Coming out of the Kansas City Chiefs bye week, is Isiah Pacheco a player that fantasy football managers should be looking to add and start this week? After Pacheco started the Chiefs’ last game, the excitement for his ceiling is enticing, but are we at a point where fantasy managers can actually take action on that?
Let’s take a look at what we’ve seen from Pacheco so far in his rookie year, the situation in the Chiefs’ backfield, and whether this week’s matchup with Tennessee offers upside.
Is Isiah Pacheco a Fantasy Asset That Managers Should Invest in This Week?
The Chiefs’ Week 7 game against the San Francisco 49ers saw Pacheco start the game and see a season-high in snaps at 30%. He finished with 43 rushing yards on eight carries, leading the backfield in attempts and rushing yards. However, things were not that clear-cut.
While Pacheco had the first carry of the game for the Chiefs, Clyde Edwards-Helaire was back in for the second drive. The Chiefs then cycled back to Pacheco for the third drive. Edwards-Helaire handled the work in the third quarter, but it was Pacheco that took the first touch in the fourth-quarter drives.
Despite Pacheco’s designation as the starter, this was very much still a timeshare. Edwards-Helaire had a 27% snap share and seven opportunities. To add to the confusion, Jerick McKinnon played the most snaps at the position (44%) and also had two rushing attempts and three targets. The full breakdown of RB usage was Pacheco with eight opportunities, CEH with seven, and McKinnon with five.
Week 7 saw Edwards-Helaire’s lowest snap share of the season. That was the first time he had been below a 40% snap share since Week 1. Meanwhile, McKinnon’s snap share stayed relatively flat, having been between 40 and 55% in five of the seven games this season.
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The 30% snap share for Pacheco is significant because, unlike the other weeks, he saw over a 20% snap share, the majority of the workload did not come in garbage time. Now, coming off the bye week, the Chiefs have had more opportunity to get Pacheco further initiated in the offense. While he may not initially push into the 40-50% snap share, there’s a good chance we see the 30% snap share remain reasonably static.
What we have seen this year is that Pacheco has been better at hitting the holes than CEH. He averages 2.5 yards before contact per rushing attempt, compared to 2.1 yards for Edwards-Helaire. Both have been similar after contact, averaging 2.5 yards per rush attempt.
However, with only eight offensive touches coming with that snap share in Week 7, it’s difficult to know if fantasy managers should rely on Pacheco getting enough work to provide significant fantasy value. Let’s examine the matchup and whether fantasy managers should invest this week.
What Does Week 9 and Beyond Hold for Pacheco’s Fantasy Value?
Heading into the back end of Week 9, Pacheco is only rostered in 25.1% of ESPN leagues. Therefore, there is plenty of scope to look to add him this week. In contrast, Edwards-Helaire is rostered in 91.4% of leagues.
The problem is knowing when to use Pacheco. As the previous starter, CEH relied on touchdowns and receiving work to provide significant fantasy value. Pacheco has just two targets all season, and the Chiefs have very much shared rushing work inside the red zone. Pacheco has six red-zone rushing attempts, while Edwards-Helaire and McKinnon have eight rushing attempts.
The other issue for this week is that the Chiefs have a tough matchup for their RBs. The Titans have allowed the second-lowest average fantasy points to the position this year at 15.5. All season, Tennessee has been really good against running backs. They gave up 32.8 fantasy points in Week 1 but have only given up more than 15 fantasy points twice since then, and not over 20.
There is certainly the potential for a running back to have a good day against the Titans. A 10 to 20 fantasy-point return is not a disaster, but the way the Chiefs split touches, that will likely be shared between at least two, if not three, backs. That makes it hard to trust any of them as a starting option this week or try to fit any of them into your daily fantasy lineups over at Underdog Fantasy.
However, thinking more long term, things look brighter in the next couple of weeks. The Chiefs’ games in Weeks 10 and 11 come against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Los Angeles Chargers. Those two defenses are among the top six in most fantasy points given up to RBs. The Chargers allow 26.44 fantasy points per game to the position, with the Jaguars at 22.88.
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There is then a pair of tougher matchups against the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals. However, in the final stretch of the fantasy season, the Chiefs face the Denver Broncos twice, as well as the Houston Texans and Seattle Seahawks.
The Broncos have given up 23 or more fantasy points in the last three games, while the Texans allow an average of 31.46 fantasy points to the position, with the Seahawks at 22.34. Therefore, over the next nine weeks that constitute the remainder of the standard fantasy season, the Chiefs have RB-friendly matchups in six of those.
All of this means that while fantasy managers might not utilize Pacheco this week, he’s an intriguing player to look to add this week. If he continues to play at least 30% of the offensive snaps, and potentially more, then there’s a chance for him to be a weekly starting option for fantasy managers.
With that said, waiting until waivers run next week might be too late. Even if he struggles in the matchup, if Pacheco sees more playing time than Edwards-Helaire, he should be an intriguing name on the Week 10 waiver wire.
The biggest concern is that we need to see Pacheco get the increase in red-zone touches and the receiving-game work. However, if you wait for that to happen before investing, then the price will rise considerably.
At this point, you are really looking to add Pacheco in the hope he develops into the main back for the Chiefs. It’s unlikely he ever sees a high enough workload to be a slam-dunk RB1 option, but if Pacheco continues to take work from CEH, he has the chance to at least be a weekly 12-team Flex consideration down the stretch.