The Kansas City Chiefs will face the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Conference Championship Game. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding RB Isiah Pacheco.
Is Isiah Pacheco Playing vs. the Bills?
Pacheco was not listed on the injury report this week. Barring any last-minute setbacks, he will play vs. Buffalo.
We’ll continue to monitor the Chiefs’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Isiah Pacheco in the AFC Conference Championship Game?
I’m not mad, I’m just disappointed.
I was promoting Isiah Pacheco last week and felt reasonably good about it. At least, as good as you can feel about a running back who missed considerable time and had yet to be reintroduced to his bell-cow role.
- Kansas City rested its starters in Week 18 and had Wild Card Weekend off
- Kansas City ran for 124 yards and two TDs vs. HOU in Week 16
- Kansas City was a 9.5-point favorite
I stand by the logic of expecting a rested Pacheco to thrive, but it didn’t happen. Not even close. In the first seven minutes last week, he had three carries and a target — in the next 53 minutes, he had two carries.
Kareem Hunt ran hard against Houston (8-44-1) and the Chiefs even elected to give Xavier Worthy a carry in close instead of trying to save my call and get a Pacheco plunge. Those aren’t great signs, but those are also red flags that the DFS pricing folks have picked up on, thus resulting in Pacheco checking in below two Commanders RBs this weekend. Those are two backs, in a system with an elite dual-threat quarterback, in a game in which they are 5.5-point underdogs – not pretty.
Building rosters this weekend isn’t going to be comfortable. It can’t be. You’re trying to balance statistical projections with ownership expectations and contest payout structure — there are a lot of moving pieces, so you’re going to have to choose your spots.
I’m willing to go there at this cost. I’m hopeful that Pacheco can get 15-ish touches and get a chance to score. But more critically, I like what rosters I can build by deploying him and James Cook in this game, especially when you consider that ownership on these pass games, in my opinion, is more likely to be the popular structure.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Conference Championship Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Isiah Pacheco’s Fantasy Points Projection in the AFC Conference Championship Game
As of Sunday morning, Pacheco is projected to score 12.7 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 13.3 rushing attempts for 58.7 yards and 0.4 touchdowns. It also includes 2.4 receptions for 16.7 yards and 0 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Bills' Defense
After finishing as a top-seven defense in each of the last three seasons, the Bills finished 18th during the regular season. That's not the biggest surprise given that this was largely billed as a rebuilding season for this unit.
Buffalo was a boom-or-bust defense in the Divisional Round vs. Baltimore, and there were just enough highs to escape with the win. In addition to the three takeaways, the Bills also generated their second-highest non-blitz pressure rate (42.9%) this season. The only higher rate was in the Wild Card win over the Broncos (50%).
This wasn't a particularly efficient defensive performance, as reflected in the final Defense+ grade of 69.9 (D+). Despite some run stuffs, the Bills had their worst rushing defense success rate all season (44%) and were fortunate the game script didn't allow the Ravens to lean more heavily on their run game.
Still, the Bills' offense is operating at such a high level that the bar to clear for the defense is lower than it would be on nearly any other team. Buffalo met that threshold with a few big plays against the Ravens. Those could be tougher to generate against a Chiefs offense that has gone eight straight games without a turnover, but it may be all the Bills need to finally conquer Kansas City.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Isiah Pacheco’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 11:45 PM ET on Saturday, January 25.
Conference Championship RB PPR Rankings
1) Saquon Barkley | PHI (vs. WAS)
2) James Cook | BUF (at KC)
3) Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS (at PHI)
4) Isiah Pacheco | KC (vs. BUF)
5) Kareem Hunt | KC (vs. BUF)
6) Austin Ekeler | WAS (at PHI)
7) Ray Davis | BUF (at KC)
8) Ty Johnson | BUF (at KC)
9) Samaje Perine | KC (vs. BUF)
10) Kenneth Gainwell | PHI (vs. WAS)
11) Jeremy McNichols | WAS (at PHI)
12) Will Shipley | PHI (vs. WAS)
13) Carson Steele | KC (vs. BUF)
14) Reggie Gilliam | BUF (at KC)
15) Chris Rodriguez Jr. | WAS (at PHI)
Bills at Chiefs Trends and Insights
Buffalo Bills
Team: The Bills lost four road games during the regular season — only four Super Bowl champions in the 2000s have done that (2018 Patriots, 2012 Ravens, 2010 Packers, and 2006 Colts).
QB: Five times has a QB had four games in a season (playoffs included) with multiple rush touchdowns and 20 pass attempts.
- 2021 Jalen Hurts
- 2022 Jalen Hurts
- 2023 Jalen Hurts
- 2023 Josh Allen
- 2024 Josh Allen
No player has had five such games in a season.
Offense: The Bills have scored on at least 55% of their possessions six times this season, four of which have come against playoff teams.
Defense: Buffalo allowed Baltimore to pick up 70% of their third downs. That’s the fourth-highest rate the Bills have allowed in the 2000s and is their highest in a winning effort.
Fantasy: Allen has completed over 72% of his passes in both playoff wins – he had three such games during the regular season.
Betting: Overs are 5-2 in Buffalo’s past seven games, cashing last week by half a point with Baltimore's final touchdown.
Kansas City Chiefs
Team: Christmas Day 2023 was the date of Kansas City’s last home loss – each of their past six Arrowhead games have been decided by a single possession.
QB: Patrick Mahomes has thrown a total of three touchdown passes in his last two Championship games (3.7% of his attempts) after throwing three in each of his first four appearances (8.4%).
Offense: Saturday was the 10th time this season in which the Chiefs scored on at least half of their possessions (five-of-nine against Houston).
Defense: Opponents have picked up at least half of their third downs in four straight games against the Chiefs (Texans: 10-of-17).
Fantasy: In the last two games in which their starters have been extended, the Chiefs have managed to turn 42 carries into just 119 yards (2.83 yards per carry).
Betting: By taking an intentional safety at the end of their win over the Texans, the Chiefs snapped their six-game playoff cover streak.
