The Buffalo Bills dominated the Miami Dolphins last week, showing that they are still the cream of the crop in the AFC East and the AFC in general. A fantastic Week 2 performance from the Arizona Cardinals also bids well for the Bills after they took care of business against them in Week 1.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are now 0-2 to start the season, and like last season, their losses are due to incompetence that can and should be fixed — more so than their actual talent. For example, the Jaguars outplayed the Dolphins for much of Week 1 but became way too conservative in the second half and also fumbled in the red zone.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Bills -5 - Moneyline
Bills (-238); Jaguars (+195) - Over/Under
45.5 total points - Start Time
7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Highmark Stadium (Bills)
Jaguars vs. Bills Preview and Prediction
According to TruMedia, Josh Allen ranks second in EPA (expected points added) per drop back. What I find most impressive about this number is that he does it by spreading the ball around.
Robby Greerre at NFELO calculates target concentration for NFL teams using an economic statistic called GINI. This metric tells us the equality of a team’s targets by translating it to a score from zero to one.
A score of one would mean that one player gets all the targets for a team, and a score of zero means every player gets the same amount of targets. The Bills rank first in this metric with a score of 0.685, meaning they spread the ball around to different targets more than anyone else in the NFL this season.
The Jaguars’ defense has struggled to pressure the quarterback this season, ranking 26th in pressure percentage per drop back. Jacksonville loves to play man defense, deploying it the sixth most in the league, which could prove to be a recipe for disaster as Allen ranks fourth in EPA per drop back against man coverage.
The Jaguars’ offense is fourth in incompletions caused by receiver error. They are also tied for third in drops this season, losing the third-most EPA from drops as well.
Despite these woes, Jacksonville has maintained a slightly above-average passing offense and a poor rushing offense. They will go up against a Bills defense that ranks fourth in defensive pass EPA when coverage was the primary reason for an incompletion, as charted by PFF.
This stat, along with Buffalo’s middling pressure generation, shows that its strength on defense comes from the secondary, despite the numerous losses they have incurred throughout the offseason and into the beginning of the regular season.
This should give the Bills an advantage against a Jaguars team that doesn’t sustain drives really well, ranking 21st in drop-back success rate.
My pick: Buffalo Bills -5, ML