The Baltimore Ravens still have a lot to play for this week. A win against the Cleveland Browns will drastically change their playoff picture. What does that mean for Lamar Jackson and the rest of the team’s starters?
Lamar Jackson Set to Play in Week 18
The Ravens have had quite a season, led by Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. Jackson tops PFN’s Quarterback Rankings in 2024 with a QB+ score of 99.8. In fact, Jackson currently finds himself second in the MVP race, according to BetMGM, behind only Buffalo Bills star Josh Allen.
- Josh Allen (-300)
- Lamar Jackson (+250)
In Week 17, Jackson led the Ravens to their 11th victory over the Houston Texans with a final score of 31-2. Jackson rushed for 87 yards on the ground, which got him to a career total of 6,110 career rushing yards. Jackson passed legendary quarterback Michael Vick for the most rushing yards by a quarterback in NFL history.
Become the NFL’s best rushing QB ever… and be so lowkey about it 🔥 pic.twitter.com/oEKVMgFY8O
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) December 26, 2024
Currently, Jackson ranks in the top five in the entire NFL in passing touchdowns (39), PFN’s QB+ (99.8), and passer rating (121.6) ahead of Week 18.
While putting the finishing touches on an MVP campaign isn’t a legitimate reason to start someone in a game, the playoff implications will allow Jackson to try and make a closing argument. It will be interesting to see how well Jackson plays and how much this game matters to voters, especially if the Ravens win.
What the Ravens Need For the Playoffs
The Ravens get a golden opportunity to clinch the AFC North at home against the Cleveland Browns in Week 18. If the Ravens win (or tie), they clinch the division, and there is nothing that the Steelers can do about it when they play later on Saturday. Unless Bailey Zappe, in his first start for the Browns, springs a major upset, the Ravens look set to clinch back-to-back division titles.
Our metrics give the Ravens an 87% chance of winning in Week 18. Zappe has yet to throw a pass for the Browns, with his last game being a 17-3 loss as the quarterback of the New England Patriots in Week 18 of last season. Zappe’s QB+ grade for the 2023 season was an F, with a score of 45 after playing in 10 games.
The Ravens also have a second path to winning the division. If they lose, then the Steelers have to win to clinch the AFC North. That would leave the Steelers and Ravens tied at 11-6, but the Steelers would win the division based on a superior division record (4-2 vs. 3-3).
However, if the Steelers fail to win, the Ravens will clinch the AFC North thanks to a superior win percentage. Our metrics give the Steelers a 60% chance of winning in their game with the Cincinnati Bengals, so there is a 5.2% chance that the Ravens clinch the division via this route. In total, the Ravens have a 92.2% chance of winning the division based on our current win probabilities.
If the Ravens do lose the division to the Steelers, they are guaranteed to finish as the No. 5 seed in the AFC. They beat the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 12, meaning that they have an unassailable tiebreaker advantage. Therefore, if the Ravens lose and the Chargers win, Baltimore will still be the No. 5 seed as both will be tied in terms of record at 11-6.
Finishing as the No. 5 seed would send the Ravens to face the Houston Texans in a game they would be significant favorites to win (67% chance to win, per our metrics). We just saw the Ravens go into Houston and win 31-2, so they will not be afraid of a rematch.
However, playing at home on Wild Card Weekend is always preferable, and it gives the Ravens a chance of hosting either a Divisional Round game, the AFC Championship Game, or both.
If the Ravens win the division, they will host either the Chargers or Steelers. The Ravens are favored to win either of those games, having already beaten the Steelers at home in Week 16 and the Chargers on the road in Week 12. In both matchups, our metrics have the Ravens as winning those games in more than 65% of our simulations.