The Jacksonville Jaguars‘ fantasy outlook breaks down the target shares with WR Christian Kirk out, while the Cleveland Browns‘ preview highlights the fantasy football consistency of RB Jerome Ford.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns
- Spread: Browns -1.5
- Total: 34
- Jaguars implied points: 16.3
- Browns implied points: 17.8
Quarterbacks
Trevor Lawrence: As of this writing, Lawrence’s status remains up in the air, so make sure to check back as we near kickoff. I’ll keep this article updated with the most recent news, but our PFN News Tracker is also a great resource for the latest happenings across the league.
Lawrence has produced back-to-back-to-back top-six finishes at the position (he didn’t have a single such game this season prior), and while the passing metrics are ticking up (69.7% completion percentage, 8.9 yards per attempt), the four rushing touchdowns over that stretch is the fantasy difference-maker.
MORE: Fantasy News Tracker
The Browns are the fourth-best defense on a per-pass-attempt basis, and the tough matchup combined with health concerns, are preventing me from locking in Lawrence should he play (my QB11). But I’m encouraged by his recent play, and if he clears all physical hurdles, he’ll be the QB1 that you thought you were drafting back in August.
Running Backs
Travis Etienne Jr.: With multiple catches in every game this season and an unquestioned lead role in this backfield, Etienne remains an elite option in all formats.
I’m not thrilled that he doesn’t have a touch gaining more than 20 yards in four straight games or that Lawrence has been handling the goal-line rushing duties (we’ll see if that continues), but you’re picking nits.
Etienne’s versatility makes him the type of high-floor RB that often appears on championship rosters. With Christian Kirk banged up, the target count only stands to increase, which gives me confidence in labeling Etienne as a top-10 running back both this week and for the remainder of the season.
Jerome Ford: He just does it every week. Ford has now returned no worse than RB2 value in five straight games and in seven of eight since Cleveland’s bye.
The declining volume is obviously a concern as we talk about sustainability (three straight weeks under 15 touches), but with at least five targets or a touchdown in eight of 11 games (starting with the game in which Nick Chubb was lost for the season), Ford has proven to be a consistent fantasy force.
This week, he gets a better-than-you-think Jaguars run defense. But with Joe Flacco under center and this team motivated to bleed clock, I see no reason Ford can’t continue his run of success.
Do I worry about projecting him as such for the remainder of the season? I do — games against the Bears, Texans, and Jets are not a clean run out. That said, we’re talking about the here and now. We’re talking about Week 14 — a week that could hold your playoff fate in its hands. In that scenario, I’m willing to trust Ford this week and ask questions later.
Kareem Hunt: Hunt continues to work behind Ford (trailed 36-25 in snaps and 19-7 in routes on Sunday), and while he has reached double-digit carries in seven of eight games over the past two months, you’d really have to squint to make him a viable Flex option.
The lack of involvement in the passing game (one receiving yard since the beginning of November) creates a terrifyingly low floor, which means you’re banking on a committee back to score short touchdowns in an offense that has scored a total of 44 points over their past three games.
I don’t mind holding onto Hunt; 12-15 touches aren’t available on most waiver wires, though, I think you’re getting a little too cute if you’re trying to slide him into starting lineups this week.
Wide Receivers
Calvin Ridley: Last week wasn’t pretty (26 yards on eight targets), but was he far away from being viable? The target count was right where you want it to be.
Ridley had a 43-yard catch called back due to an offensive holding category, and he was handed the ball three times. Most of us buy Ridley as a strong talent, so the fact that Jacksonville is scheming up ways to give him a chance to produce is really all I need to see when it comes to my willingness to bank on him down the stretch.
For the season, Ridley has four top 10s, and all have come in games in which Zay Jones was active. As long as Jones is on the field demanding perimeter attention, Ridley is going to be a top-25 player for me when Lawrence plays.
MORE: PPR Rankings
The math changes should Lawrence sit, though. Ridley would fall into the Flex conversation. While the upside remains strong, the floor is even lower in that event, and he becomes more of a strategy play than anything. But if Lawrence is under center and Jones is lining up on the perimeter, sign me up for Ridley being a top-20 performer at the position.
Christian Kirk: After suffering a core injury on the first play Monday night, Kirk never returned, and he will be sidelined through this week. It should go without saying, but I’ll say it anyway — barring news, Kirk needs to remain rostered in all formats.
Zay Jones: With Kirk out for the majority of the game, Jones was much more involved last week than he had been since returning from injury.
- Week 13: Five receptions on eight targets for 78 yards
- Weeks 11-12 (total): Five receptions on seven targets for 30 yards
His target expectancy goes up with Kirk sidelined and should Lawrence manage to suit up, Jones will climb to a low-end WR3 in my rankings. Even in this instance, he’s third in the Jaguars’ target hierarchy and fourth among skill-position players in TD equity.
The upside is very much limited, and I’m not counting on starting Jones this week. His greatest value to fantasy football 2023 is the freedom he gives Ridley.
Amari Cooper: A concussion knocked him out of last week’s game, and I’m operating under the assumption that the injury will sideline him through this week as well. In his absence, Elijah Moore saw 29.3% of Joe Flacco’s targets (his former teammate in New York) and was the clear-cut comfort option for the veteran QB.
If Flacco remains under center and Cooper is out, Moore will be flirting within my top 30 wide receivers. I don’t think the featured role was a mistake, and when you consider that 73.8% of yards gained against the Jags come through the air (third highest), I view the floor as reasonably stable.
In this world, I’m playing Moore over Tyler Lockett and, in this game, Zay Jones.
Tight Ends
Evan Engram: It’s about damn time that this man found the end zone! Engram has been a strong fantasy asset all season long, thanks to his volume and catch rate, but it was good to see him finally break the scoring seal on Monday night against the Bengals.
Will the TDs now come in bunches? They don’t need to. He’s seen 91 targets this season, and by hauling in 80.2% of them, Engram’s floor is higher than 95% of tight ends.
He’s a strong option in all formats, and it shouldn’t have taken a touchdown for people to realize that he’s one of the most reliable we have in the game at the position.
David Njoku: A 24.8% target share in the three games Watson has missed is impressive, and with Cooper potentially sidelined, the volume of looks alone keeps Njoku inside of my top 12 this week.
Flacco wasn’t elite on Sunday in his season debut against the Rams, but he showed command of the offense in a way that the other backups on this roster have proven incapable. More importantly, the team let him throw 44 passes.
MORE: Yates’ Fantasy Football TE Rest-of-Season Rankings Week 14
We know that Flacco isn’t shy to check down and take what the defense is giving him, something I think we see plenty of this week against a top-10 defense in terms of blitz rate.
With a passing script the most likely outcome in this spot, managers looking to get by at the position can feel good about Njoku returning enough value to keep you competitive with the teams that don’t have an elite TE rostered.
Should You Start Adam Thielen or Calvin Ridley?
I’m siding with Ridley here, even if QB Trevor Lawrence sits out. With Kirk sidelined, I don’t think the target difference between Carolina Panthers WR Adam Thielen and Ridley will be great, so I’m betting on more of the unknown.
In Carolina, we know that every target Thielen earns comes with very limited potential, whereas there is hope in Jacksonville for Ridley’s targets to be worth slightly more than that.
To be honest, I’m not all that comfortable starting either this week, but I would go with the single-play upside of Ridley if forced to choose.
Should You Start Taysom Hill or David Njoku?
Njoku has been vacuuming in targets from backup quarterbacks in Cleveland, and that creates a stable floor, but his ceiling is nowhere near that of the utility knife that is New Orleans Saints TE Taysom Hill. It’s very clear that Hill’s versatility is now a feature of this Saints offense, and with QB Derek Carr banged up, that role stands to grow.
The goal-line role alone for Hill puts him inside of my top 10, and the fact that we can expect 10-ish opportunities has him flirting with my top five at the position.
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