Think about where the Indianapolis Colts were at this time a year ago. Interim head coach Jeff Saturday was leading the team, which was just one week away from coughing up a 33-point lead — the largest in NFL history — to the Minnesota Vikings.
Just a season later, first-year HC Shane Steichen has the Colts at 7-5 and in position to secure a playoff spot, despite losing first-round quarterback Anthony Richardson to a season-ending injury in Week 4.
With five weeks remaining in the 2023 campaign, Indianapolis is trending toward the postseason. How can their playoff chances change in Week 14, and do they still have a chance of winning the AFC South?
Week 14 Update
Bengals (7-5) defeated Colts (6-6)
Browns (8-5) defeated Jaguars (8-5)
Jets (5-8) defeated Texans (7-5)
Broncos (7-6) defeated Chargers (5-8)
Bills (7-6) defeat Chiefs (8-5)
What Are the Indianapolis Colts’ Playoff Chances Entering Week 14?
If the season ended today, the Colts would be in the playoffs as the sixth seed.
MORE: Indianapolis Colts Depth Chart
Indy has the same 7-5 record as the Cleveland Browns, but Kevin Stefanski’s team holds a head-to-head tiebreaker thanks to its one-point win in Week 7. The Browns are currently the No. 5 seed.
The Colts also have an identical record as the Houston Texans, but they’re ahead of C.J. Stroud and Co. in the Wild Card race and the AFC South standings because they beat the Teans in Week 2.
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gives Indy the third-best playoff odds (61%) among the conference’s Wild Card contenders, behind the Texans and Browns but ahead of the Pittsburgh Steelers, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, and Denver Broncos.
As long as the Colts stay one game better than that crop — all of whom have six losses — over the rest of the season, they’ll be able to clinch a Wild Card entry.
It almost goes without saying that Indianapolis’ Week 14 matchup in Cincinnati is critical for their playoff chances. If the Colts win, their postseason odds will increase to 82%. But a loss will make them coin-flip playoff candidates.
While Indy can’t clinch a postseason berth any time soon, it can nearly statistically secure an entry by beating the Bengals and Steelers over the next two weeks. If Gardner Minshew can take down those fellow Wild Card hopefuls, the Colts’ playoff chances will sit at 96% after Week 15, regardless of what happens elsewhere around the NFL.
Here’s Indianapolis’ remaining schedule:
- Week 14: at CIN
- Week 15: vs. PIT
- Week 16: at ATL
- Week 17: vs. LV
- Week 18: vs. HOU
Can Indy Still Win the AFC South?
A Wild Card slot is Indianapolis’ most likely path to the playoffs, as FPI gives them just a 10.3% shot at winning the AFC South. The Colts can increase those odds to one in three by winning their next two games.
Indy is just a game behind the 8-6 Jacksonville Jaguars for the division lead. With Trevor Lawerence hampered by a high ankle sprain and set to face the Browns and Baltimore Ravens — who field arguably the NFL’s two best defenses — the Jaguars could begin to cede ground over the next two weeks.
However, Jacksonville has two significant advantages over Indianapolis. The Jags have already swept their season against the Colts, giving them a head-to-head tiebreaker. And Jacksonville also has a better record inside the AFC South (4-1) than Indy (3-2).
The Colts would also have to fend off the Texans, but they could have a decent chance at keeping Houston at bay. Indianapolis defeated the Texans in Week 2 and face them again in the regular-season finale. Additionally, the Colts’ divisional record is far superior to Houston’s (1-2).
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