Much has been made about the fact that the Kansas City Chiefs were bold enough to trade away a premier receiver in order to save cap space. A bold move that helped both the Miami Dolphins reach new heights in passing efficiency and allowed the Chiefs the latitude they needed to get to the Super Bowl.
While it’s easy to take a look at the receivers the Chiefs acquired this past offseason — JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore, Justin Watson, and Kadarius Toney — they did more than simply replace Tyreek Hill with a bevy of other receivers all hoping to fulfill their roles.
Kansas City replaced their offense. They had been preparing to move on from Hill since last year, when they added four new members to their offensive line.
In essence, the Chiefs replaced Hill not with receivers, but with offensive linemen.
The Kansas City Chiefs Needed New Receivers, And They Helped
Obviously, they couldn’t construct the best offensive line in history and still throw the ball if all they had was Travis Kelce, as remarkable as he is. Kansas City needed receivers if they were going to move on from Hill. And as good as their additions have been, the Chiefs knew they had to find players that can help Patrick Mahomes take over games.
Adding both Valdes-Scantling and Smith-Schuster to the roster works as a sort-of replacement out of the gate. While Hill’s forte is speed, he’s been excellent at all depths and had a full route tree in Kansas City. According to Matt Harmon at Reception Perception, Hill’s routes were substantially more successful than the NFL average regardless of depth, with only flat routes and out routes.
Harmon’s method for charting receivers regardless of target and noting how open they get is invaluable for this type of analysis, especially as it reveals something interesting with the two veteran free agent replacements. MVS was much more successful than the average receiver on basically two routes: the “go” route — a straight shot deep downfield — and the corner route, a deep route angled towards the sideline.
Smith-Schuster was successful on all of the short routes — slants, smokes, screens, flat,s and so on. He can be useful in the intermediate ranges, but he doesn’t really have the capability to get open deep. Both he and Valdes-Scantling really combine to be one complete receiver, which is, in a way, what Hill is.
That’s not really replacing Hill, though. One of the advantages to having Hill is that he opens up space for other receivers on the roster. Having two players perform one role doesn’t do that because they can be covered by two defenders with no space advantages to be gained, like when Hill draws double coverage.
But the two of them still provide schematic advantages, especially for Mahomes’ style of play. MVS is one of the least efficient players on Kansas City, but he’s still valuable to have on the roster. He ranks sixth among Chiefs players in yards gained per route run, behind Kelce, Toney, Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman, and Jerick McKinnon.
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At first glance, having Valdes-Scantling on the field seems to be a detriment. The Chiefs generate more yards per attempt when he’s off the field than on. But the problem with that is that Valdes-Scantling is a situational player, so he’s on the field in more difficult situations that require passing the ball. When controlling for down and distance, the Chiefs gain more yards per attempt when he’s on the field than otherwise.
His ability to alter the geometry of the opposing coverage and force defenders back allows other receivers to take advantage of the space available to them in a way that isn’t always true for other receivers. MVS is not as fast as Hill, but he’s still one of the fastest capable receivers in the NFL, and teams are forced to respect his speed.
Smith-Schuster is efficient and a great player for Mahomes to work with because of how intuitively he plays. Much is made of the chemistry between Mahomes and Kelce — a connection that at times seems mystical — but the basis for it is the ability to see the field in the same way and adjust routes on the fly to out-leverage the opposing coverage.
That’s one reason, among many, that Kelce seems magically so open. It’s because he’s running routes, not in a traditional route tree or even a route that they’ve put on film before. When assigned a corner route on a play, he might break off before the 17-yard break point and angle inside.
In the same way, Smith-Schuster plays an intuitive form of football meant to attack open space. As head coach Andy Reid put it this week, “[Smith-Shuster] also complements Kelce,” he said. “He has that ability to feel in space, openings. And Patrick trusts that. He’s sure-handed. He’s great after the catch. He’s tough to bring down. And he’s smart. He picked all this stuff up, and he did it well — got the confidence of the quarterback, and that takes a lot.”
Moore, a draft addition, has struggled on special teams but has been an asset late in the season and in the postseason in the screen game. Additionally, having both Watson and Hardman available at various points throughout the season has allowed even more of the diverse skill sets of the Chiefs’ receiving corps to shine.
But they don’t get open as often as Hill, and they don’t do it as quickly. For that, Kansas City needs the offensive line.
Chiefs Replaced Hill With Their Offensive Line
In 2021, the Chiefs traded for Orlando Brown, signed Joe Thuney in free agency, and drafted two offensive linemen — Creed Humphrey (second round) and Trey Smith (sixth round). Only Andrew Wylie, Kansas City’s right tackle, has been with the Chiefs longer than two years. His development since 2017 has been extraordinary.
That’s critical. One of the narratives coming out of the Chiefs’ loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV was how the offensive line failed to protect Mahomes. In a sense, that’s very true, though injuries played a big role in the offensive line woes.
But their push to add new offensive linemen wasn’t just a response to that. After all, they had Mitchell Schwartz and Eric Fisher on the outside and Austin Reiter at center — all high-level performers in 2021 before injuries. They were anticipating the need to buy Mahomes more time to get open.
The Chiefs’ offensive line is better than it ever has been in the Andy Reid era despite the loss of Schwartz. But at first glance, that doesn’t seem to be true.
The pressure rate that Kansas City’s allowed in the Mahomes era is actually the fourth-highest it’s ever been, and the sack rate is about average. But the difference is that Mahomes doesn’t have a receiving option to get rid of the ball right away.
First in Pass-Rush Win Rate
The offensive line is blocking for longer and more successfully than they’ve been. Not only is their pass-rush win rate No. 1 in the league — a statistic that measures how often an offensive line prevents penetration in the pocket in the first 2.5 seconds in the play — it’s first by a significant margin.
Mahomes’ time to throw is the longest it’s ever been despite the fact that he’s been blitzed more now than ever before. The percentage of throws that occur after the three-second mark is higher than ever and so is the average length of time it takes for pressure to appear.
When looking at throws before the 2.5-second mark, between 2.5 and 2.75 seconds, and those between 2.76 and 3, Mahomes has seen the lowest pressure rate of his career.
The difference is that he’s moving throws that used to take 2.5 seconds into the 2.75-second range; 2.75 into 3. And so on. That extra time has allowed receivers to get open as teams struggle to keep up with Mahomes in the scramble drill.
That’s why Mahomes has been averaging more expected points per dropback than any other season besides his coming-out party in 2018. That’s why he’s averaging more adjusted net yards per attempt and has a higher passer rating than all of his non-2018 seasons. When Mahomes gets to take longer to make a decision, he makes a better decision.
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Unsurprisingly, Mahomes averages more yards per attempt and expected points per dropback the longer he gets to hold on to the ball. His passing depth goes up, his explosive play rate increases, and his TD rate blows up.
The reason quarterbacks control sack rate and pressure rate is not because offensive linemen are interchangeable. They’re incredibly important. It’s because a good offensive line allows the quarterback to make more choices. They can hold on to the ball longer if they need to and anticipate different throwing windows.
Quarterbacks will make offensive lines look similar one year to the next just from holding on to the ball until they no longer feel comfortable doing it. That’s why pressure rates and “pass block win rates” don’t always line up. QBs take advantage of what offensive lines give them, and when those lines give them more, they get more out of it.
The Chiefs didn’t replace Hill with Smith-Shuster and Valdes-Scantling. They replaced him with Brown, Thuney, Humphrey, and Smith.