While the draft and waiver impact a fantasy football team, nothing else matters if you make the wrong lineup decisions. As managers make the final tweaks to their lineups for Week 2, should you start Kansas City Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco in your fantasy lineup when they take on the Los Angeles Chargers on Thursday Night Football?
Chiefs rookie RB Isiah Pacheco made an impact in Week 1
You never know what to expect in Week 1. That goes double for a rookie. When it’s a seventh-round draft pick (No. 251), the fact they’re on the 53-man roster is already beating the odds. But not every rookie is like Isiah Pacheco.
A standout at Rutgers, Pacheco turned heads at the NFL Combine in Indianapolis with a mix of power (5’10” and 216 pounds), speed (4.37 40-yard), and explosiveness (33-inch vertical and 118-inch broad jump); the measurables were there.
It’s what allowed Pacheco to stand out in camp and made many wonder if he could disrupt the Chiefs’ depth chart after another up and down season from former first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
Pacheco found himself in the action in Week 1, rushing a team-high 12 times for 62 yards while scoring the team’s only rushing touchdown in their trouncing of the Arizona Cardinals 44-21.
In his first game in the NFL, Pacheco cashed in for fantasy managers bold and/or desperate enough to start him, posting an RB22 finish with 12.2 PPR points. Managers who didn’t know about him took notice, too, as Pacheco jumped to over 17% in rostership percentage to 18.4% after being sub-1% before kickoff.
On the other hand, once you dig into the numbers, things are not quite what they appear for Pacheco and his “breakout” game.
Pacheco’s fantasy value came via game script, not by design
Like most things in life, nothing is as simple as it appears at first glance. Stats are the same thing. A box score might lead you to interpret it one way when the reality is entirely different. In the end, you make a decision with bad information, which is almost more dangerous than holding steady.
That’s my concern for those jumping on the Pacheco train. To be perfectly clear, I do like Pacheco, and I do believe he has the talent to take on a prominent role in this offense, and at some point, that will happen. But those feeling that this happened in Week 1 might be sorely mistaken.
Pacheco’s involvement came only because of the demolishing of the Cardinals. At one point, Kansas City was up 37-7. That’s a college score, not the NFL. Pacheco played on just four of the 56 snaps that came in the first three quarters. By the fourth quarter, the Chiefs were up so far that they pulled Edwards-Helaire, leading to Pacheco being in the game to run the clock out and accumulate yards.
His 12 carries were not by pre-game design but because they had a 30-point lead. Pacheco totaled just 16 snaps in total, which put his touch/snap rate at an absurd 75%. That is not sustainable. Week 1 was positive but also misleading without context.
Should you start Isiah Pacheco against the Los Angeles Chargers in your fantasy football lineup on Thursday Night Football?
With rosters set to lock for Thursday Night Football in a few hours, Pacheco might be in consideration by some after his opening performance. However, I would advise against this as the floor for Pacheco is dangerously low.
He is, at best, the RB2 but really is the RB3 behind both Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon, who both had 27 snaps and saw 15+ routes can to Pacheco’s four. This is not a game where the Chiefs are going to roll over their opponent. If anything, this could be a division-deciding matchup as both look to take the AFC West crown.
The Chargers were vulnerable against running backs last season, ranking 26th in points per game (26.2 PPR) and allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns to the position (19). That’s not entirely the case this year.
One of the most well-rounded rosters in the NFL, especially after adding both CB J.C. Jackson and EDGE Khalil Mack, the Chargers rank 8th in EPA/play. Last week, held Josh Jacobs and Brandon Bolden to a combined 74 yards on 13 carries with no touchdowns.
This is a game that will be won in the air, not on the ground. I wouldn’t completely write off a sneaky score but betting on those is a dangerous game to play.
Coming into Thursday Night, Pacheco is the RB62 in PFN’s fantasy football rankings, leaving him well outside the range of startable players in the majority of fantasy formats. When you have someone like Patrick Mahomes, you tend to use him, which is what I expect the Chiefs to do as he goes toe-to-toe with Justin Herbert.
The rushing game could be neglected as a result. I have no qualms with adding Pacheco if you have a deep enough league, but he should not be started in fantasy football right now.