Baltimore Ravens TE Isaiah Likely proved he can be an impact fantasy option when filling in for Mark Andrews. With the latter still the clear starter, how should fantasy football managers value Likely as we move into the 2024 offseason?
Isaiah Likely’s Dynasty Outlook
In fantasy, we want our players to be their team’s top guys. To the greatest extent possible, we want fantasy assets that are going to command volume. At wide receiver, teams can have multiple highly impactful fantasy players. Unfortunately, that’s not the case at tight end. I would argue Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez are the only examples of an NFL team supporting two fantasy-relevant tight ends.
As the 2024 offseason commences, who are the top dynasty TE trade targets that you can acquire now to help set your roster up for success? https://t.co/cxUz2Fp3gn
— PFN Fantasy (@PFNFantasy) February 6, 2024
Therein lies the struggle in valuing Likely. He’s definitively good at football. It’s fair to say he proved that in 2023.
Likely’s season-long stats aren’t anything to marvel at. Instead, we should isolate his performances during the games in which Andrews did not play.
Last year, Andrews missed seven regular-season games. In those games, Likely averaged 12.1 fantasy points per game. Those aren’t game-breaking numbers, but just about every fantasy manager would take that from the tight end position.
The problem is that, when Andrews plays, Likely is relegated to a pure backup role. He averaged a mere 1.6 fantasy points per game in his 10 games alongside Andrews.
Of course, Likely’s quality play likely earned him an increased role going forward. However, there’s just no way he’s going to see enough volume in a run-heavy offense competing with Andrews and Zay Flowers for targets. At best, Likely is probably a 6-8 points-per-game tight end, and even that is probably generous.
The best comparison we have in recent history is when the Philadelphia Eagles drafted Dallas Goedert. Everyone knew Goedert was good at football, but any breakout was capped by Zach Ertz’s presence. However, it’s not a 1-to-1 comparison, because Ertz was declining in ability.
Andrews will be 28 years old this year. He’s still a good 4-5 years away from any concerns about decline. He’s also signed through the 2025 season.
The Ravens are not trading Andrews. That means there are at least two more years of Likely as a glorified handcuff tight end, making him difficult for fantasy managers to figure out how to handle.
Likely’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does Likely land in the dynasty TE landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Katz’s latest rankings, featuring where Likely lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
Jason Katz’s Top 25 Dynasty TE Rankings
1) Sam LaPorta | DET
2) Trey McBride | ARI
3) Mark Andrews | BAL
4) T.J. Hockenson | MIN
5) Dalton Kincaid | BUF
6) Travis Kelce | KC
7) George Kittle | SF
8) David Njoku | CLE
9) Evan Engram | JAX
10) Jake Ferguson | DAL
11) Dallas Goedert | PHI
12) Kyle Pitts | ATL
13) Cole Kmet | CHI
14) Pat Freiermuth | PIT
15) Isaiah Likely | BAL
16) Michael Mayer | LV
17) Tucker Kraft | GB
18) Dalton Schultz | HOU
19) Luke Musgrave | GB
20) Darren Waller | NYG
21) Chigoziem Okonkwo | TEN
22) Cade Otton | TB
23) Hunter Henry | NE
24) Juwan Johnson | NO
25) Gerald Everett | LAC
Should You Trade Likely in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading Likely? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trade offer to make in seconds!
Dynasty rosters are often deep. As a result, fantasy managers can afford to hold Likely until he inevitably gets an opportunity to be a team’s starting tight end, whether it be with the Ravens or somewhere else. The problem is, barring another Andrews injury, that’s not going to happen until at least 2026 when he becomes a free agent.
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Trading Likely is probably not going to fetch much in return. There isn’t exactly a heavy market for a three-year project at the tight end position. But holding Likely is unlikely to push your team any closer to a championship. It’s just a very tricky spot, one that does not arise very often.
Ultimately, the best course of action for fantasy managers is probably going to be to hold. If you desperately need the roster spot, you can always ship Likely away for a third-round rookie pick. But for now, this is a rare situation where you may just need to wait it out.
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