Kansas City Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco firmly established himself as an NFL lead back last season. Concerns about his draft capital making his job security shaky should no longer exist. As the RB1 on one of the league’s best offenses, should fantasy football managers target Pacheco?
Isiah Pacheco’s Fantasy Forecast
It takes a few years before we can actually feel confident in a Day 3/UDFA running back to have job security. Justified or not, NFL teams don’t feel as pot committed to Day 3 running backs, thus leaving them more susceptible to losing their jobs. But after two seasons, I feel confident in saying we no longer have to worry about this with Pacheco.
In his second NFL season, Pacheco averaged 15.3 fantasy points per game, finishing as the RB14 overall. He started the season in a timeshare, hovering around a 55% snap share. But by the end of the season, notably with Jerick McKinnon out, Pacheco’s snap share pushed more toward 70%.
The good news for 2024 is McKinnon is no longer on the team. It’s now just Pacheco with Clyde Edwards-Helaire behind him.
While CEH has the first-round draft capital, if the Chiefs believed him to be better than Pacheco, they wouldn’t have made Pacheco the starter and clear lead back ahead of him. CEH is just insurance/change of pace.
Last season, Pacheco had the 11th-highest percentage of carries to go for 15+ yards. He created 3.59 yards per touch (18th in the league), but that’s all secondary to his big step forward in the passing game.
Pacheco’s target share may have only been 9.9% (26th in the NFL), but that’s enough, especially considering he saw just a 2.3% target share as a rookie.
Fantasy managers don’t need Pacheco to be like former running backs Matt Forte or Steven Jackson. He just needs to be a back who catches a couple of passes each game. With McKinnon no longer in the picture, I believe this is sustainable.
The main concern with Pacheco should be injury. If you’ve been following me long enough, you know I believe we cannot predict injury…most of the time. Injuries are random, but certain players have a play style more conducive to getting hurt than others. The poster child for this is Deebo Samuel. Not far behind him is Pacheco.
Pacheco’s violent running style is fun to watch but not great for his long-term health. Last season, he sprained his shoulder and suffered a concussion. There were also a couple of other games he exited for a bit before returning.
By no means would I classify Pacheco as injury-prone. It’s just something fantasy managers should be aware of.
Pacheco’s RB10 ADP is a bit high at his position. After all, he’s never finished above RB14. At the same time, he’s also never entered a season with zero questions about his role or workload.
The 2024 Chiefs offense has improved greatly over the past two seasons. A better offense should result in more points, which means more scoring opportunities for Pacheco.
Wide receivers may rule the land now, but that doesn’t mean we should pay premiums to draft WR2s and WR3s at inflated prices. It means we should let other managers do that while we scoop up the RB value.
Pacheco is my RB11, right in line with consensus. However, there are several wide receivers I would take him over that the market disagrees with. As a result, Pacheco is someone I am definitely targeting in 2024 fantasy drafts.