The Jacksonville Jaguars gave everyone a peek at their opening day offense in Thursday’s third preseason contest with multiple expected starters making their debut. Here is a look at what to expect from Nick Foles and company in 2019.
The wide receivers and their usage
One of the biggest questions heading into training camp for the Jacksonville Jaguars was who would start at the outside receiver positions. It appears we now have the answer. Second-year breakout candidate D.J. Chark and veteran free agent Chris Conley look to be the starters outside. Dede Westbrook, of course, will be the slot receiver, and likely lead the team in targets once again. Unsurprisingly, he led all players with seven targets in Miami Thursday night.
The faces lining up outside won’t be the only change to the passing game. There will also be more three-receiver sets used this season. In 2018, new offensive coordinator John DeFilippo employed 11-personnel (one back, one tight end, three receivers) 70% of the time in Minnesota good for 9th most over that span (the first 14 weeks of 2018). The Jaguars were a touch below league average at 64% (25th).
There is also likely to be a slight uptick in rushing out of 11-personnel. Something Jacksonville did at one of the lowest rates (46%, 25th) in the league in 2018. DeFilippo’s usage came in at 50% (17th). A bruising offensive line, running back also play into a potential increase.
Combine John DeFilippo’s tendencies with a featured slot receiver and you have a recipe for an offense that should easily be top-10 in 11-personnel usage in 2019.
The starting offense line
Another critical issue was how the starting offensive line would shake out. Would the tackles be healthy in time to start the season? What happens with Will Richardson now that Jawaan Taylor is in the fold?
Thus far, things appear to be going according to plan. Both Cam Robinson and Jawaan Taylor made their preseason debuts Thursday night. While long-expected, the sight of Robinson in a “real” game has to come as a sigh of relief. The staff (and myself) really thought the Alabama product was making major strides before his devastating injury last season. His health will be paramount for the Jacksonville Jaguars’ offense.
In what may be a surprise to some, Will Richardson has supplanted veteran A.J. Cann as the starting right guard. However, less surprising if you have listened to head coach Doug Marrone this summer. Recently, coach Marrone spoke about Richardson’s year-two turnaround:
I’ll tell you what, this kid, I don’t know what happened, I don’t know what transpired — I’m not trying to get into his head — but he has really, really turned the corner and is playing well to a point where he’s battling for a starting position with a guy that has played a lot of football games here. It’s great for us. It’s great for our football team.
All-Pro guard Andrew Norwell also returned to action from a quadricep injury that sidelined him for a week. While not terribly noteworthy on its own, it’s another sigh of relief after an injury-plagued 2018. Plus, it gave us our first look at the future of the Jaguars’ left side since opening week last season. It was only a couple of series, but nonetheless encouraging to see.
The revamped offensive line has finally come together. After a nightmarish year of injuries, inconsistency, and juggled lineups, the Jacksonville Jaguars may mercifully have some stability up front. The health and performance of this starting group could be the determining factor in the team’s 2019 success.
The return of play-action passing
When the Jacksonville Jaguars were near the top of the AFC, their offense relied heavily on their play-action game. It was a crucial aspect of their identity. In 2017, they used play-action on 23% (12th) of their passing plays with a stellar 50.4% (4th) Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Without play-action? Their passing DVOA plummeted to 1.7%.
Turn the page to the 2018 season. The Jaguars play-action usage fell to 19% (28th) while the DVOA dropped to -31.0% (32nd). The team went from being 50.4% better with play-action in 2017 to 17.5% worse in 2018 despite a considerably less extreme drop from 1.7% to -13.5% in standard passing. Their strength, their identity, became their biggest weakness.
There was a similar play-action trend for John DeFilippo from the previous seasons. With the Philadelphia Eagles (and Nick Foles part-time) in 2017, he used play-action 27% (4th) of the time at 15.0% (20th) DVOA. Not eye-popping production from a big play standpoint, but consistent enough to keep the offense on schedule.
Fast-forward to 2018 with the Minnesota Vikings. The usage was modest at 21% (25th), but the results were fantastic at 40.3% (7th) DVOA. An increase of 33.8% over standard passing. Very much in line with the big play profile Jacksonville featured in 2017.
So, why the usage decrease for both DeFilippo and the Jaguars in 2018? One common denominator was poor pass protection. When teams are struggling to protect the passer, coaches do not like to call play-action (and quarterbacks really don’t like it). It’s tempting fate.
The 2019 offensive outlook
So, we now know what the starting lineup will look like. They have quality talent, size, and power upfront with speed to burn outside. Leonard Fournette returns as a bruising, bell-cow back. New offensive coordinator John DeFilippo brings experience with using play-action both heavily (2017), and opportunistically (2018). He also coached Foles previously in Philadelphia.
The ingredients are here for a competent offense at the very least. Granted, a lot has to go right. The line needs to gel quickly and stay healthy. The inexperienced wide receiver group has to step up. Fournette needs to rebound. But, if things break their way, the Jacksonville Jaguars could find themselves heading back to the playoffs.