Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Hunter Renfrow was a revelation in 2021. He became the unexpected WR1 for the Raiders and was one of the best waiver wire additions of the season. With the Raiders adding Davante Adams to the mix, what can fantasy football managers expect from Renfrow in the 2022 season, and is he worth his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Hunter Renfrow’s fantasy outlook for 2022
I remember picking up Renfrow after around Week 3 last season. He wasn’t playing a significant portion of the snaps, but Week 3 is about when you give up on all of your late-round dart throws that don’t pan out (which is most of them, if we’re being honest). My logic was Renfrow would be a solid guy off the bench that wouldn’t get me zero. Never in my wildest dreams could I have imagined what he would become.
Instead of being a spot-starter guy, Renfrow emerged into an every-week must-start. He averaged 15.2 PPR fantasy points per game last season. 16 ppg is about the threshold for WR1 production. Renfrow hit that mark an incredible nine times last season.
Renfrow’s career-high 21.7% target share was no fluke. He commanded those targets. The 2021 Raiders lacked an established pass catcher behind Darren Waller. Renfrow earned that role by running crisp routes and getting open. Neither fast nor athletic, Renfrow is simply good at football.
How the Raiders’ depth chart impacts Hunter Renfrow’s fantasy projection for the season
Entering the 2022 fantasy football season, we can confidently say Renfrow most likely will not repeat his 2021 season. The Raiders made some changes to their offense, most notably trading for Davante Adams. We knew the Raiders would bring in target competition. They didn’t have to bring in a guy averaging over a 30% target share the past four seasons.
Had the Raiders brought in an outside field stretcher or typical flanker, it wouldn’t have been as bad. Adams is a complete receiver. There is nothing he can’t do. Now that’s a problem for Renfrow.
Renfrow will no longer be Derek Carr’s top guy
Last season, Renfrow was often Derek Carr’s primary read. He was the guy Carr looked to when he needed something quick underneath, as evidenced by Renfrow’s minuscule 6.6 average depth of target. This season, that guy is going to be Adams. Renfrow also had 24 red-zone targets. A bulk of those are going to Adams. Essentially, Adams is going to do everything Renfrow did, except he’s going to do it better and do more.
There’s also the issue of Renfrow not really playing in two-receiver sets. Despite being the Raiders’ leading receiver last season with 103 catches for 1,038 yards and nine touchdowns, Renfrow played just 66% of the snaps. He spent 64% of the time in the slot. That comports with the Raiders running 11 personnel (three-WR sets) 62% of the time.
Renfrow is not just going to disappear
While Renfrow’s value will undoubtedly be lower this season, he’s not going to be worthless suddenly. Renfrow has proven himself to be a good wide receiver. Carr can certainly support three fantasy-relevant pass catchers. If anything, it’s Adams and Waller who might be a bit overvalued, and perhaps the hate on Renfrow has gone a bit too far.
Behind Renfrow are Mack Hollins and Keelan Cole. This passing attack should be very consolidated, with Adams, Waller, and Renfrow commanding well over 60% of the total targets.
Last season, Carr attempted 36.8 passes per game. In the previous two seasons, he averaged just over 32 pass attempts per game. Whether the Raiders remain as pass-heavy this season as they were last season will significantly impact whether Renfrow can provide WR3 fantasy value.
Renfrow’s ADP for 2022
Renfrow’s ADP is just above 80th overall. He’s being taken as the 32nd wide receiver off the board. It goes without saying that Renfrow is unlikely to match his WR16 finish from 2021. However, he’s still the clear WR2 on an offense that should, given their weapons, throw over 600 times this season. In PFN’s consensus 2022 PPR fantasy rankings, Renfrow is the WR39 and sits 98th overall.
The problem with Renfrow is he’s not the type of player you typically look for at his ADP. While he’s not overly expensive, Renfrow’s path to outperforming his ADP hinges on an injury. He will need something to happen to Adams or Waller.
Renfrow has proven that he’s good at football. He was Carr’s top target last season. Carr isn’t going to suddenly forget about him simply because Adams is on the team.
If your roster is constructed in such a way that a floor guy like Renfrow makes sense, he’s probably a value at his ADP. However, if you’re looking for a player that can potentially smash his ADP, Renfrow is probably not your guy.