The Jacksonville Jaguars entered 2024 with high expectations following back-to-back winning seasons under Doug Pederson. After a late-season collapse and an injury to Trevor Lawrence kept the Jags out of the NFL postseason in 2023, the 2024 season was supposed to be one of redemption for Jacksonville.
Instead, the Jags were the last winless team and have been a out of the playoff race for quite some time. Using Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor, let’s pivot the other way and look at their chances to pick at the top of the draft.
What Does the NFL Draft Order Look Like After Week 13?
Here is the top 10 of the 2025 NFL Draft order following Week 13.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars, 2-10
2. Las Vegas Raiders, 2-10
3. New York Giants, 2-10
4. New England Patriots, 3-10
5. Carolina Panthers, 3-9
6. New York Jets, 3-9
7. Tennessee Titans, 3-9
8. Cleveland Browns, 3-9
9. Cincinnati Bengals, 4-8
10. New Orleans Saints, 4-8
Will the Jaguars Finish With the First Overall Pick?
Can the Jaguars pick first overall in the 2025 NFL Draft? The PFN Playoff Predictor projects that Jacksonville has an 10.6% chance of ending up with the first overall pick, the fifth-highest of any team.
Jaguars’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 14: at Tennessee Titans
- Week 15: vs. New York Jets
- Week 16: at Las Vegas Raiders
- Week 17: vs. Tennessee Titans
- Week 18: at Indianapolis Colts
What PFN Predicted for Texans at Jaguars
The Texans clearly are better than the two-win Jaguars, but the same was true of their matchup against the two-win Titans entering Week 12. With how mistake-prone the Texans have been at times and Lawrence’s expected return for Jacksonville, it would be foolish to overlook the Jags’ prospects in this game.
That said, Jacksonville is not nearly as problematic of a matchup for Houston, particularly the Jaguars’ defense. Houston’s greatest weakness has been pass protection, as the Texans rank 25th in pressure rate and 26th in sack rate allowed. However, the Jaguars’ defense ranks only 27th in pressure rate and 28th in sack rate.
Similarly, Houston depends on big plays to sustain its offensive production, which should be viable for this week. The Texans’ offense has the sixth-highest rate of explosive plays, while the Jaguars’ defense has the third-highest rate of explosive plays allowed.
On the other side, the Texans’ defense ranks third in sack rate after its eight-sack outing against the Titans, while the Jags rank 18th in sack rate allowed. With left tackle Cam Robinson traded weeks ago and Will Anderson Jr. back from injury, Houston should be able to put Lawrence under duress in his return.
The Texans have lost a lot of faith as a Super Bowl contender, and their flaws are likely too prominent to overcome against the class of the AFC. However, the Jaguars are far from that stratosphere, and it would be shocking to see Houston face plant in consecutive weeks against division cellar-dwellers.
PFN Prediction: Texans 28, Jaguars 20