As we close in toward a new season, the ever-changing NFL landscape has player fantasy football values constantly on the move, and nothing shakes up the league like the recently finished NFL Draft, where young rookies begin their NFL careers.
Whether you’re used to the dynasty platform or are still learning the dynasty rules, let’s dive into the latest dynasty fantasy football value of new New York Jets RB Israel Abanikanda.
Israel Abanikanda’s Dynasty Outlook and Value
I take no pride or joy in writing this article. All it does is remind me of what could have been. Israel Abanikanda was my guy at running back in this class. If you read my pre-draft content, you likely saw his name pop up quite a bit.
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Abanikanda would have blown up the NFL Combine if he had tested. He’s also flat-out talented. Just look at what he did this year: 14th in yards with 1,426 on 241 carries (5.9 YPC) and 20 touchdowns that tied him with Mohamed Ibrahim for the NCAA lead. Abanikanda averaged 2.46 yards after contact (with 46 missed tackles) and had 38 carries of 10 yards or more.
But that doesn’t do it justice, as the film speaks more than I ever could. Not only does Abanikanda have 4.3 speed, but outside of Devon Achane, I’m not sure any running back gets up to top speed quicker than Abanikanda. He just obliterates angles.
Abanikanda’s Landing Spot Was Brutal for His Dynasty Upside
But do you also know something? Abanikanda likely will never be able to show off his skills as he was drafted by the New York Jets with the No. 143 overall pick in the fifth round. I would be singing such a different song if he had gone to Minnesota one spot before, but nope, Izzy gets buried behind Breece Hall. Why can’t I have nice things?
Hall has the talent to be one of the best running backs in the NFL and is currently my RB2 overall in dynasty. While his rookie season did end early due to a torn ACL in Week 7, Hall was already showing his upside.
After recording 21 carries in the first three games, he was let loose in Weeks 4 through 6, averaging 18.3 rushing attempts, 93 rushing yards, one TD, two receptions, 3.3 targets, and 39 receiving yards per game. He was the RB5 in PPR over this stretch and seventh in points per game at 21.2. That said, only Austin Ekeler and Christian McCaffrey finished the season averaging 20+ PPR/game.
Hall could have won the OROY, but it instead went to fellow teammate Garrett Wilson as he and Sauce Gardner won both the Offensive and Defensive ROY awards. With Hall already ahead of schedule in his recovery, the Jets will not take opportunities away from one of the most talented RBs in the NFL, who they took at pick No. 36 in the previous draft, and give them to Abanikanda.
Abanikanda is there for “just in case” depth they hope they don’t have to use. Without Hall, the Jets never go three straight games of 100 or more yards as a team. They ended the season producing no more than 76 yards during their late-season losing skid (Weeks 14-18). The Jets went on to finish 27th overall in total rushing yards and 21st in rushing TDs.
MORE: 2023 Dynasty Rookie RB Rankings
Now with Aaron Rodgers under center, the Jets are in Super Bowl-or-bust mode. The last thing they can afford is to become one-dimensional. The addition of Abanikanda alongside Michael Carter is an insurance policy they hope not to use.
If anything, Abanikanda won’t compete with Carter but Zonovan “Bam” Knight, a UDFA from NC State who averaged 15.3 rushes, 3.3 targets, 99.4 yards, and 15.3 PPR as the RB10 between Weeks 12-14.
Abanikanda has gone from someone I was higher than the consensus on to someone I likely will not touch in dynasty. Day 3 running backs are one of the most replaceable spots on a depth chart. Just ask Tyler Allgeier. Abanikanda will be no exception, unfortunately.
Israel Abanikanda’s Fantasy Ranking
Last season, the Jets were -2.1% below their passing rate over expectation on first down, opting to lean on the ground to move the ball rather than risking it due to their shakey — at best — QB play with Zach Wilson, Mike White, Joe Flacco, and Chris Streveler all receiving starts. Overall, they were 29th in EPA, 30th in points per drive, 23rd in play pace, and 11th in passing percentage.
That will all change with Rodgers, who is back with Nathaniel Hackett. You don’t make a franchise-defining trade for a first-ballot Hall of Famer to run the ball into oblivion. Between 2019 and 2021, when Hackett and Rodgers were in Green Bay, they finished fifth (+2.6%), fifth (+3.7%), and eighth (+2.7%) in PROE while rushing on just 33.8% of their plays.
That will inevitably lead to fewer and fewer opportunities for the running backs. Even though I do expect the Jets to ease Hall back into the flow and evaluate how his knee responds, we are still looking at a minimum of a three-way committee with Hall, Carter, and Izzy — if we even leave out Knight.
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Hall was averaging 69% of the RB rush attempts and 63% of the RB targets from Weeks 4-6 before his ACL injury. You can’t split up the remaining 30-35% two/three ways and come out with a way Carter, Abanikanda, and Knight show any level of fantasy relevance, especially when Hall is the preferred goal-line back.
Abanikanda’s best shot at seeing the field is if the Jets slowly work Hall back, but even then, Carter is a more technically sound rusher and has been in the NFL for multiple years already. Plus, Abanikanda doesn’t bring receiving upside.
I have Abanikanda in the RB60-65 range for dynasty at the moment. He is a replaceable RB5/6 who, despite being one of my favorite RBs in this class, likely will never see a role significant enough to warrant starting roster consideration. As I said, this would be a completely different conversation if he went to Minnesota, where Dalvin Cook could be out the door, and Abanikanda could be in the next-man-up competition.
But in New York, that’s not going to happen. If you draft him, be ready to sell him high the minute you get the opportunity to do so, as that’s the best outcome you can hope for at this point. Abanikanda joins the list of “what if” names for me that is beginning to look like a CVS receipt in length. If you’ll excuse me, I need a stiff drink now.