If you want to make it to your fantasy football championship, you need to make all the right calls in Week 15. One player who will be a topic of fantasy start or sit decisions is Las Vegas Raiders WR Hunter Renfrow. Will a potentially expanded role be enough to get him into your semifinal lineups?
Hunter Renfrow came into the season as a potential breakout candidate
The wide receiver position is by far the deepest in the sport, and you need to stand out to rise above the rest. It also helps if you have a National Championship pedigree. Hunter Renfrow seemed like he could have been one of those players to do it.
The rookie campaign
As a rookie in 2019, Renfrow put up a quietly efficient season. In his 13 games played, Renfrow saw 71 targets. He caught 49 passes for 605 yards and four touchdowns. His targets, receptions, and touchdowns were among the best rookie receivers and 45 yards off the yardage lead.
Renfrow caught at least three passes in each of the team’s final seven games to end the season. He also works where QB Derek Carr wants to throw, on short routes. His average depth of target was 7.00 yards, and Carr’s was a career-low 6.60 yards.
Based on PPR points, Hunter Renfrow would have finished as WR10 if he had maintained that pace for an entire season, and he would have been WR14 on a points per game basis.
Did I mention he did this while starting in only four games?
That’s the craziest part. Hunter Renfrow was coming off the bench all season, even though the Raiders had a poor WR group. Coming into 2020, Renfrow should have continued this trajectory.
2020 has been a slight regression for Hunter Renfrow
If you came into this as I did, thinking Renfrow was a solid late-round value, you have been slightly disappointed. Very few weeks has Hunter Renfrow been a topic of a start or sit decision in standard fantasy leagues.
In 13 games this year, Renfrow has started five. His stat line is unimpressive, with 63 targets, hauling in 47 passes for 594 yards and two touchdowns.
Could 2020 be a better season statistically than 2019? From a purely statistical standpoint, sure, but marginally. His current pace has him on target for seven more targets, nine more receptions, and 120 more yards than 2019. The issue is all of that gets canceled out by the lack of touchdowns.
Darren Waller’s sensational play has cannibalized any looks that could have gone Renfrow’s way as they operate in the same area of the field. He is also not the deep threat of Nelson Agholor, who is having a career season of his own.
However, there is some hope for Hunter Renfrow to see a boost in fantasy for Week 15 and creep into a sneaky start or sit decision.
Henry Ruggs has been placed on the NFL reserve list
According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Raiders rookie WR Henry Ruggs III has been placed on the NFL’s reserve list. There has yet to be any confirmation if it was a positive test or a close contact situation. Due to the timing, Ruggs is forced to be out and miss the Thursday Night game against the Los Angeles Chargers.
We will need to pay close attention to the contact tracing to ensure no other players will miss the game.
NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reported that the NFL has also changed its protocols as the playoffs approach.
“Based on NFL testing data from the last five months, our experts have recommended that we no longer permit an asymptomatic individual who tests positive to return following two (2) consecutive negative PCR tests.”
This means there is a mandatory 10-day period before a player can return to the team.
In his 11 games, Ruggs has 23 receptions on 38 targets for 414 yards and two touchdowns. The loss of Ruggs will elevate Hunter Renfrow on the depth chart, and he should see additional targets on Thursday in what could sneakily be a high scoring game.
Should you start or sit Hunter Renfrow in fantasy Week 15?
With Ruggs out, that frees up roughly 3.4 targets per game if you subscribe to the vacated targets theory. Is that enough to tip the scales for Hunter Renfrow in a start or sit decision with the fantasy season on the line? I am not sure it does, honestly.
Even with a bump on the pecking order, he is still, at best, third in the progression. Nelson Agholor and Darren Waller are firmly entrenched ahead of him. If we look at the last three games, there is a glimmer of hope.
Over the last three weeks, Renfrow has 22 targets (46% of the season total) for 158 yards on 16 receptions. The downside is the touchdowns, something he has not had since Week 8.
The Chargers have been solid against wide receivers. They have allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to WRs per game at 34.44. But if this is a mini-shootout as we think it could be, Hunter Renfrow could have a WR4 fantasy finish. If his three-game average holds, that’s 7.3 targets, 5.3 receptions, and 52.7 yards. That’s 10.3 PPR points. That would have been the WR41 in Week 14. Think of Hunter Renfrow as the Cole Beasley-lite.
The upside is capped due to the lack of scoring, but if you are in a deeper league and need a flex play, Hunter Renfrow should have a stable fantasy floor in Week 15.
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Tommy Garrett is a writer for PFN covering Fantasy Football. You can read more of his work here and follow him at@TommygarrettPFNon Twitter.