New England Patriots tight end Hunter Henry is coming off a top-seven tight end season in fantasy football in 2021. What is Henry’s fantasy outlook for 2022, and what’s his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Hunter Henry’s fantasy outlook for 2022
The Patriots signed two tight ends to huge contracts last offseason: Henry and Jonnu Smith. Fantasy managers expected one of the two to emerge as the more dominant producer, but which one was difficult to predict? Henry’s injury history put him at risk of not being worth the investment.
Instead, Henry finished the year as the seventh-best tight end in fantasy football while Smith toiled away on the bench. Smith finished 33rd, basically unrosterable. There’s no reason to think that drastically changes in 2022.
Henry lost his offensive coordinator as Josh McDaniels departed to Las Vegas. But it’s Mac Jones’ second season, and that continuity keeps building the momentum between the two. For Henry to repeat his performance, he must continue dominating in the red zone.
In total, Henry caught 50 passes for 603 yards and nine touchdowns. Henry and Dawson Knox were the only two tight ends in the top 11 of scoring with less than 763 yards. They were both tied for the most touchdowns at their position.
Only Mark Andrews finished 2021 with a better season in the red zone. Henry caught half of his 18 targets for 77 yards and all nine of his touchdowns. He was one of three tight ends to score at least 49 fantasy points in the red zone alone.
How the Patriots’ depth at receiver impacts Hunter Henry’s fantasy projection for this season
Projecting the Patriots’ receiving corps was difficult last year because of the number of new faces and reliance on a rookie passer. We know more now than we did a year ago, but there’s still uncertainty. The additions of DeVante Parker and Tyquan Thornton could further complicate Henry’s value.
Henry will only be an average starter if he sustains his touchdown rate. Parker’s presence is troubling because he’s a possession threat. Or there’s the possibility of Smith being incorporated more with the absence of a true offensive coordinator the Patriots are entering the season with.
Veteran receivers Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne can be solid role players if given the opportunity. Agholor should be traded with Thornton on the roster, but for now, he remains a looming threat because he is talented. Jakobi Meyers is an ascending option who led the team in yards last year.
It’s hard to envision a repeat of Henry’s touchdown rate from 2021. He should be a solid presence for this offense, but any touchdown regression will push him into a backup or fringe-starter role. At least Henry seems to have gotten past his injury woes (he missed 22 games from 2018-2020).
Henry’s ADP for 2022
After his impressive 2021 performance, it is no surprise that Henry’s ADP sees him being drafted as a late-round pick, despite uncertainty over his role. He is currently being selected around the 155th selection as the TE14. Henry is a player that is often being viewed as a late-round selection as either a second tight end or by a manager who ignored the position almost entirely.
That value for Henry is largely spot on. In PFN’s consensus 2022 PPR fantasy rankings, he is the TE15 at 149th overall. The problem for Henry is that he is very much a touchdown or bust candidate when it comes to being a top-10 tight end. His catch rate is not high enough, or his target share is not great enough to be able to have that value without getting in the end zone on more than five occasions.
However, you can make that case for a lot of tight ends, especially the ones being selected late in drafts. What we do know about Henry is that there is a role for him in this offense. As a late-round pick, he is certainly a fine dart throw. However, drafting him as a second tight end is somewhat redundant. No matter who your first tight end is, you are rarely going to feel good about Henry in your flex spot.
Equally, if your starting tight end struggles, you can likely stream similar options to Henry on a weekly basis. The value at his current ADP is fine, but the upside is relatively limited unless you think he can get back to nine touchdowns on what should be a similar target share.