The Jacksonville Jaguars entered 2024 with high expectations following back-to-back winning seasons under Doug Pederson. After a late-season collapse and an injury to Trevor Lawrence kept the Jags out of the postseason in 2023, 2024 was supposed to be a redemption season for Jacksonville.
Instead, the Jags were the last winless team and have been a playoff long shot for quite some time. Using Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor, let’s take a look at the latest odds for the Jaguars to return to the playoffs, which are about zero after suffering the worst loss in franchise history to the Detroit Lions in Week 11.
Can the Jacksonville Jaguars Make the Playoffs?
After all the action in Week 11, the Jacksonville Jaguars are 2-9 and now have a 0.6% chance to make the playoffs.
They have a 0.0% chance for the 1 seed, a 0.0% chance for the second seed, a 0.0% chance for the third seed, a 0.4% chance for the fourth seed, a 0.0% chance for the fifth seed, a 0.0% chance for the sixth seed, and a 0.2% chance for the seventh seed.
Can the Jaguars Win the AFC South?
Here’s what the AFC South race looks like after all the Sunday action in Week 11:
- The Houston Texans have an 81.4% chance to win the AFC South.
- The Indianapolis Colts have a 16.9% chance to win the AFC South.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have a 0.4% chance to win the AFC South.
- The Tennessee Titans have a 1.3% chance to win the AFC South.
Current AFC South Standings
- Houston Texans (7-4)
- Indianapolis Colts (5-6)
- Tennessee Titans (2-8)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9)
Jaguars’ Super Bowl Chances After Week 11
Can the Jaguars win the Super Bowl? The PFN Playoff Predictor projects that Jacksonville has a 0.0% chance to win it all.
Jaguars’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 12: BYE
- Week 13: vs. Texans
- Week 14: at Titans
- Week 15: vs. Jets
- Week 16: at Raiders
- Week 17: vs. Titans
- Week 18: at Colts
What PFN Predicted for the Jaguars vs. Lions Matchup
The Detroit Lions are 14-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, making the Jaguars the largest underdog of the season if that line holds.
Frankly, there’s not much suggesting the Jags can keep it competitive in Detroit on Sunday. Jacksonville’s defense has the second-worst EPA per play average entering Week 11, ahead of only the Carolina Panthers. Now they face a Lions offense that ranks sixth in EPA per play and third in success rate.
In particular, the Jaguars are the worst defense in terms of EPA per dropback allowed. While Jared Goff is coming off of a five-interception catastrophe against Houston, Goff has been extremely efficient otherwise in 2024. Even after the Week 10 calamity, Goff ranks sixth in EPA per dropback this season.
On the other side, Lawrence is set to miss his second consecutive game with a left shoulder injury. The only good news is that Pederson stated he was optimistic that Lawrence would return after two missed games with the team on bye in Week 12.
Jaguars HC Doug Pederson says QB Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) will be out this week. Optimistic that he can play after the bye week.
— Michael DiRocco (@ESPNdirocco) November 13, 2024
With Mac Jones making his first start last week, the Jaguars could not take advantage of three Sam Darnold interceptions and scored a season-low seven points. Jacksonville had a meager total of 143 yards, its fewest in a game since 2018.
The Lions have the highest Super Bowl odds of any team entering Week 11, while the Jags are one of the few teams that PFN sees with a 0% chance of winning it all. That summarizes the lopsided nature of this game quite nicely.
PFN Prediction: Lions 34, Jaguars 13