Fantasy football managers need to start the week off on a high note, and there are certainly some upside plays to consider in the first game of Week 7. The Jacksonville Jaguars fantasy outlook details the hierarchy of their pass catchers while the New Orleans Saints fantasy preview revolves around a star who needs to rebound to pay off his preseason hype.
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TNF Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints
- Spread: Saints -1
- Total: 39.5
- Jaguars implied points: 19.3
- Saints implied points: 20.3
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
He suffered a knee bruise late in the convincing win over the Indianapolis Colts, which requires monitoring. We need to pay attention to not just his activity in practice but also the words surrounding his mobility, as he has run for 15+ yards in five of six games — putting him on pace for 416 yards on the ground (previous career high: 334).
The Jacksonville Jaguars managed to play from ahead in Week 6 thanks to some strong running from Travis Etienne, which put Lawrence in position to disappoint his fantasy managers again. He has yet to score 18 fantasy points in a single game this season (under 16.5 points in five straight), a mark that both Zach Wilson and Mac Jones have hit this season.
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On the bright side, Lawrence has completed at least two-thirds of his passes in five of six games this season, and when paired with the rushing, that gives him hope. However, his only games with multiple touchdown tosses this season have come against the Colts, a team he won’t see again until 2024.
There are six teams on a bye this week, and that is the reason Lawrence remains in my top 10 (assuming health).
Derek Carr, QB, New Orleans Saints
He piled up 353 yards through the air in the 20-13 loss to the Houston Texans, but managed only one score on 50 pass attempts (32 completions). For the season, Carr is averaging a touchdown once every 40 attempts, a rate that simply makes fantasy relevance impossible for a pocket passer.
For what it’s worth, he has looked healthier (shoulder) with each passing week, though his 51-yard completion to Rashid Shaheed was a ball that looked like Carr put everything he had into, and it still required the receiver to come back to the ball as opposed to hitting him in stride.
Travis Etienne Jr., RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Etienne may have averaged only 3.1 yards per carry against the Colts last week (his third game this season under 3.5 YPC), but he checked every other box you could ask for in the win.
On 21 touches, he finished with 83 yards and a pair of scores, the second of which came on a direct snap (22 yards). The Jaguars are committed to unleashing their second year back, and his blend of power/speed/versatility makes him an easy RB1 the rest of the way.
The Week 7 contest with the Saints looks tough on paper, and while it’s not a plus-matchup, I’d caution worrying too much in this spot. New Orleans played Derrick Henry in Week 1 but hasn’t faced much in the way of fantasy-viable running backs since then.
That’s not to say they’re a bad run defense, we just don’t know that they’re as good as the raw numbers (under 4.0 yards per carry and top 10 in rushing yardage allowed per game) suggest.
Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints
He is averaging 25 touches per game this season (three games played) and while the efficiency leaves plenty to be desired (3.8 yards per touch without a gain of more than 15 yards), that role is nothing short of elite.
Will this workload sustain with Jamaal Williams eligible to return from IR this week? Not likely, but in the short-term, Kamara is an easy RB2, even against a Jaguars defense that is better than league average in both red zone conversion rate and yards per carry.
Kamara’s lack of scoring upside will catch up to him as the usage dips, but considering that he accounted for 101.5% of Saints’ RB rushing yards last week against the Texans (you read that right!), there should be no hesitation about locking him into lineups in all formats.
Jamaal Williams, RB, New Orleans Saints
The Saints’ offense ranks fifth-worst at turning red zone trips into scores (36.8% – only the Titans, Giants, Jets, and Steelers have been worse). This is a clear indicator to me that Williams will fill a similar role that he held in Detroit last season, with Kamara being a version of 2022 D’Andre Swift.
No, that doesn’t mean I think Williams will lead the league in rushing scores from this point forward, but it does mean that once he proves his health, he can be a viable flex option as we get into the grind of the season.
If he is available in your league, while your league-mates may wait to see him prove his health, I’d scoop him up now. I’m just going to start listing teams, and you let me know when I get to an imposing defense that scares you:
- Colts, Bears, Vikings, Falcons, Lions, Panthers, Giants, Rams, Buccaneers
I know this is a written medium, but I doubt you tried to stop me. Those are the opponents the Saints have after this week for the remainder of the fantasy season (a second meeting with the Falcons in Week 18 if your league extends that far). If he carves out even an 8-12 touch role, he could well be a weekly option.
Kendre Miller, RB, New Orleans Saints
He might be the running back of the future, but he’s certainly not the running back of the present in New Orleans. Miller hauled in Carr’s second pass of Week 6 and went on to touch the ball only two more times the rest of the afternoon.
He ran a route on 66.7% of his snaps last week and that would be a valuable role if this backfield was just he and Williams, but with Kamara profiling as the lead back, this offense has the pass-catching RB role satisfied.
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In August, we wanted to bet on the draft capital spent on Miller (third-round pick) and embrace the uncertainty of this backfield. It made plenty of sense then, but it doesn’t now. The rookie doesn’t need to remain on rosters now with every bench spot mattering and requiring a more clear path to starting consideration.
Calvin Ridley, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Eight targets against the Colts were what we expected (at least seven targets in five of six games this season), but being held to 40 or fewer yards for the fourth time in five games was not.
The looks have been there, but the lack of efficiency has been officially upgraded from concerning to red flag territory.
You can expect an Amber Alert-like notification on your phone any minute now as we here at Soppe HQ have deployed the troops in an effort to find the connection between Lawrence and Ridley – it looked so promising in Week 1 (eight catches on 11 targets against the same Colts that held him in check last week) and in London (nine catches on 10 targets).
In his past three games stateside, Ridley has caught nine of 23 targets for 102 yards and zero touchdowns. With Marshon Lattimore likely in his vicinity this weekend, Ridley is my second favorite Jaguar receiver for the first time this season. You hate to see it.
Christian Kirk, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Another week, another double-digit fantasy point effort from Kirk. That gives him five in a row, all of which have included a catch that gained over 25 yards.
His profile is soaked in potential upside like Ridley’s, but his ability to earn valuable looks from the slot and over a full season of experience with Lawrence is proving valuable. He has scored or cleared 75 yards in every game since the Week 1 dud, and nothing in the numbers suggests that he is producing above his head.
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As long as Lawrence is deemed healthy, Kirk should be viewed as a solid WR2. Even if Lawrence were to sit, his precise route running and depth of target make him less QB-sensitive than a player like Ridley. He’s easily looking like the best draft-day value among the Jacksonville receivers.
Zay Jones, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Jones sat out Weeks 3-4 with a knee injury and was forced to miss Week 6 after hurting the knee late in Week 5. It’s worth noting that Jones was initially labeled as day-to-day coming out of Week 5, so there is hope he can return to action this week.
That said, at best, he’s a sneaky DFS play or a hopeful Flex in times of desperation. The Jags went to more two receiver sets last week (Jamal Agnew was the WR3 and only on the field for 31.3% of snaps), and that could be a result of Jones sitting rather than a change in scheme, but it’s something worth monitoring.
If Jones passes all health hurdles AND you’re afraid of the Lattimore matchup for Ridley, you could talk yourself into Jones being an upside Flex play in his return to action. At the moment, there is too much risk for me to rank him as such (outside of my top 35 at the position), but the path to production is at least reasonable.
Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
It feels as if we are teetering on a breakout Olave game. He totaled 96 yards on 10 targets against the Texans last week (his fourth double-digit target effort of the season), and that was with some food left on the plate courtesy of an errant Carr throw.
His season game log is basically a barometer of Carr’s health.
- Week 1: 8 catches for 112 yards
- Week 2: 6 catches for 86 yards
- Week 3: 8 catches for 104 yards
- Week 4: 1 catch for 4 yards (Carr injured)
- Week 5: 2 catches for 12 yards and a TD (Carr limited)
- Week 6: 7 catches for 96 yards (Carr nearing full strength)
The Jags are a bottom-10 defense in terms of yards per pass attempt and sacks, two flaws that lead me to believe Olave should continue to produce at his usual star level.
Lock him in as a top-12 receiver and buckle up – that explosion week is coming sooner than later!
Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints
Through six weeks this season, there is no easier player to project than Thomas in the NFL. He has seen 6-9 targets and produced 45-65 yards without a touchdown in all six games this season. Until we see that change, you know (almost exactly) what you’re getting from him.
Now, that will hold more value this week than others, given the volume of byes and assortment of injuries, but his value to you is largely dependent on your situation.
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If you’re a 2-4 team looking for a midseason spark, Thomas isn’t your guy and you’d be wise to deal him for a player with more of a ceiling (maybe like Gabe Davis or, further down the board, Rashee Rice). If you’ve built a powerhouse team and are fine with 7.5-9.5 points weekly, hold tight – there isn’t a player better suited for that role.
I have him ranked outside of my top 35 this week, in the same range as the aforementioned Rice and not too far ahead of his boom-or-bust teammate…
Rashid Shaheed, WR, New Orleans Saints
With a 40+ yard play in seven of his past 12 games, Shaheed is the perfect – “I need upside during this tough bye week” – play. Obviously, the floor is as low as it gets (seven catches over the past month), but there is no denying the upside when a healthy Carr looks his way.
He scored from 34 yards out against the Texans on a skinny post where Carr hit him in stride and then pulled down a 51-yard rainbow that was poorly thrown. Two catches, 15.5 fantasy points.
In the scope of WR3s on his own team, I prefer to chase the ceiling of Shaheed over players like Jayden Reed or Tutu Atwell. He’s outside of my top 40 at the position this week, but much like Thomas (in a completely different way), your willingness to plug-and-play him hinges on the roster you’ve built.
Evan Engram, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars
I mentioned the narrow range of outcomes for Michael Thomas within the receiver writeups, and Engram has proven to be the TE version of that (7-8 targets in five straight games, 41-67 yards in five of six this season).
Like Thomas, Engram has yet to score, and when he does, he’ll post a top-five week, given that this level of volume is difficult to find at the tight end position.
Probably my favorite play from Sunday. #Colts dare #Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence to rip the honey call vs Cov 2 and he puts it on Evan Engram who makes an insane grab. pic.twitter.com/BNzwD7gGHG
— Rob G (@NFL_Rob) October 17, 2023
Different from Thomas is the state of the position. While a boring/consistent stat line relegates you to the bench at WR, at TE, it’s almost God-status. He is my TE3 this week, with T.J. Hockenson and Sam LaPorta in more difficult spots. Engram is a rare player at the position who allows you to gain ground on the majority of your league consistently.
Taysom Hill, TE, New Orleans Saints
The offensive weapon that is Hill is coming off of easily his best day ever as a pass-catcher. He caught six of Carr’s first 16 completions, and his seven catches matched Olave for the game-high.
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Hill carried the rock once and threw a pass in the win, but with Juwan Johnson (calf) out, Hill ran a route on 70.8% of his snaps. He is the unquestioned TE with Johnson out (19 more routes run in Week 6 than Foster Moreau), and ranks inside my top-15 at the position this week.
Who Should You Start in Week 7?
Should I Start Trevor Lawrence or Brock Purdy?
I currently have Lawrence ranked one spot above Brock Purdy, the thought being that the health of his playmakers is a tie-breaker. There are question marks on Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel heading into Monday night, statuses that I believe impact Purdy’s stock more than Lawrence’s bulky knee does.
Should I Start Chris Olave or DK Metcalf?
As mentioned, Olave rebounded with a 10-target 96-yard effort against the Texans last week — that’s enough for me to count on him over Metcalf. Especially in a matchup against a team that has held him to just five yards per target throughout his career.
Both star receivers should be started with confidence, but if we are picking one option, give me the healthier choice that has less target competition.