Trevor Lawrence is the truth. Ben Baldwin calculated adjusted EPA (expected points added) by adjusting for dropped catches, interceptions, fumble recoveries, strength of schedule, and a plethora of other things. After doing so, Lawrence ranked sixth in the league getting a +0.16 EPA boost to his actual per play average.
It just goes to show you that Lawrence played a lot better than the numbers showed last season. This season, the Jacksonville Jaguars added some valuable pieces in hopes of keeping up with the young talent in the AFC South.
Jacksonville Jaguars Futures Odds
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless noted otherwise.
- Super Bowl Odds: +5000
- AFC Odds: +2500
- AFC South Odds: +250
- Win Total: 8.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
- To Make/Miss the Playoffs: +130/-155
Jaguars Offense
The Jaguars’ offense ranked 23rd overall in EPA (17th in passing, 31st in rushing). Christian Kirk and Calvin Ridley ranked 35th and 37th, respectively, out of 119 pass catchers in EPA per route. Ridley ranked 49th in yards per route run. While those are decent-ish numbers, Ridley was expected to be a bona fide No. 1 for Lawrence last season and take their offense to new heights.
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Per TruMedia, Ridley dropped seven passes. As a team, the Jaguars ranked first in EPA lost due to drops. Luckily, drops are typically random from year to year. They also replaced the loss of Ridley with Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr., both of whom are dangerous deep threats. This bodes well for the Jags as Lawrence ranks fifth among quarterbacks in deep passing grade, per PFF.
However, all of this isn’t even mentioning the disaster of the second-worst rushing offense in football. Travis Etienne Jr. was 37th of 49 running backs in rushing yards over expected per attempt.
Jaguars Defense
The Jaguars managed an 11th overall finish in defensive EPA, pressuring the quarterback 14.41 times per game, which ranked 13th. This seemed to be a result of their blitzing, ranking ninth in pressures when they blitzed and 17th when they didn’t. Per Pro Football Reference, the Jaguars blitzed at the ninth-highest rate in the league (30% of the time).
This, when paired with a solid secondary, helped the Jaguars’ defense rank seventh in passing defensive EPA. Adding Darnell Savage and Arik Armstead should help keep this defense in a good spot going into next season. Hopefully, they can start to see a return on investment from former first-overall pick Travon Walker as well, who has been quite disappointing thus far in his career.
One Betting Trend To Know
The Jaguars were tied for 13th in the league in covering the spread at 52.9%.
Best Bet for Jaguars in 2024
I think the Jaguars’ defensive weaknesses are not as bad as people like to claim and the offense still has all the talent to succeed. I like the Jaguars at over 8.5 wins (-110), and if you are feeling frisky, bet the Jaguars to make the playoffs (+130). I also like the Houston Texans-Indianapolis Colts-Jaguars-Tennessee Titans exact AFC South finish for +650.
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Kyle Soppe’s Jaguars Best Bet
Pick: Brian Thomas Jr. to catch over 4.5 TD receptions (-120 at DraftKings)
This looks like a round-peg-into-a-round-hole fit with Ridley out of town and Lawrence increasingly interested in stretching the field.
Lawrence’s percentage of passing fantasy points on deep passes by season:
- 2021: 24.2%
- 2022: 27.5%
- 2023: 39.2% (fourth most among qualifiers)
Thomas scored on 18.9% of his collegiate receptions and averaged 17.3 yards per catch in 2023. Kirk (aDOT down 19.8% in his two seasons with the Jags from his final two seasons with the Cardinals) and Evan Engram are more used in the short-passing games and thus not a threat to my angle that Thomas is going to thrive down the field from the jump.
Davis is a bit of a skill clone, but with NFL experience, defenses are more likely to shift his direction until BTJ proves himself worthy of the attention. Jacksonville ranked fifth in pass rate over expectation and has a QB it views as its franchise guy — volume isn’t a concern for me, and Thomas’ profile is that of an instant impact receiver.