The Jacksonville Jaguars got their first win of the season last week, defeating an injury-riddled Indianapolis Colts. Trevor Lawrence and Tank Bigsby looked good, leading their offense to four touchdowns against a bad Colts defense. Alarmingly, their defense allowed Joe Flacco to torch them, giving up 359 yards on 8.2 yards per attempt and three touchdowns.
The Chicago Bears had their best outing yet, ranking sixth in offensive EPA (expected points added) against the Carolina Panthers. The Bears’ defense continued its usual success, ranking fourth in EPA (same rank for the whole season).
Let’s look at all the NFL betting odds, picks, predictions, and more for this Sunday morning matchup in London.
- Spread
Bears -1 - Moneyline
Bears (-120); Jaguars (+100) - Over/Under
44.5 total points - Game Time
9:30 a.m. ET - Location
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (London)
Jaguars vs. Bears Best Bets
The Jaguars have been strongest this season on the ground, ranking fifth in rushing EPA. At 5.7 yards per run, they rank second in the league, yet they run the ball less than all but three teams, per TruMedia.
Using play-by-play data, I calculated the proportion of plays the Jaguars have run in certain situations. I defined a positive game script as one in which the team has more than a 70% win probability, a neutral game script when it’s between 30% and 70%, and a negative game script when it’s below 30%.
The Jaguars have spent 79% of their offensive plays in a neutral or negative game script, showing they haven’t had the chance to run the ball. This bodes well for a Bears defense that ranks fourth overall in EPA but 20th against the run and first against the pass.
For the Bears to dictate the game script and help out their defense, they will need a good performance from their offense. I evaluated improvement by calculating the week-by-week trend in each team’s EPA. Using linear regression, I measured the slope of EPA over time for each team. The Bears rank first, showcasing the most improvement in offensive EPA.
The Bears’ significant improvement in offensive EPA might be concerning, given that it came against teams with weaker defenses — namely the Los Angeles Rams, Panthers, Colts, who rank 32nd, 29th, and 20th in defensive EPA, respectively. However, this is less of a concern, as the Jaguars rank 31st in defensive EPA. Caleb Williams has performed his best against Cover 2 and Cover 6 defenses.
The Jaguars run Cover 2 at the second-highest rate in the league, ranking 22nd in EPA when using it. While they deploy Cover 6 at a league-average rate, their performance is even worse in that scheme, ranking 27th.
Overall, the Bears are improving on offense and have a favorable matchup against the Jaguars. If the Bears can come out and take an early lead, forcing the Jaguars to pass, the Bears will win this game. Depending on the pricing, it might even be beneficial to take the Bears’ alternate spread and really lean on the Bears’ advantage in positive and neutral game script situations.
My pick: Bears -1 (-110), Bears ML (-100)
Out of 137 wide receivers with over 80 routes run, Keenan Allen and DJ Moore rank 64th and 66th in yards per route run against man coverage. The Jaguars run man coverage at the third-highest rate in the league.
With Tyson Campbell out, the Jaguars will be deploying Montaric Brown and Ronald Darby at corner. Brown ranks 215th out of 269 defenders in PFF grades against man coverage and Darby ranks 194th. Allen also leads the Bears in target share against man coverage at 28%. Allen is +105 to hit 50 or more receiving yards this week.
Alternate pick: Keenan Allen 50+ receiving yards (+105)
