A mid-round pick in recent fantasy football drafts, Baltimore Ravens RB J.K. Dobbins is nearing a return as he recovers from a torn ACL sustained last year. Given the latest news and apparent optimism surrounding his recovery, is Dobbins playing in Week 2 against the Miami Dolphins, and if so, what can we expect from him?
Update: According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, a source informed him that the Ravens do not expect to play Dobbins in Week 2.
J.K. Dobbins appears ready to play in Week 2
Ravens’ third-year RB J.K. Dobbins is listed as questionable for the team’s matchup with the Dolphins on Sunday, but he was able to log a full week of practices and has a good shot to play. He could find himself very active due to Baltimore’s strong commitment to the run, though the team is likely to exercise caution with its top running back.
Speaking with reporters for the first time since his knee injury 13 months ago, Dobbins didn’t give a clear answer on his Week 2 status. “Well … we’ll see. We’ll see. We’ll see. That’s the answer I got to give you. But I don’t know. I truly don’t know. I hope I am [playing]. Maybe I am. Maybe not,” Dobbins said.
Though he’s progressed on schedule, Dobbins’ recovery has been hampered by the nature of his injury. In addition to his ACL, Dobbins also tore his LCL, meniscus, and hamstring.
The Ravens need Dobbins back after struggling to rack up just 63 yards on the ground against the New York Jets, the lowest total in Lamar Jackson’s 50 career starts. Before his injury last year, Dobbins was coming off a rookie season in which he finished his last seven games with double-digit fantasy points after breaking through Baltimore’s committee approach to the running back position.
As a rookie, Dobbins finished first in the NFL in yards per carry (6.1) and was poised for a breakout in 2021. That breakout can come this year, but given the uncertainty surrounding his usage, he’s no longer the seemingly bulletproof fantasy asset he was heading into last season.
Should you play J.K. Dobbins in Week 2?
To put it simply, I would avoid playing Dobbins in your Week 2 lineups. I would love nothing more than to be wrong here. I hate injuries, and I wish they never happened. And when players come back, I always hope they are 100% and look like they never missed a beat. Unfortunately, that is not reality, and it’s important to take a conservative approach to players returning from injuries when it comes to fantasy.
Being “active” is not the same as being “healthy.” As with Saquon Barkley last year, we’ve seen that it can take running backs returning from ACL injuries quite a while to reach their pre-injury form. Players need to learn to trust their knees again, and that can take far longer than physical recovery. In fact, Dobbins has been talking with Barkley to gain insight on how to attack his recovery.
Even if Dobbins takes the field this week, I don’t believe that we’ll see the same player from 2020, at least not yet. It could take until mid-season for Dobbins to be 85% of his pre-injury self. This was baked into the discount most managers received when they took Dobbins in fantasy drafts.
To be frank, Dobbins was a regression candidate last year after leading the NFL in yards per carry as a rookie. I was down on Dobbins in the 2021 fantasy pre-draft process and would caution managers from rushing to start him right out of the gate. Wait until we see how he looks, then adjust if needed.
Will Kenyan Drake or Mike Davis step up for Baltimore?
Kenyan Drake is the only Baltimore RB I would consider starting in Week 2. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not rushing to start him, but the veteran had a commanding lead in Week 1 snaps (33) and could continue to be involved. Drake rushed 11 times, totaling 31 yards on the ground while adding a 15-yard reception in the team’s 24-9 win over the New York Jets.
Mike Davis is droppable at this point, especially if Dobbins is active this week. He is third on the depth chart and will fall even lower once Gus Edwards returns, which can happen as soon as Week 5.
I wouldn’t write off the possibility of Drake having a productive game in Week 2. Miami is 30th in open field yards and allowed the eighth-highest yards after contact per attempt last season. Miami sits 17th in rush DVOA after one week.
This Baltimore scheme is one that works with darn near any running back. This point was proven last season when the combination of Latavius Murray and Devonta Freeman combined for 15 performances as RB3s (top 36), eight as RB2s (top 24), and four as RB1s (top 12). That’s significant, especially when you consider that defenses were able to key in on Baltimore’s running backs with Jackson missing six of those contests.
In deeper leagues, you could justify taking a shot on Drake. Just know that if the Ravens mix in Dobbins, Drake’s upside will be low.
At the end of the day, the only Baltimore ball carrier you should be excited to play in Week 2 is Jackson, the QB4 in PFN’s Week 2 fantasy rankings.