Thanksgiving week gives us three football games on Thursday. Exciting? Yes. Fun? Yes. Challenging? Also yes. The tripleheader puts fantasy football managers in the unenviable position of having to make crucial lineup decisions without all the information necessary to make those decisions. One of those decisions is in Las Vegas — should Hunter Renfrow be starting in Week 12 fantasy lineups?
Hunter Renfrow has been as reliable as they come
Through 10 games, Renfrow has hit double-digit PPR fantasy points in eight of them. He’s only had two games where he was unstartable.
On the flip side, Renfrow is never winning you a week. He’s not a difference-maker like teammate Darren Waller. He’s like an old reliable Honda Civic — it’s not flashy, but it’ll get you from point A to point B.
Should we be concerned about the matchup?
The Raiders play the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. Statistically, the matchup is fine. The Cowboys are right in the middle in terms of fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. Last week against the Chiefs, the Cowboys were eaten up underneath by Tyreek Hill. Renfrow and his 5.7 aDOT (average depth of target) live underneath.
With that being said, I am concerned about a repeat of what the Cowboys did to the Falcons. I really think the Cowboys will come out firing this week and put the pressure on the Raiders. They didn’t score a touchdown last week and were thoroughly dispatched by the Chiefs.
The Cowboys seem to respond well to losses. Coaches are making the proper adjustments, and the next game looks much better. I’m afraid if we get that here, it could be a long afternoon for Derek Carr. If Carr can’t get anything going, that obviously limits what his pass catchers can do.
Of course, this is speculation on my part based on narrative. The Cowboys are 7-point home favorites, but this game has an over/under of 51. That gives the Raiders an implied team total of 22, which isn’t bad at all. Even without scoring, Renfrow has proven capable of producing WR3 numbers.
Should fantasy managers start Renfrow on Thanksgiving?
Last week, Renfrow flopped with just 4 catches for 30 yards. Prior to last week’s game, he’d seen 8 or 9 targets in three straight.
I’m willing to write off last week as an anomaly and go right back to Renfrow this week. He’s a rock-solid WR3 who should be good for at least 10 PPR fantasy points. Even if Carr struggles once again, a negative game script is certainly not a bad thing. I like Renfrow to reach his standard 5-50 mark and provide fantasy managers with a solid if unspectacular start to the week.