Cincinnati Bengals tight end Irv Smith Jr. was a popular breakout candidate in each of the past two seasons. Unfortunately, injuries and inconsistent play prevented him from ever emerging. Now with a fresh start in Cincinnati, can Smith become a fantasy factor? What is his 2023 fantasy football projection?
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Irv Smith Jr.’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
It typically takes tight ends a couple of years to get going and truly acclimate to the NFL. And toward the tail-end of his sophomore season, we saw Smith improving and really coming into his own.
In 2020, Smith posted games of 15, 16.3, and 23.3 fantasy points in Weeks 9, 14, and 16, respectively. Over the final three weeks of the season, Smith’s snap share was over 80% on average.
Unsurprisingly, many people were bullish on him entering his third season in 2021. Unfortunately, he tore his meniscus in the preseason and missed the entire year.
Smith was still a breakout hopeful in 2022, but the excitement had waned some. Over the first half of the season, he showed flashes, but injury once again derailed Smith’s season after a Week 8 high ankle sprain cost him the next eight games.
In the interim, the Minnesota Vikings traded for tight end T.J. Hockenson, ending any hopes of Smith returning to a starting role. In eight games, Smith averaged just 6.9 PPR fantasy points per game last season.
Should You Draft Irv Smith Jr. This Year?
Smith was a second-round pick back in 2019. He’s still just 25 years old, and it’s way too soon to close the door on Smith becoming a quality NFL tight end.
With the Vikings now moving forward with Hockenson, it made sense for Smith to go elsewhere. Landing in Cincinnati is about as good of a location as he could’ve asked for.
The Bengals have a very consolidated offense. Nearly 90% of Joe Burrow’s passes went to one of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Hayden Hurst, or Joe Mixon. These are the players who touch the ball.
Smith is presumably stepping right into the Hurst role. While Smith’s target share may only be in the 11-12% range, the Bengals led the NFL in neutral-game-script pass rate last season at 65%. Smith may not see enough volume to be an every-week starter, but he’ll probably have moments that pique the interest of fantasy managers.
Smith’s ADP is currently TE20, No. 176 overall. I have him ranked at TE21. Either way, Smith’s not being drafted as a top-12 TE, and there’s no reason to expect that to change.
For those who wait on tight end in fantasy football drafts, it’s not the worst idea to take a shot on a presumptive starter playing with one of the three best quarterbacks in the NFL. I’m not necessarily targeting Smith, but if I truly punt the position and am just taking whoever is left at the end of drafts, Smith is a viable dart throw at fantasy’s weakest position.
