trevor Lawrence has the quickest trigger in the NFL (2.15), according to Inside Edge. His early-down time to throw of two seconds is insanely quick. But Next Gen Stats (2.46) ranks him second behind Tua Tagovailoa, and PFF (2.55) ranks him fifth.
MORE: NFL QB Power Rankings Week 7 2023
No matter where we look, Lawrence is playing hot potato with the football. So it shouldn’t be surprising that he’s 26th in air yards.
But Lawrence gets the ball out quickly to mitigate the Jaguars’ offensive line issues. And when he does try to take a shot, he possesses the pocket manipulation skills to do exactly that.
Josh Allen vs. Trevor Penning
Things started off poorly for Trevor Penning in 2023. After potentially settling in after Week 2, the Houston Texans found a way to bother the Saints’ left tackle.
Josh Allen has been outstanding so far in 2023. Although he’s had an underwhelming career compared to his draft stock, he’s having a great contract year. He posted a career-high 68 pressures a season ago, but the entire Jaguars defense struggled to get home.
That has not been the case this year.
A single pass rusher can absolutely wreck an opposing offense’s passing game. Can Penning stand in the way of Allen’s pursuit of Derek Carr long enough to get something out of New Orleans’ offense?
Consistency of the Saints’ Defense
The Saints are fifth in the NFL in EPA and third in opponent success rate. They’re fourth in rushing EPA (Jaguars are second) and ninth in rushing success rate (Jaguars are third.) The Saints are also top 10 in dropback EPA and success rate.
In short, they’re good at everything defensively — and it’s been that way for years.
Nobody has been better against the run since 2018. New Orleans is first in rushing EPA and success rate in that time. They’re also seventh in dropback EPA and fifth in success rate. No matter what names have come and gone from the Saints’ roster, this defense has been outstanding since Dennis Allen reimagined it.
So, if New Orleans struggles against an offense, one can guarantee that the offense had a great day at the office.
Jaguars WRs vs. Saints DBs
Jacksonville’s wide receivers are an outstanding unit that Lawrence does well spreading the ball around to. Evan Engram (Lol “TE”), Christian Kirk, and Calvin Ridley each have over 40 targets but under 50 through six games.
Each of the Jaguars’ top four receivers (including Travis Etienne Jr.) is hauling in at least 59% of their targets. They also all have success rates of over 50%.
MORE: Jaguars vs. Saints Predictions, Picks, Odds Today
Meanwhile, only two defenders targeted at least 10 times in New Orleans have allowed a catch rate of over 50%, according to Sports Info Solutions. Not a single one of the seven players allowed a positive EPA rate of over 47.1%, and only Pete Werner allows a positive EPA-per-target rate.
The Saints’ defensive backfield is well-coached and immensely talented. If the Jaguars can get them turned around, it will say a lot about their individual talent and Doug Pederson’s schematic excellence.
Jacksonville’s Takeaway Dominance
The Jaguars’ defense might legitimately be good. They seemed to have a lack of talent heading into the season on paper, but they returned continuity from 2022. It’s led to the eighth-best success rate and ninth-best EPA in the league through six weeks.
However, Jacksonville might also be a bit turnover-dependent. They’ve taken the ball away an astronomical 15 times in just six games. But how they’ve done it is likely not sustainable. Fumbles are largely a fluke, and their seven takeaways on the ground are the most in the league.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars’ eight interceptions are also second, but they come with a caveat as well. Six of the eight have come in two games against Desmond Ridder in London and Gardner Minshew. They’re currently second in differential and first in takeaways.
