New York Giants wide receiver Isaiah Hodgins was a surprise breakout player last season. On a team lacking a true WR1, Hodgins emerged as a reliable option. With the Giants adding several pass catchers this offseason, will Hodgins be able to sustain any fantasy value? What is his fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season?
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Isaiah Hodgins’ Fantasy Outlook
Hodgins’ path to relevance has been most unconventional. He was a sixth-round pick in 2020 and didn’t play a single down that year. 2021 wasn’t much different, with him appearing in just one contest.
Yet, despite zero production over his first two seasons, Hodgins was able to earn playing time with the Bills in 2022. However, he evidently wasn’t good enough, getting cut halfway through the season.
Given Hodgins’ career trajectory, his release from Buffalo should’ve been it for his NFL career. To his credit, Hodgins was able to latch on with the Giants. It goes without saying he was never intended to be part of their regular rotation.
Injuries to guys like Wan’Dale Robinson and Sterling Shepard, and the trading away of Kadarius Toney, opened the door for Hodgins. By Week 13, he was pretty much a starter, playing over 80% of the snaps in every game from that point forward.
From Week 13-17, Hodgins averaged 15.2 PPR fantasy points per game. He scored a touchdown in four of his final five games (the Giants rested their starters in Week 18).
The thing with Hodgins is he wasn’t just getting volume by being the last man standing in a weak wide receiver corps — the man was getting open. His draft capital and start to his career may not suggest it, but Hodgins is legitimately a talented receiver.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Hodgins at His ADP?
While not overly fast, Hodgins has good size at 6’4″, 210 pounds. That’s key for him on the Giants because he looks different than their cornucopia of prototypical slot receivers.
Robinson is undersized and coming off a torn ACL. Additionally, the Giants have Parris Campbell, Jamison Crowder, and Jalin Hyatt, who all project to play in the slot. Hodgins’ primary competition at outside receiver is Darius Slayton, who the Giants have been looking to replace for years.
There is one wrench I haven’t brought up yet, and that’s Darren Waller. He projects to be, by far, the top pass catcher on this team. While the wide receivers are a medley of WR3/4/5-type guys, Waller is a proven alpha. That leaves everyone else fighting for the rest of the targets on an offense that ran the ball 49% of the time in a neutral game script last season.
Campbell and Hodgins are pretty much tied for the earliest Giants WR drafted in fantasy at WR79 and 81. Not only do managers have no confidence in any receiver on this team, but they have no clue who to even throw darts at. For my money, I think the guy worth taking a stab at is Hodgins.
My projections have Hodgins catching 47 passes for 502 yards and two touchdowns. But I’ve also projected under the assumption that the top Giants WR is going to change weekly. I don’t know, and I projected as such.
Despite my projection, Hodgins looks different than the rest of this team’s wide receivers. Therefore, I view him as the most likely option to break through. As a result, I’ve ranked Hodgins at WR63, well ahead of the consensus.
By no means am I suggesting Hodgins is some sort of prized late-round pick. Rather, he’s a worthwhile dart throw that comes with very little risk. If Hodgins is clearly being relegated back to the bench, you can just drop him. But if he is still the starter, you could end up with a legitimate weekly WR3/4 at the cost of nothing.