How the Bengals Converted a Play With a 1.9% Success Rate To Beat the Vikings

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Jake Browning’s jump-ball heave to Tee Higgins for a game-tying 21-yard touchdown in the final minute on Saturday had a completion probability of just 25%, according to NextGen Stats.

That’s the lowest probability for any of Browning’s 106 career completions and the second lowest of the season for the Bengals, next to a Joe Burrow four-yard touchdown pass to Higgins in Week 2 that had a 24.4% probability.

However, there is a speculative element to those NextGen numbers, which are based on the separation a receiver had from the nearest defender, where the receiver was on the field, the separation the passer had at the time of the throw from the nearest pass rusher, and other factors.

But there was another play Saturday that had a far lower chance of succeeding based on history and raw, proven data.

Rare 3rd-and-21 Conversion Key to Cincinnati Bengals’ Comeback

The less likely play would be the 3rd-and-21 conversion in the fourth quarter when Browning hit Ja’Marr Chase for 24 yards to extend a drive that ended with Joe Mixon’s one-yard touchdown run to tie the game.

“It was really good in a lot of ways,” Bengals head coach Zac Taylor said of the 3rd-and-21 conversion. “It was good protection. It was a good job by Ja’Marr running with speed in there, and then Jake landed it in there.

“I think we got one full-speed rep at that this week, and we threw a pick on it in practice,” Taylor added. “So for Jake to come back and just drill it in there — it was a different coverage look — but it was impressive.”

GAME BALLS FOR EVERYONE!

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Before Saturday, there had been 101 third downs across the league this season where teams needed 21 yards or more to convert. Only twice was the team able to move the chains. That’s a 1.9% success rate.

The Kansas City Chiefs did it late in their Week 4 win against the New York Jets when they converted a 3rd-and-23 play on a 25-yard scramble by Patrick Mahomes while leading 23-20.

MORE: Ja’Marr Chase Injury Update — Latest News Surrounding Bengals WR

And the Washington Commanders did it late in the first half of their Week 9 win against the New England Patriots, with Sam Howell scrambling for 24 yards on third and 23.

The last team to do it in the fourth quarter while trailing was the Patriots in a Week 16 game last year against the Bengals when Mac Jones hit Jakobi Meyers for a 48-yard touchdown on a 4th-and-29.

“There’s different situations in the course of a game where you need to be aggressive on third-and-long, and some you don’t,” Taylor said. “That was one where we needed to be aggressive because of where we were in the fourth quarter.”

Because the likelihood of conversion is so low, teams often resort to screens or draw plays to avoid taking any unnecessary risks that could lead to a turnover in hopes they can flip the field with a good punt.

The Bengals had converted zero out of 77 third-and-21+ situations from Week 3, 2009, until Week 16, 2021, when Burrow hit Chase for a 30-yard gain on third-and-27 against the Chiefs with 3:19 left in a tied game the Bengals went on to win 34-31.

They converted zero out of eight ensuing tries before Bengals quarterback coach Dan Pitcher suggested the play — the one they barely repped and ended in practice with an interception — that featured the dagger route Chase ran for 24 yards on his final play Saturday before leaving with a shoulder injury.

“A lot of people did their jobs on that play, and it ends up [being where] you’re able to hit a void in there and get a big play on third down,” Taylor said. “Jake did a great job with the location of the throw and the timing of the throw. The protection was really good. And Ja’Marr ran through there.”

The Minnesota Vikings showed an all-out blitz look, as they often do before dropping out, which is why they lead the league in dropping eight defenders.

Taylor said he wasn’t sure what to expect on that play because of the uniqueness of the Minnesota scheme and the advantage the defense has by dropping into coverage in that situation.

“They have a huge advantage,” Taylor said. “They’re forcing you into tight windows down the field. They can play vision on the quarterback. Their guys are teeing off, not worried about the run. So you’re usually in a disadvantaged situation.”

But at the same time, the Vikings had been calling zero blitzes in that area of the field, and it’s a defense that leads the league in blitz percentage.

“Sometimes teams look for the knockout punch there, so they zero you,” he said. “You’ve got to get the ball out quick, and then they rally to make the tackle in a long situation.

“They did a good job holding their disguises,” Taylor added. “Our guys hung in there on that one, hung in there, and stuck with the play and hit a big one down there.”

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