The Indianapolis Colts are in a weird spot. At 6-7, they’re neither great nor terrible; they’re somewhere in between. They also have a franchise quarterback in Anthony Richardson, who might not actually be a franchise quarterback. Nevertheless, the Colts faced a must-win game this Sunday when they took on the New England Patriots on the road.
After their thrilling last-second victory over New England, what are Indy’s chances of making the playoffs or winning the Super Bowl? Let’s look at all the scenarios in play.
Can the Colts Make the Playoffs?
Heading into Week 14, the Indianapolis Colts are 6-7 and now have a 31.9% chance to make the playoffs.
They have a 0.0% chance for the first seed, a <0.1% chance for the second seed, a 0.5% chance for the third seed, a 20.7% chance for the fourth seed, a 0.6% chance for the fifth seed, a 2.6% chance for the sixth seed, and a 7.3% chance for the seventh seed.
Can the Colts Win the AFC South?
Here’s what the AFC South race looks like heading into Week 14:
- The Houston Texans have a 76.8% chance to win the AFC South.
- The Indianapolis Colts have a 21.3% chance to win the AFC South.
- The Tennessee Titans have a 1.6% chance to win the AFC South.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have a 0.0% chance to win the AFC South.
Current AFC South Standings
- Houston Texans (8-5)
- Indianapolis Colts (6-7)
- Tennessee Titans (3-9)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10)
AFC Playoff Race | Week 18
1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1)
2. Buffalo Bills (13-3)
3. Baltimore Ravens (12-5)
4. Houston Texans (9-7)
5. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6)
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
7. Denver Broncos (9-7)
In The Hunt
9. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8)
8. Miami Dolphins (8-8)
Eliminated From Playoffs
10. Indianapolis Colts (7-9)
11. New York Jets (4-12)
12. Las Vegas Raiders (4-12)
13. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12)
14. Tennessee Titans (3-13)
15. New England Patriots (3-13)
16. Cleveland Browns (3-14)
Colts’ Super Bowl Chances After Week 13
Can the Colts win the Super Bowl? The PFN Playoff Predictor projects that Indianapolis has a <0.1% chance to win it all.
Colts’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 14: BYE
- Week 15: at Denver Broncos
- Week 16: vs. Tennessee Titans
- Week 17: at New York Giants
- Week 18: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
What PFN Predicted for Colts vs. Patriots Matchup
Here’s where the Patriots and Colts rank in various Pro Football Network metrics.
Colts
Offense+ Metric: 22nd (D+)
Defense+ Metric: 21st (C-)
Anthony Richardson QB+ Metric: 33rd (D-)
Patriots
Offense+ Metric: 31st (D-)
Defense+ Metric: 27th (D+)
Drake Maye QB+ Metric: 23rd (C-)
In theory, the 5-7 Colts are better than the 3-9 Patriots, but there won’t be any excuses if New England fails to perform well in this game.
Indianapolis defensive coordinator Gus Bradley runs a simplistic Cover-3 scheme that’s easy to pick apart. The Patriots, even with their issues on offense, should have a strong plan for moving the ball against the Colts’ defense. Don’t be surprised if Maye puts on a career-best performance as a result.
However, we just don’t know what to expect from New England’s defense. Indy’s offense is limited, and Richardson is good for at least a few big mistakes each game. However, the Patriots’ defense has been ill-prepared for too many games this season. New England must bottle up Jonathan Taylor and keep Richardson in the pocket.
Fans probably can expect a close game. All but two of Indy’s first 12 games were decided by one score, with the two outliers being a 30-20 Week 10 loss to the Buffalo Bills and last Sunday’s 24-6 loss to the Detroit Lions.
The Colts have lost four out of their last five games, but those losses were to the Lions, Bills, Minnesota Vikings, and Houston Texans. There’s no shame in that.
Still, when the dust settles, the Patriots should do enough on offense while forcing Richardson into multiple key turnovers. New England wins in a close one.
PFN Prediction: Patriots 24, Colts 17
