Isaiah McKenzie’s fantasy football outlook is on the rise heading into the 2022 NFL season. He has become a surprise contender for the WR3 role in Buffalo, catapulting him into fantasy relevance this season. Let’s examine McKenzie’s fantasy outlook for 2022 and see whether he is worth investing in at his current ADP in fantasy drafts.
Isaiah McKenzie’s fantasy outlook for 2022
As a five-year veteran, McKenzie was not expected to suddenly find himself in a role that would have fantasy relevance in 2022. He has never had more than 40 targets in a season and played 25% or fewer of the Bills’ snaps in the past two years. However, he appears to have the inside track on the slot receiver role, replacing Cole Beasley and beating out Jamison Crowder.
To see how McKenzie could fare in the role, we can look at Beasley’s returns over the past three years. In 2019 and 2020, Beasley finished as the WR35 and WR31, respectively, before dropping back to the WR58 last season. He has seen over 100 targets in each of the past three years, reeling in over 220 receptions.
There are two keys here. The first is efficiency. When Beasley finished inside the top 36 at the position, he averaged 7.3 and 9.0 yards per target. That fell close to a career-low of 6.2 yards per target in 2021. Additionally, Beasley had just one touchdown last season, compared to 10 across the previous two years. However, that was not due to a lack of opportunities. Beasley had 12 red-zone targets in 2021 and was one of just two players with more than 10 not to score a touchdown on those targets.
While efficiency is the first key to McKenzie’s fantasy value, volume is the other. On this Bills offense, that volume is certainly not assured with a tremendous depth chart around him.
How the Bills’ depth chart impacts McKenzie’s fantasy projection for the season
We know Stefon Diggs is the WR1, and we suspect his target share will be in the region of 25-30% once again. We also expect Gabriel Davis to be the No. 2, with his role largely being on intermediate and deep routes, replacing what Emmanuel Sanders was providing this offense. That leaves the slot role that McKenzie appears to have the inside track on.
However, Crowder still lurks on this depth chart. While McKenzie has beaten him out, Crowder will likely have a role during the season. That could limit McKenzie’s potential to get to 100 targets and leave him needing to be more efficient than Beasley to generate the same results.
Additionally, the Bills added James Cook, who is expected to be primarily a receiving option. Therefore, we could see Cook being split out as a slot receiver, either in place of McKenzie or as a fifth receiving option on the play. McKenzie may have earned the role, but there is still a lot that needs to go right for him to be able to return WR3 value in a 12-team league.
McKenzie’s ADP for 2022
McKenzie’s ADP has been rising steadily during the preseason as it has become clear he has a role in this offense. He is currently just outside the top 200 as the WR78 off the board. Our analysts are more bullish on McKenzie’s upside. He is currently ranked as the WR60 at 147th overall in PFN’s consensus 2022 PPR fantasy rankings.
That ranking reflects the balance between the upside of his role and the concern of Crowder and Cook taking targets away. Taking McKenzie as a late-round selection in 12- or 14-team leagues is relatively safe but has upside. If his role diminishes, you have not invested much and can simply move on. However, if he does take the full target share that Beasley saw, McKenzie would present a tremendous value.