Some might say the loss of Trey Lance for the game on Sunday night is a negative, but I’m looking at the Indianapolis Colts vs. San Francisco 49ers matchup differently. This is Jimmy Garoppolo’s triumphant return! After being super injured, Garoppolo is back due to Lance’s knee injury. Can he elevate his own game to put the pressure on Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch?
San Francisco 49ers offense vs. Indianapolis Colts defense
In a somewhat shocking turn of events, the 49ers’ offense is being propped up by its passing attack, at least through five games. They’re top 10 in EPA/play (Expected Points Added) through the air but rank just 26th running the football.
However, DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), which is usually somewhat congruent with EPA, tells a different story. It has the San Francisco offense as 10th overall with the 12th-best passing and 15th-best rushing attacks. That 11-place swing in rushing efficiency is peculiar.
After speaking with those who know EPA, I found that the 49ers’ fourth-down failures in the run game had affected their rushing EPA. If we filter out that down, they jump to 15th!
Indianapolis’ defense is both good and bad, which makes them average at the end of the day. They rank first in rush efficiency but are a bottom-five team in passing efficiency. I don’t expect that to improve with the loss of Julian Blackmon, who unfortunately tore his Achilles in practice this past week.
Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Colts defense
So, it should be a good week for Garoppolo to discount double-check the haters with a good day through the air. He’ll need to be sharp after not playing for a few weeks, but he can move this offense.
Listen, Garoppolo’s just not super accurate, particularly to the intermediate areas of the field. However, Shanahan will set him up to play a bunch of quick game concepts, play action, and screens to hide that flaw.
[bet-promo id=”174860″ ]Meanwhile, the Colts have the 11th-most missed tackles in the league, a number that could rise against Deebo Samuel. Garoppolo doesn’t inherently do anything that should scare defenders, but the Indianapolis defense hasn’t performed to expectation. Thus, the tie will always go to the offense in the NFL.
Advantage: 49ers
49ers weapons vs. Colts defensive backs
This should not be as one-sided as it feels. Xavier Rhodes played well in 2020, and Kenny Moore III might be the best pure slot cornerback in the NFL. Heck, Rock Ya-Sin is playing some half-decent football.
So, what’s wrong? Well, that answer is more complicated than simply brushing this off as Moore and Rhodes are not playing up to standard.
The reason they’re struggling is the reason I’ve flipped on the pass rush vs. coverage debate. If we take the talents independent of one another, the Colts should hold the advantage. Guys can only cover for so long, and the pass rush is a problem. More on that on the 11 o’clock news!
Advantage: Colts
49ers offensive line vs. Colts front seven
Welcome to the 11 o’clock news, where only DeForest Buckner is really making a difference as a pass rusher. Kwity Paye is showing up occasionally, but a pass rush must be coordinated. Good quarterbacks can account for the first rusher. The Colts’ defensive front just isn’t complementing one another.
Their linebacker play has been inconsistent, but the flashes of brilliance are there. With Trent Williams on the mend, the left side of the 49ers’ offensive line isn’t as appealing an option to run behind.
From a protection perspective, that loss is felt. But with the nature of the passing attack with Garoppolo, it shouldn’t negatively affect them too much.
Advantage: 49ers
San Francisco 49ers defense vs. Indianapolis Colts offense
Much like the 49ers’ offensive output, their defensive output is about as average as they get. This very much feels like a mid-tier team in a good team’s skin. They’re 16th in defensive EPA/play, and their run and pass rankings are both middle of the pack as well. Likewise, they’re 14th in passing and 15th in rushing DVOAs.
The Colts’ offense isn’t a very consistent group, but big plays have helped even out their production to respectable levels. For example, their passing EPA/play ranks 16th, but with a success rate that’s 26th in the league. Additionally, they’re the 19th-most successful team on the ground, but they rank THIRD in rushing EPA/play. That’s primarily because Jonathan Taylor is massive, fast, and hard to tackle — leading to monster runs.
There are whiffs of Derrick Henry and the Titans’ rushing attack in Indy. By the numbers, this seems like one of the more evenly-matched contests we’ve seen the entire season. Let’s check out the individual matchups, though.
Carson Wentz vs. 49ers defense
It’s safe to say that Carson Wentz has had his struggles over the past 12 months or so. He still very much ranks at or around the lower third in the league. However, he’s played well the past few weeks, starting with the Ravens game.
His success rate has remained low, but he’s fourth in EPA/play in that time and has raised his accuracy over expectation in the past two games. The past three weeks as a whole have been impressive, but the Dolphins and Texans aren’t necessarily nasty defenses. The game that inspired confidence was against the Ravens.
Yet, I’m a fan of the 49ers’ secondary as a whole, primarily because of that safety tandem. Emmanuel Moseley has performed admirably in 2021, but Josh Norman as a starting cornerback is not a winning formula.
Still, I like this group against Wentz, particularly with the additional plus of Fred Warner playing in coverage over the middle.
Advantage: 49ers
Colts weapons vs. 49ers secondary
T.Y. Hilton’s return was huge for Indianapolis’ passing attack, but he is out Sunday night with a quad injury. This year, Michael Pittman Jr. is coming into his own, and Zach Pascal has been a nice complement.
Nyheim Hines makes for another matchup issue for the 49ers’ defense, as does Jack Doyle to a lesser extent. And don’t turn your head now, but even Taylor is jumping into the receiving game, catching 83.3% of his targets and averaging 14 yards per reception, which is exceptional for a running back.
The 49ers’ secondary matches up well with the Colts’ weapons. They have the safety play to account for Doyle and try to avoid massive plays downfield. Moreover, their linebackers can cover Hines and Taylor out of the backfield.
In a week lacking much intrigue around the league, this particular matchup is one of the more exciting on paper. However, no Hilton makes this matchup lean.
Advantage: 49ers
Colts offensive line vs. 49ers front seven
Eric Fisher has not returned to his former self after his injury last season. The losses of Braden Smith and Quenton Nelson have crippled the offensive line.
Conversely, the 49ers have lost Javon Kinlaw, which is a tough blow, but talks of an extended absence are terrifying. The degenerative nature of his knee was always going to be a problem at the NFL level.
That leaves Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead as the only bodies left worth really mentioning on the defensive line. Obviously, Fred Warner highlights the group as one of the best, if not the best, linebackers in the NFL.
Advantage: 49ers
Betting line and game prediction
The Colts vs. 49ers game currently favors San Francisco at home by 4 points. With the added consistency of Garoppolo, this feels a bit low, particularly with the injuries the Colts have recently sustained.
But Las Vegas doesn’t keep all those lights on by being wrong too often. So, I’m proceeding with caution heading into this contest. If Wentz can play to the level he has the past three weeks, the Colts can easily keep this within a field goal.
This feels like a 24-21 game, and I’m having issues deciding who scores more points. For that reason, I’m going with the Colts covering, but the 49ers winning.
Colts vs. 49ers Prediction: 49ers 24, Colts 21