Fantasy football could get off to a fun start on Sunday with two high-powered offenses playing in London. The Jacksonville Jaguars‘ fantasy outlook centers around their receiver room, while the breakdown for the Buffalo Bills‘ fantasy prospects dives into the value of their emerging running back.
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Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (London)
- Spread: Bills -5.5
- Total: 48.5
- Jaguars implied points: 21.5
- Bills implied points: 27
Quarterbacks
Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence has yet to score 18 fantasy points in a game this season and has only thrown multiple touchdown passes in just one of his past seven regular season games. Those aren’t great trends to take into a matchup against a Bills defense that held the Dolphins to 20 points and owns a +90-point differential during their three-game win streak.
But all hope is not lost. Lawrence has cleared 20 rushing yards in three of four games this season. He dialed back his aDOT (season-low 6.0 yards) last week in an effort to pick up some easy yards. With all five of his primary pass catchers capable of making plays in space, this week might offer the best path for Lawrence to get back on track.
The Bills lost Tre’Davious White (Achilles) last week and will be forced to compensate for that hole in their defense on a tough travel week. This matchup may not seem like a great spot, but if the underlying trends continue and this Bills offense stays hot, Lawrence could find himself in a favorable game script. I’ve got Lawrence as a top-10 play and a good bet to produce more in his second week across the pond than the first.
Josh Allen: Are we seeing even greater development of Allen right before our eyes? It’s obviously early, but his aDOT is down 18.5% from last season, he’s completed over 70% of his passes in three of four games, and he has three straight games with under five rush attempts (he only had two such games in the 2022 regular season).
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These developments, if sustained, are positive for most involved. If the reckless plays are reduced, we may get fewer extreme ceiling performances, but his fantasy floor certainly improves. These changes would make the Bills a more formidable postseason team where every mistake is magnified, so I believe they are motivated to encourage and nurture this growth.
This is the path for Allen to become the best quarterback in fantasy this season: being a true mix between Mahomes and Hurts. He gets a good chance to prove his discipline in London this weekend against a Jags defense that not only features his namesake but also a top-10 pressure rate with a league-average blitz percentage.
Running Backs
Travis Etienne Jr.: Through four weeks last season, Etienne had 34 carries and 11 targets. This season? How do 69 carries and 16 targets sound? The Jaguars have embraced him as their featured back, which should continue against a Bills defense allowing 6.3 yards per carry.
The Jags opened their London trip with two Etienne runs and an Etienne completion. Their faith in him has inspired me to trust him more than I ever have: he’s my RB5 in Week 5.
Tank Bigsby: The rookie has scored in two of three games in which he has been active, but his only actionable appeal for fantasy managers is as Etienne insurance. Standalone value isn’t going to happen, though he would elevate to immediate top-20 status should Etienne suffer an injury.
James Cook: I’m reading less into a nearly even Week 4 snap count between him, Latavius Murray, and Damien Harris and instead more into Buffalo’s play calling for their first trip inside the Dolphins’ 10-yard line:
- James Cook up the middle for five yards
- James Cook up the middle for four yards
- James Cook up the middle for a one-yard touchdown
Is this the start of a truly elite role? We saw his burst in the two games prior (32 carries for 221 yards) and wondered if his year two upside would be capped by a lack of scoring opportunities. It was only one game, but it’s encouraging enough for him to be named a RB1 in my rankings for this week.
Damien Harris: If Cook’s role is indeed extended inside the 10-yard line, Harris will be unrosterable in all formats. Even if Cook were to get hurt, this would likely turn into a committee with Murray where they would split an underwhelming workload. It’s time to move on.
Wide Receivers
Calvin Ridley: I remain optimistic about Ridley for the remainder of the season, and he has a chance to right the ship against a Bills secondary suddenly in flux with the loss of White for the season.
I mentioned the growth of Lawrence, and with that comes less risk-taking. That will result in some low Ridley target games when the defense allocates an elite corner his way (A.J. Terrell last week), but I think it’s a long-term gain for the Jags’ top receiver.
Prior to the shadow situation last week, Ridley was averaging 8.7 targets per game — I will happily trust that role for an alpha receiver who I expect to improve as the season goes on, given his absence in 2022. Ridley is a top-15 play for me at the position this week, with a clear path to elite production in a positive-scoring environment.
Christian Kirk: Ever since the Week 1 dud that set the fantasy world into panic, Kirk is seeing 10.7 targets per game, with a catch gaining over 25 yards in all three of those contests. Of course, it’s worth noting that Zay Jones has been banged up, but Kirk’s involvement early in Week 3 (prior to the Jones injury) indicates that this isn’t a fluke.
He is the primary slot option in an offense that is looking to take fewer risks – that’ll work! He earned 40% of the targets last week against the Falcons, and until teams give him the respect that he deserves, Kirk will continue to post strong target rates.
He’s a solid WR2 for me this week, still ranking behind Ridley, as I don’t believe the Bills will use the “let the non-Ridley receivers beat us” plan that the Falcons used last week.
Zay Jones: A knee injury has now cost Jones consecutive games. His status will be one to track as the Jaguars again play in London with an early kickoff time. Jones isn’t a must-play when healthy, so the idea that he might not be at full strength, even if active, has me looking elsewhere.
There is no shortage of receivers on bye this week (Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, Keenan Allen, Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Chris Godwin, and Mike Evans), and that could create your first true lineup crunch of the season. If you’re in that spot, track Jones’ status, as this is a game with potential offensive fireworks, and the Jaguars deploy plenty of three-receiver sets.
Stefon Diggs: The Jaguars have allowed a pass catcher to rack up at least 95 receiving yards in three of four games this season, and there is simply no denying who is most likely to extend those struggles when looking at this Bills offense.
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Diggs has 13 more catches than any of his teammates have targets this season. I don’t see any reason why his near 30% target share will regress any time soon. This is going to be a fun one in London!
Gabe Davis: Three straight games with a TD matches the longest streak of Davis’ career, per the Week 5 Cheat Sheet. Fantasy managers love to see it. As good as the production has been, however, the red flags are tough to ignore.
Bills take Stefon Diggs out for the play and then run a Zone+Bubble look they like to use with Deonte Harty.
Everything about this screams zone+bubble. CB jumps the Bubble and out pops Gabe Davis on the fake block & wheel. pic.twitter.com/D3Vz9fRDVd
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 1, 2023
Davis has seen more than four targets just once this season, and if the “new Josh Allen” that I detailed above is here to stay, a player like Davis won’t gain consistency any time soon. I like him as a top-25 receiver in this matchup (WR4 in this game), but I do fear that the time to cash in the Davis chip is near.
Tight Ends
Evan Engram: The fact that Engram has not scored or cleared 70 receiving yards in a game this season would be a problem if Engram was labeled as a receiver. He’s not. Engram is a tight end, and at that position, five or more catches in every game with an 86.2% catch rate puts you in the “must start” tier.
The touchdowns will come with time, and as long as the volume remains, Engram could be a top-five performer at the position the rest of the way.
Dalton Kincaid: The rookie out-snapped Dawson Knox 30-29 last week, which doesn’t move the needle for me. But the fact that he ran a route on nearly 77% of his snaps (less than 50% for Knox) and out-targeted Knox 5:1 is certainly noteworthy.
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I have no problem starting Kincaid this week, and I count on doing so moving forward. He’s my TE11, smack dab in the middle of the TE9-TE14 tier.
Dawson Knox: Knox caught his only target for 12 yards against the Dolphins and has yet to clear 25 receiving yards in a game this season. The Bills are going with plenty of two-tight end sets, but snaps don’t earn you fantasy points. Knox is not someone to worry about right now, even with bye weeks upon us.
Should You Start Trevor Lawrence or Jordan Love?
This is far closer than I would have ever guessed after just a month of action, but I’m staying loyal to Lawrence in this spot. In what is expected to be a higher-scoring game, Lawrence is tasked with trying to keep up with Josh Allen while facing a defense that just lost its best corner in Tre’Davious White.
For me, it feels as if the Love fantasy honeymoon is on a bit of borrowed time, with rushing scores saving him in consecutive weeks. I’m not worried about his matchup at all, but the signs of personal regression are enough for me to target the ceiling that I still believe is obtainable for Lawrence.
Should You Start Gabe Davis or Zay Flowers?
I give both starting grades this week, but Flowers’ floor has him ranked just a touch higher. Davis only has one game with more than four targets this season, while Flowers is featured in a matchup that should play to his skill set: quick hitters.
Pittsburgh is among the best pressure defenses in the NFL, giving Todd Monken just one more excuse to design creative ways to get his best playmaker in space.