The Jacksonville Jaguars‘ outlook revolves around RB Travis Etienne’s declining fantasy football value, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers‘ fantasy preview looks to project WR Chris Godwin after his huge Week 15 performance.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Spread: Jaguars -1
- Total: 43.5
- Jaguars implied points: 22.3
- Buccaneers implied points: 21.3
Quarterbacks
Trevor Lawrence: After four straight usable weeks, Lawrence finished as QB21 last week in a tough spot against the Ravens. His health (head/ankle) has him sitting as questionable this week, but if he clears all hurdles, I’m firing him up with my season on the line.
Only the Commanders allow more passing yards per game than the Buccaneers this season, a flaw that T-Law stands to exploit by extending his streak of games with over 255 passing yards to six straight.
Lawrence’s 41 rushing yards last week were a nice sign of health when it comes to his bulky ankle, and given the volume of late (93 pass attempts over past two games), the upside is appealing.
If the NFL correctly rules Lawrence’s pass to Calvin Ridley as a touchdown last week, there is less concern around his fantasy value this week.
I’m walking the walk on this one — I have Lawrence in a semifinal situation and am 100% planning on playing him with money on the line should he be active for this game.
Baker Mayfield: He gave QB streamers his best effort of the season against the Packers — 22 of 28 for 381 yards and four touchdowns — last week, giving him consecutive 20-point games (both top-12 finishes at the position) for the first time this season.
Was last week the exploitation of a good matchup or a sign of things to come? Probably more the former, but taking good form into a matchup against a strong offense is about as good of an outlook as you can hope for at this point.
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A ceiling game like this is unlikely to be repeated in a more difficult matchup, but with multiple TD passes in six of his past eight games, the floor is stable by streaming standards.
And with Mayfield unlocking Chris Godwin (10 catches for 155 yards), there’s plenty of potential to chase.
Running Backs
Travis Etienne Jr.: With multiple catches in every single game this season and 4+ grabs in four straight, fantasy managers are getting the usage they expected — just not the ceiling production.
Etienne hasn’t posted a top-10 performance since the Week 9 bye and has finished outside the top 25 in half of those games. I’m not worried about his role and have confidence in this offense as a whole — you’re starting Etienne.
The Bucs have allowed multiple rushing scores in three of their past four games, and if we’re betting on a Jaguars player to help extend that streak, Etienne’s name sits atop the list.
Rachaad White: Any ballot for fantasy MVP this season should have White’s name on it. He just continues to build out his case with a touchdown in six of his past seven games.
The versatility has been there all season long, so it’s the three straight 20-carry games that has me thinking the best could be yet to come. White has been a top-10 RB in all three of those games and is putting together a season that his fantasy managers won’t soon forget.
Wide Receivers
Calvin Ridley: After Zay Jones made his initial return to action and Ridley rattled off consecutive top-10 finishes, the latter hasn’t been a top-40 receiver in three straight.
Between dropped passes and missed calls, the argument could certainly be made that Ridley is closer to strong value than his raw numbers suggest. I’m willing to bet on him in the right spot.
The Bucs have won three straight, but they’ve been gashed by a young WR in each of those contests (Jonathan Mingo, Drake London, and Jayden Reed). Based on that, plus Ridley’s talent and usage, is why I’m willing to Flex him.
It’s a leap of faith to a degree, but I get a talented receiver with limited target competition for a motivated team, with (hopefully) their franchise QB under center.
There are worst dice to roll this time of year.
Zay Jones: With Ridley struggling to produce over the past three weeks, Jones’ average finish has been WR38, which is the range I have him this week as long as Lawrence is active.
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This is an advantageous matchup, but we’ve yet to really see Jones do much with his opportunities — 30 targets for 166 yards and zero touchdowns over those aforementioned three games). If you’re flexing him, it’s more a bet on this offense as a whole in this spot than it is confidence in Jones himself.
Mike Evans: If you’ve been riding the Evans’ wave all season long, you’re not pivoting now. His five catches for 65 yards over the past two weeks have been disappointing, but let’s not forget that he averaged six grabs and 104.5 receiving yards in the four games prior to this recent slump.
The TD equity is simply too much to overlook and has landed Evans as a top-30 receiver in eight of his past nine games. You’re playing him without much of a second thought.
Chris Godwin: If Godwin hasn’t completely tanked your season, he’s turning things around down the stretch with a 41.1% target share over his past two games per the Week 16 Cheat Sheet.
Be careful. His high usage has come while Evans is struggling.
Betting on Godwin to produce is a two-leg parlay — you’re betting on Evans’ target share to not bounce back AND for Godwin to be effective with the chances he gets.
The latter has been an issue for the majority of his season and has been trending in the wrong direction for a few years now.
- 2020: 1.87 points per target
- 2021: 1.46 points per target
- 2022: 1.19 points per target
- 2023: 1.12 points per target
Godwin shares a tier this week with both Ravens receivers and Brandin Cooks for me, a spot that lands him just outside of my top 30 at the position.
Tight Ends
Evan Engram: Last week was ugly for all involved in Jacksonville’s offense, but Engram did continue his season-long streak of games with 4+ receptions. The ceiling that we saw from him in Week 14 against the Browns (11 catches for 95 yards and two touchdowns) isn’t what you’re paying for — you’re paying for an elevated floor that isn’t going to submarine your semifinal matchup.
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You can continue to count on Engram. He should bounce back in a significant way against a pass-funnel Buccaneers defense.
Cade Otton: I love the consistently elite snap shares, but at some point, Otton needs to turn opportunity into production to be of interest to us. He hasn’t seen more than five targets in five straight games, and with Godwin showing signs of life, the path to volume simply isn’t there.
I realize that Otton was targeted on the doorstep against the Packers last week and that he has a 20+ yard catch in three of his past four games. But the fourth option in a Mayfield-led offense isn’t of interest to me with my fantasy season on the line, no matter my TE situation.
Should You Start Chris Godwin or Courtland Sutton?
Last week was encouraging for Godwin and discouraging for Denver Broncos WR Courtland Sutton, but I’m not letting an isolated week impact my ranks in a significant way this time of year.
We have a three-month sample size of Sutton owning the edge in valuable usage, and I’m going to trust that over what happened last weekend. Godwin’s skill set isn’t a clean fit to what Baker Mayfield likes to do, and that puts him in a tough spot to repeat his success from a week ago.
Should You Start Cade Otton or Hunter Henry?
I have Otton ranked two spots higher, as I am prioritizing snap share instead of relying on a touchdown. As good as New England Patriots TE Hunter Henry has been recently, there is no denying that betting on this Patriots’ pass game is dancing with the devil.
That’s not to say that relying on the Bucs’ aerial attack is “safe.” It’s not, but their offensive plan is to pass the ball, whereas the Patriots would rather melt the clock and limit the possessions. Neither is a player I’m looking to start this week, but if push comes to shove and you’re streaming the position, I lean toward Otton.
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