J.K. Dobbins and D’Andre Swift are both being selected as mid-range RB2s, going off the board as the RB15 and RB19, respectively, according to Fleaflicker’s ADP. In this showdown, let’s discuss the case for both running backs in fantasy football.
Update 8/29/21: During the first drive of the Ravens’ last game of the preseason, Dobbins was tackled after catching a screen pass from Lamar Jackson. He injured his left knee and needed to be carted off. A report from Adam Schefter on Sunday confirmed that Dobbins suffered a season-ending ACL tear.
The case for J.K. Dobbins over D’Andre Swift
Dobbins is tethered to one of the NFL’s most productive running games. The Ravens ranked first with 34.6 rushing attempts and 192 rushing yards per game in 2020. However, Baltimore did not have an RB finish within the top 20 in PPR formats. This was partly due to the presence of quarterback Lamar Jackson.
Lamar Jackson threatens Dobbins’ workload
Jackson averaged an astounding 10.6 rushing attempts, 67 rushing yards, and 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game. In 2020, Jackson led the team in rushing attempts, and his ability as a runner will always negatively affect RBs on the roster.
Dobbins, meanwhile, only played 47% of the Ravens’ offensive snaps as a rookie. He averaged 10.5 opportunities (rushing attempts plus targets) and 61.7 total yards per game. Dobbins did finish as an RB2+ in 53% of his active games, however, averaging 11.2 PPR fantasy points per game.
The Ravens have 85 available rushing attempts due to the departure of Mark Ingram. On the surface, this appears to be a good thing for Dobbins. But it’s wise not to underestimate his committee-mate, Gus Edwards.
Edwards has rushed for 700+ yards in each of his first three NFL seasons. He also was provided 10 more rushing attempts than Dobbins in 2020. Additionally, it remains to be seen if Dobbins will be used more as a receiver out of the backfield.
Will the Ravens provide J.K. Dobbins more targets in 2021?
Dobbins was only targeted 24 times last year. Yet, he caught 18 of them for 120 yards and is very capable out of the backfield. The Ravens’ offseason additions indirectly imply that they want to pass more in 2021. It is worth noting that Baltimore finished second-to-last in the NFL last season with only 62 RB targets.
Baltimore’s offensive situation is not optimal for RB1-type production for Dobbins. He is a solid RB2, but the other factors I mentioned above lower his ceiling. Thus, Dobbins projects for around 250 opportunities, 1,200 total yards, and 10 touchdowns in 2021.
Why you should draft D’Andre Swift in 2021 fantasy football leagues
Swift had a splendid rookie campaign, starting in four of 13 games. Swift had six games with 15 or more opportunities and averaged 19.5 PPR fantasy points in those games. The only other running backs who had higher fantasy points per opportunity last season than Swift (1.11) were Alvin Kamara (1.29), James White (1.2), and Nyheim Hines (1.16).
The perception among fantasy managers was that the Lions would deploy Swift as a workhorse this season. That dream was ultimately shattered, however, when Detroit signed running back Jamaal Williams during free agency.
Williams prospered in a complementary role during his time with the Packers. He is actually the first player in Packers’ history to rattle off 450+ rushing yards and 200+ receiving yards in each of his first four seasons.
Anthony Lynn loves providing running backs opportunities
It would be wise for the Lions to lean heavily on its excellent offensive line and the running backs with quarterback Jared Goff under center. New offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn schemed 26% of passes and 41% of touches to running backs during his four years with the Los Angeles Chargers. Yet, the recent news surrounding Swift has many questioning his durability.
Swift has missed a great deal of time over this month due to a groin injury. Lions head coach Dan Campbell publicly questioned whether the second-year running back will be in game shape come Week 1. He also envisions Swift and Williams operating as a one-two punch.
The Lions and Swift could find themselves playing from behind quite a bit this season. Regardless, he projects for around 270 opportunities, 1,300 total yards, and 8 touchdowns this season.