New Orleans Saints WR Michael Thomas tweeted this morning that he will not play this season. In a week that already has been filled with off-the-field tragedies and on-the-field injuries, Thomas’ decision is yet another reminder of the ephemeral nature of NFL success, and of life itself. Because you clicked here to read about fantasy football, here are the implications for those of you in dynasty and redraft leagues, as well as all of you trying to prepare for Week 9.
Michael Thomas’ Fantasy Outlook
In his tweet, Thomas stated that he “will do everything in my power to get back to the player I have always been,” and that he “can’t wait to be back on the field in front of the best fans on the planet.” There are three fantasy storylines to unpack here.
First, I believe we should take him at his word that he wants to play again. Still only 28 years old, Thomas is only two seasons removed from one of the greatest seasons by a receiver in NFL history: 149 receptions for 1,725 yards and 9 touchdowns.
For the second straight year, he caught more than 80% of his targets. Try to find any starting receiver in the history of this league who has done that once, let alone twice. Whenever he returns, Thomas has the ability to be a WR1. Perhaps his best days are behind him. But no one should underestimate the ceiling of someone who’s still in their prime.
Thomas remains under contract until 2024
Second, he is under contract with the Saints until 2024. As my PFN colleague Ben Rolfe wrote in August, if he were traded next year, “the Saints would be left with $22.7 million in dead money for 2022.” But beginning in 2023, his salaries are not guaranteed, “so the team could move on ahead of either season with no salary cap impact.”
Third, and perhaps most unexpectedly, Thomas’s tweet suggests he’s looking forward to playing for the Saints next year. This might simply be a good P.R. move. Or it could signal that he wants to make things work with this franchise after a publicly messy back and forth earlier this year.
Whatever the reasons, unless the Saints make wholesale changes to their passing attack, Thomas could return in 2022 as the clear-cut No. 1 receiver. That would be a boon for his fantasy value.
Fantasy outlooks for other Saints players
Seeing as he hasn’t played all season, the Thomas news should not have a material impact on any Saints player.
We still don’t fully know whether Taysom Hill will start Week 9 in place of the injured Jameis Winston, or if Hill’s concussion will prevent him from taking the field — meaning Trevor Siemian would earn his first start of 2021 after faring well last weekend against the Bucs. So we still don’t know how this evolving QB situation will affect Alvin Kamara or Mark Ingram (probably not much) or any of the receivers.
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But we can conclude that Thomas’ continued absence provides a small opening for Marquez Callaway or Deonte Harris to seize the team’s WR1 role, which could eventually lead to fringe WR3 production. Callaway leads his fellow receivers with 33 targets, followed by Harris with 23 (playing in one less game). Yet, Harris has racked up 271 yards and 2 TDs compared to Callaway’s 284 and 3 TDs. Bottom line, Harris has done more with less.
If you’re in a deep league, this is a good time to pick up Callaway or Harris if available. With Siemian at quarterback in Week 8, Harris earned 6 targets compared to Callaway’s 4. While it’s too early to know if that will turn into a trend, it’s useful to consider when making waiver decisions ahead of Week 9.