The Houston Texans‘ preview takes a look at Noah Brown’s fantasy football value, while the Tennessee Titans‘ outlook dives into their backfield.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
- Spread: Titans -3
- Total: 38
- Texans implied points: 17.5
- Titans implied points: 20.5
Quarterbacks
C.J. Stroud: The rookie is working through concussion protocol, and with four games being played before Sunday, managers with Stroud are potentially facing a difficult position this week. Will he be able to play?
If so, he’s a top-12 option against a pass-funnel defense that rarely blitzes. Stroud threw for 348 yards per game in his four most recent performances before the Week 14 dud in New York against the Jets, upside that you can’t leave on your bench if active.
If you’re waiting out this injury, you need to have a plan, whether it be on your bench or the waiver wire. Matthew Stafford entered the week as my favorite widely available option, and that remains the case. If he was scooped up, Jordan Love and Baker Mayfield are two Sunday options that should have your eye.
Will Levis: The upset win in Miami was great to see, but Levis finished another week no better than QB15, something he has done in every game since his debut. There is certainly something in Levis’ profile that should have dynasty managers very interested, but there’s no reason to go in this direction in redraft leagues at this point in the season.
Running Backs
Devin Singletary: This is his backfield for the remainder of the season (32-8 snap edge over Dameon Pierce last week), and that’s comforting if we know that Stroud is OK and that this offense is going to be in scoring positions.
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Even if that’s the case, we are still looking at more of a Flex play than anything in a tough matchup against the best red-zone defense in the league (37.5% TD rate, the only team below 40%). Singletary has managed just one catch over the past two weeks and hasn’t had a 25-yard carry since Christmas Eve.
This running game doesn’t have any stability to it due to the offensive line. If you can avoid Singletary, I would, but don’t shy away in exchange for an all-or-nothing receiver like Jahan Dotson or Gabe Davis.
Dameon Pierce: At just 2.9 yards per carry and six whole feet of receiving yards since mid-October, there’s nothing to see here. Pierce showed flashes as a rookie, and we can deep dive into that this summer when it comes to his long-term outlook, but as far as the 2023 stretch run is considered, Pierce doesn’t matter.
Derrick Henry: Three straight multi-score games, and we are firmly in D-Hember. As corny as that label is, I can’t knock it until it fails. Henry has 56 carries over his past three games, and if that continues against the defense that is one of two to have missed 100 tackles this season, another strong performance is imminent.
The Texans are the second-best run defense on a per-carry basis this season, and that would be a concern in most spots, but not here.
Counting on Henry for efficiency is sort of like a robot vacuum. Is it nice to have? Sure, why not? Is it needed? Nope. Henry’s average positional finish over the past three weeks has been RB7, a stretch that has seen him average a tick under 3.8 yards per carry.
This matchup isn’t great, and if Stroud plays, game script concerns could factor in, but Henry is the type of player I’m OK losing with — he’s a fine RB2 for me in all formats despite the red flags (five straight games without multiple receptions).
Tyjae Spears: The kid is impressive. That’s all there is to it. He also isn’t being allowed to thrive right now, and that makes him nothing more than a risky Flex option at this point in the season.
Spears out-snapped King Henry 45-36 last week and held a commanding 24-11 edge in routes. That usage allowed him to reel in six passes for 89 yards on top of rushing seven times for 29 yards. His role in the passing game is interesting for deep PPR leagues (4+ catches in four of his past six games), but the overall touch upside and scoring potential are both capped in a significant way.
He ranks alongside other explosive secondary options like Chase Brown and Rico Dowdle for me — break glass in case of emergency options more than RBs I am realistically comfortable counting on during the fantasy postseason.
Wide Receivers
Nico Collins: A calf injury resulted in Collins leaving after Houston’s first drive and never returning. He entered the game with consecutive games of at least nine targets, 104 yards, and a touchdown, showcasing the elite upside that we’ve been chasing for a while.
The Tank Dell injury gave us optimism that Collins’ target share would challenge the best in the league, a good reason to consider him a top-15 play when healthy. That said, we now have the moving piece of Stroud’s health to deal with, not to mention the potential of this injury lingering for Collins himself.
Even if all injury protocols are passed, my ranking of Collins will be a touch lower than it would have been otherwise. That said, against a secondary that is vulnerable down the field, Collins would still be a must-start option in that situation.
If this is the Davis Mills show, I’ve got my concerns. Due to the matchup, Collins would still be a viable fantasy starter, though it would be in more in a Flex capacity. Last season, with Mills leading the offense, no Texan receiver reached 700 yards or caught more than three scores for the entire season.
Noah Brown: Tank Dell is out for the season, and Nico Collins was banged up over the weekend, leaving Brown as the lone man standing in an offense led by the impressive C.J. Stroud (health permitting) against a pass-funnel Titans defense. Sign me up!
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Tennessee ranks bottom 10 in opponent completion percentage, a true weakness given that their opponents put up a top-10 aDOT against them. Brown carries risk, but the 6’2″ receiver has flashed significant upside and should see extended opportunities in a plus matchup.
If the Titans refuse to bring pressure like they have this season (sixth-lowest blitz rate), Brown should have time to get loose down the field and reward your loyalty after a pair of duds.
DeAndre Hopkins: With a touchdown in three of four games and the highlight plays showing up on occasion, Hopkins is rounding into form now that he’s been with Levis for going on two months.
Don’t get me wrong, the floor is still low due to the efficiency concerns, but with a 34.8% target share over the past two weeks, there’s more potential reward than risk in this spot against the third-worst per-pass defense in the league.
It’s been a bumpy ride for Hopkins’ managers, but if you hung tough, your patience is set to be rewarded — Hopkins is a low-end WR2 for me and a starter in most formats as a result this week.
Tight Ends
Dalton Schultz: For a second consecutive week, Schultz was sidelined with a hamstring injury, and his status appears to be iffy at best. He’s returned top-10 value in three straight healthy games (and six of his past seven per the Week 15 Cheat Sheet) and would slide into a valuable role this week given the injuries at the skill positions for the Texans, but his return is no sure thing.
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And if he returns, are we sure that he will assume the full workload that he had before?
Brevin Jordan has turned eight targets into 99 yards during the two games Schultz has missed. I have Schultz penciled into my ranks at the moment as a fringe top-15 play. Should he sit, the role that Jordan would assume would result in him changing into the top 12 at the position.
Chigoziem Okonkwo: He got dinged up last week in the upset win over the ‘Fins, but that didn’t stop him from earning 5+ targets for a third straight game. He’s at the top of the TE blob for me, a player that can be streamed in desperate times,
Should You Start Derrick Henry or De’Von Achane?
I have them ranked back to back, giving the minor edge to the rookie. Henry has been able to pay off lately due to his ability to find the end zone, but if that dries up, there are plenty of efficiency red flags to fear.
Achane played slightly behind Raheem Mostert last week, but he was still a very involved piece of this explosive offense. The tough matchup is less than ideal, though his one-play upside is capable of breaking any defense. Both are top 20 plays at the position for me this week, and I’d side with the more explosive runner if presented this head-to-head.
Should You Start DeAndre Hopkins or Garrett Wilson?
We are looking at two very similar options here. I give the smallest of edges to Hopkins because I think he sees more high-value targets down the field. Wilson figures to hold a slight edge in sheer target volume, but we are looking at a situation where a single big play could swing this decision, and if betting on that, I’d rather take my chances on Levis.
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