The Jacksonville Jaguars spent $175.3 million in guaranteed money during free agency this past offseason. They did everything they could to prevent repeating their disappointing 3-14 2021 season. That included drafting edge rusher Travon Walker No. 1 overall in the 2022 NFL Draft. Now, let’s examine the Jaguars’ current record prediction, their projected win totals, any intriguing bets involving the franchise, and their betting odds to win the division, conference, and Super Bowl in 2023.
All odds are from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise stated and are correct as of July 24 at 12 p.m. ET.
Jacksonville Jaguars record prediction 2022
Following the release of the NFL schedule, Caesars provided odds and spreads for all of the Jaguars’ 2022 regular-season matchups. Based on those numbers, the Jaguars are projected as favorites in two games, underdogs in 14 games, and a push in one. If the season matches those predictions, the Jaguars will finish the 2022 season with a 2-14-1 record.
The 2021 Jaguars endured drama as we’ve rarely seen in the NFL. Former head coach Urban Meyer was an immediate disaster and was replaced before the end of his first season. Jacksonville wisely hired a reputable and well-liked head coach in Doug Pederson to steer the ship in the right direction.
[bet-promo id=”174860″ ]Currently projected to finish in third place of the AFC South behind the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans, the Jaguars have low expectations. Though they’re favored in just two games, six of their games have a three-point spread or less. Their range of outcomes is large.
The Jaguars’ 2022 schedule ranks 26th in strength. Notably, they start the season with three of their first four games on the road. Those road games are at Washington, at the Los Angeles Chargers, and at Philadelphia.
Jaguars odds, picks, and props
Now that we know the sportsbooks prediction for the Jaguars on a week-by-week basis, let’s take a look at their season-long odds for win totals, the division, conference, and the Super Bowl.
- Jaguars win total: 6.5 (over +110, under -130)
- AFC South winner: +700
- AFC winner: 65-to-1
- Super Bowl winner: 130-to-1
The Jaguars are a fascinating team because they worked hard to raise the floor of what was an underachieving roster last year. Based on their talent, Jacksonville should not have finished 3-14 in 2021. But coaching matters and the worst case happened at every turn.
No team invested as heavily into their roster as the Jaguars did this offseason. They completely reset the salary market at several positions thanks to receiver Christian Kirk’s $72 million deal, guard Brandon Scherff’s $49.5 million deal, and linebacker Foye Oluokun’s $45 million deal. Those are solid players who immediately bolster positions of need, even if they’re terrible values for their production.
Most teams that win free agency see a heightened win total for the following season. However, the Jaguars didn’t see that boost. It’s clear oddsmakers don’t see this young roster as being ready to compete more frequently.
Jaguars MVP odds and player props
It would take a miracle for the Jaguars to produce the NFL’s MVP, but that doesn’t mean there’s no value to be had elsewhere. Jacksonville boasts the top overall pick from this past draft and a first-year head coach, for example. There’s value to be had in the Jaguars’ awards props and player props.
- MVP
Trevor Lawrence 80-to-1 - Travis Etienne regular-season rushing yards
Over/Under 705.5 (-115) - Most interceptions thrown in NFL
Trevor Lawrence +1000 - Travon Walker regular-season sacks
Over 6.25 (-125)/Under 6.25 (-105) - Defensive Rookie of the Year
Travon Walker +750
Devin Lloyd +1000 - Comeback Player of the Year
Travis Etienne +2500 - Coach of the Year
Doug Pederson +1800
We have several options for betting on the Jaguars’ players and awards props. Not all of them are overly intriguing, especially the more prestigious awards. To win MVP or Coach of the Year, there must be a blend of team achievement, personal performance, and a great storyline. Neither Lawrence nor Pederson are likely to hit all three of those criteria in a big enough way to prove to be a value bet.
I’d also pass on Etienne’s odds to win Comeback Player of the Year. He’s explosive and will get a lot of touches, but Etienne’s going up against a quarterback in Jameis Winston and two star running backs in Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey. Etienne’s lack of NFL cache gives him almost no shot to win.
There is value on the player prop bets, though. Etienne, Walker, and Lawrence all have favorable lines, since each will be given limitless opportunities to succeed as young cornerstone pieces. Let’s dive into their props below.
Jaguars 2022 picks
I like Etienne to easily clear the over on his 700.5 rushing yard line. He won’t have to deal with incumbent James Robinson stealing too many of his touches right away as the latter returns from a brutal Achilles tear. Robinson isn’t rushing back; he knows he’s fighting for what might be his only big NFL contract. Thus, taking his time can help his chances of getting that deal in the future.
Jacksonville’s commitment to the run will continue under Pederson but it’ll be more efficient. Not only will the Jaguars benefit from Pederson’s wide-zone run scheme, but we’ll see better blocking with Scherff added. It wouldn’t be surprising if Pederson’s presence helps Cam Robinson, Ben Bartch, and Jawaan Taylor play better as well considering his work developing an amazing line in Philadelphia.
We could grab Lawrence’s prop on leading the NFL in interceptions, but I don’t love that value. It’s possible because my comparison for Lawrence was always Winston, so turnovers will come with the aggression. But everything around him has been upgraded, and there are simply less talented quarterbacks in worse situations playing this year.
I will take Walker’s over on 6.25 sacks. Not many rookies clear the seven-sack number in Year 1, but Walker benefits from lowered expectations due to his collegiate production. Walker is an amazing athlete who executed his role at Georgia perfectly. I wouldn’t have taken him No. 1, but it’s also not as egregious as some suggested. He’ll benefit from Josh Allen’s presence across from him and get at least 6.5 sacks this season.
However, his and Lloyd’s Defensive Rookie of the Year odds are not tempting enough for me. Both have significant competition for their raw numbers, and that cannibalization strips their ability to win awards from a loaded defensive draft.
The other potential play is the Jaguars’ team wins. As it stands, 6.5 is a difficult number, considering the structure of their schedule. They can only go over 6.5 if they upset a solid playoff contender or sweep the Titans. I don’t see that happening even if I like a lot of what this franchise did this offseason.
1u: Jaguars under 6.5 wins (130)
1u: Etienne over 700.5 rushing yards (-115)
1u: Walker over 6.25 sacks (-125)