The NFL never stops. Even when games aren’t taking place, fantasy football values are constantly on the move. Kansas City Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco took a massive step forward in his sophomore season, cementing his position as his team’s RB1. Where does his dynasty value stand heading into the 2024 offseason?
Isiah Pacheco’s Dynasty Outlook
After a strong rookie year that saw him fall a bit behind RB Jerick McKinnon late in the season, dynasty managers were justifiably not quite all-in on Pacheco heading into 2023. Now, it’s safe to say Pacheco is the guy in Kansas City.
Isiah Pacheco firmly took over the backfield in Kansas City this past year.
He now sits as a top 12 consensus dynasty RB in the PFN Fantasy Staff’s rankings 👀
(Via @nfl) pic.twitter.com/xXTXEqiMz3
— PFN Fantasy (@PFNFantasy) January 24, 2024
It’s exceedingly rare for seventh-round picks to matter in the NFL at any position. The list of successful seventh-round running backs since 2010 consists of Chris Carson and, if he can keep it going, Pacheco. As a result, fantasy managers should justifiably be reluctant to quickly buy in when one breaks out early in his career.
When it comes to Day 3/UDFA running backs, we’ve seen plenty of seemingly talented backs put up strong efforts in their first season or two, only to be cast aside and bounced out of the league a couple of years later. While I don’t think Pacheco is certain to avoid that fate, the data strongly suggests he’s here to stay.
In his second professional season, Pacheco averaged 15.3 fantasy points per game. He finished as the RB14.
Most encouraging for Pacheco’s fantasy value is how he began the season in a timeshare, playing around 55% of the snaps, but finished the season more toward a 70% snap share. It’s worth noting McKinnon was out, though. However, even when McKinnon returned for the Super Bowl, he didn’t really cut into Pacheco’s playing time.
No one will mistake Pacheco for an elite running back, but in the current era, very few are. It’s perfectly fine to just be really, really good. Last year, Pacheco was just that.
Pacheco took an impressive 5.4% of his carries for 15+ yards, 11th-best in the league. He created 3.59 yards per touch, 18th in the league. But what encourages me the most is his increased passing game role.
Pacheco’s 9.9% target share was only 26th in the league, but it’s a massive uptick from the 2.3% target share he saw as a rookie. Fantasy managers don’t need Pacheco to be like former RBs Matt Forte or Steven Jackson. If he can tack on a mere two or three receptions per game, that will do wonders for his fantasy value, as it did in 2023.
Pacheco’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does Pacheco land in the dynasty RB landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Katz’s latest rankings, featuring where Pacheco lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
Jason Katz’s Top 24 Dynasty RB Rankings
1) Breece Hall | NYJ
2) Bijan Robinson | ATL
3) Jahmyr Gibbs | DET
4) Christian McCaffrey | SF
5) Jonathan Taylor | IND
6) Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX
7) De’Von Achane | MIA
8) Saquon Barkley | NYG
9) Rachaad White | TB
10) Isiah Pacheco | KC
11) Kenneth Walker III | SEA
12) Josh Jacobs | LV
13) Kyren Williams | LAR
14) James Cook | BUF
15) D’Andre Swift | PHI
16) Javonte Williams | DEN
17) Tony Pollard | DAL
18) Tyjae Spears | TEN
19) Rhamondre Stevenson | NE
20) Joe Mixon | CIN
21) Alvin Kamara | NO
22) David Montgomery | DET
23) Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS
24) Derrick Henry | TEN
Should You Trade Pacheco in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading Pacheco? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trade offers to make in seconds!
After two seasons in the league, Pacheco is still just 24 years old. Not that we’re concerned about wear and tear this early in a player’s career, but the fact that he hasn’t taken on significant volume is good news for his longevity.
The one knock on Pacheco would be his running style. He’s a joy to watch, but his angry running style has thus far proven not to be great for his health. Last season, Pacheco sprained his shoulder and sustained a concussion. He also got nicked up in a couple of other games but was able to return.
With that said, fantasy managers shouldn’t be getting rid of Pacheco because of injury concerns — it’s just something worth noting regarding his long-term durability.
Pacheco still has two years remaining on his rookie contract. As with just about every running back nowadays, there’s no guarantee he remains with the Chiefs beyond that. However, two years of operating as Patrick Mahomes’ RB1 is good enough for me.
MORE: Dynasty Rookie Draft Strategies
Dynasty managers shouldn’t be going out of their way to trade Pacheco. Continue to reach out to the Pacheco managers in your leagues to see if perhaps one of them doesn’t fully buy in.
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