Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco is a seventh-round rookie who is poised to steal Ronald Jones’ roster spot. Pacheco looks to climb the Chiefs’ running back depth chart and carve out a role. What can fantasy football managers expect from Pacheco in the 2022 season, and is he a good value at his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Isiah Pacheco’s fantasy outlook for 2022
Pacheco wasn’t just a seventh-round pick; he was one of the last selections in the 2022 NFL Draft. It’s extremely rare for Day 3 players to matter in fantasy, let alone one that went as late as Pacheco. And I’m usually the first guy to proclaim, “your Day 3 rookie darling doesn’t matter.” Well, not with Pacheco.
Pacheco was a four-year college player at Rutgers who never rushed for more than 729 yards in a season. His career yards per carry in college was a paltry 4.3. So, what exactly is appealing about him?
For starters, the kid runs a 4.37 40-time at 5’10”, 216 pounds. He’s got good size and incredible straight-line speed. Most Pacheco fans, myself included, place a large portion of the blame for Pacheco’s inefficiency on Rutgers’ poor offensive line. He just didn’t have anywhere to go.
Last season, Chiefs running backs averaged about 2.1 yards before contact. Their offensive line is significantly better than anything Pacheco saw in college. Pacheco is talented enough to produce if given the opportunity. He just needs that opportunity.
How the Chiefs’ depth chart impacts Isiah Pacheco’s fantasy projection for the season
Pacheco opened training camp fourth on the depth chart. Evidently, his performance warranted a change. He’s gotten work in with the first team and played with Patrick Mahomes in the preseason. This backfield has essentially been a three-man split between Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jerick McKinnon, and Isiah Pacheco.
That’s the order I expect these backs to open the season on the depth chart. Ronald Jones is a cut candidate. By the time you read this, he may already be gone. Even if he isn’t, Pacheco is clearly ahead of him on the depth chart.
Pacheco is the RB3, but this is not a difficult roster to climb. Edwards-Helaire is one of the weakest starting running backs in the league, and McKinnon is a 30-year-old, oft-injured satellite back.
We’ve already seen CEH lose work to a superior Darrel Williams. And Williams isn’t any sort of special talent. Pacheco should be better than Williams, and Andy Reid has shown he will not hesitate to put his best players on the field. CEH’s first-round draft capital will not save him in his third professional season.
Pacheco’s ADP for 2022
Pacheco’ ADP is up to about RB55. While his overall ADP remains outside the top 200, he’s almost certainly going to be drafted in a standard-sized 12-team league.
I get the upside with Pacheco. I want him to succeed. But this is a little expensive for a guy that’s still third on the depth chart and likely in a version of a three-man committee all season.
For years, we’ve drafted Chiefs running backs on the basis that playing alongside Patrick Mahomes will automatically give them 2017 Kareem Hunt upside. That just hasn’t been the case. Situation matters. But so do talent and opportunity. It’s unlikely any of these three backs have an elite opportunity share.
Pacheco is our consensus RB60. I’m actually a little higher on him at RB54. Simply put, I will take him if I need an RB5, and he’s the highest guy on my board. My fear for those of you targeting Pacheco is he’s become this training camp darling and is a name with a lot of buzz surrounding him. He may cost more than he should.
It is good process to take a shot on guys like Pacheco in ambiguous backfields. I just want to caution against reaching to do so. If Pacheco comes to you at the right price, go right ahead and select him in fantasy drafts. Just don’t go out of your way to do it.