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    How Do Caleb Williams and Drake Maye Compare to Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert as Prospects?

    Caleb Williams and Drake Maye are two of the most anticipated NFL Draft prospects in recent memory. How do they compare to Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert?

    How do Caleb Williams and Drake Maye — two of the top 2024 NFL Draft quarterback prospects — compare to some of the best current NFL starters, like Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert? Can they be expected to earn similar outcomes? Let’s discuss.

    Caleb Williams, Drake Maye Juxtaposed With Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert

    The quarterbacks always dominate the headlines during the NFL Draft cycle, and the 2024 cycle has two of the best, most intriguing QB prospects in recent memory with USC’s Williams and North Carolina’s Maye.

    The two have been trading the QB1 mantle back and forth so far this season, but both are considered viable candidates for the No. 1 overall pick and worthy franchise QB options.

    But the combined production and heavy media imprint of each QB has caused many to rush to judgment — both good and bad, as well as the rush to compare the incoming rookies with veteran signal-callers and project their impact.

    For example, on a recent segment of “UnSportsmanLike with Evan, Canty, and Michelle” on ESPN Radio, the topic of Tua versus Herbert was brought up, and one co-host posited that teams might prefer Williams over Tagovailoa, in large part due to Williams’ otherworldly playmaking and Tagovailoa’s poor durability.

    It was ultimately an abstract thought exercise without any bearing — the Dolphins are clearly happy with the way Tagovailoa has been operating the offense — but it does bring about an interesting question within the NFL Draft lens.

    How do Williams and Maye compare to Tagovailoa and Herbert — two first-rounders who’ve blossomed into stars?

    Williams and Tagovailoa Are Polar Opposites Stylistically

    Let’s start with the quarterbacks who were most directly compared in the aforementioned radio segment: Williams and Tagovailoa.

    On the surface, Williams and Tagovailoa are similar in terms of stature. Williams is listed around 6’1″, 215 pounds, while Tagovailoa plays at around 6’1″, 227 pounds. Tagovailoa has obviously had more time to bulk up with an NFL training regimen, but they carry similar builds.

    In this particular comparison, however, build is where most of the similarities end. Both in terms of style and talent level, Williams and Tagovailoa are vastly different prospects.

    On the talent end of the spectrum, Williams easily surpasses Tagovailoa. Williams has elite composite arm talent, rocket-like arm strength, and rare change-of-direction and creative feel. Tagovailoa is a tremendous QB, but he’s only a passable athlete with an average arm.

    While Williams surpasses Tagovailoa’s talent level, however, Tagovailoa is lightyears better as a pocket operator and a passer. That’s to be expected, of course — but even as a prospect, Tagovailoa was more accurate than Williams, more composed within structure, and much better at taking what’s given and keeping plays on schedule.

    MORE: Top QBs in the 2024 NFL Draft

    One of the biggest flaws of Williams’ game is that he creates his own chaos with his high-variance play. He holds the ball too long and passes up open chances in the short range. Tagovailoa, meanwhile, is one of the least chaotic passers in the NFL because of his lightning-quick processing, hasty internal clock, decision-making, and unflappable accuracy.

    More simply put, Williams is a playmaker. Tagovailoa is a distributor, and a truly elite one. Williams needs to blend more of that archetype into his play.

    Maye to Herbert Is a Reasonable Comp

    The Williams-to-Tagovailoa comparison is a comparison of polar opposites, but Maye and Herbert is a much more reasonable 1-to-1 comparison in the 2024 NFL Draft.

    Drake Maye (10) runs the ball during the first half of the game against the Syracuse Orange at Kenan Memorial Stadium.
    Oct 7, 2023; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Drake Maye (10) runs the ball during the first half of the game against the Syracuse Orange at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-USA TODAY Sports

    Herbert and Maye are both big-bodied passers with excellent size-adjusted athleticism. Herbert’s arm might be a touch stronger, but he’s in the 99th percentile with his arm strength.

    Maye still has elite velocity and ease of motion, and he’s also an effortless off-platform thrower with great torquing ability.

    What’s interesting about the styles of Herbert and Maye, however, is that while both are exceedingly talented, both play within their means. As a prospect, Herbert checked the athleticism box, but he did most of his damage from within the pocket, carving through zone coverage with high-velocity lasers.

    Granted, Herbert’s offense at Oregon was naturally restricting as well, often working with lateral concepts. Maye’s North Carolina offense allows him to unleash a bit more. However, the standard trademarks for evaluation are the same.

    MORE: Free NFL Mock Draft Simulator With Trades

    Herbert and Maye are both elite physical talents, who don’t rely on that physical talent to a fault. Maye is disciplined in the pocket, a sound decision-maker, a situationally precise and anticipatory passer, and an able creator who only relies on that creation capacity when he needs to.

    That discretionary use of elite talent is what made Herbert so compelling, and it’s the same quality that causes some to prefer Maye to Williams in the 2024 NFL Draft.

    A better comparison for Williams might be a bigger Kyler Murray. No one disputes his hyper-elite creation capacity and arm talent, and those traits in a vacuum can generate incredible plays.

    But right now, Williams is still toning down the volatility that comes with his high-variance play style, and he’ll need to grow as a distributor if he wants to reach his ultimate ceiling, challenging the likes of Herbert and Tagoavailoa at the NFL level.

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