The Houston Texans will face the Dallas Cowboys in Week 11. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Texans skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 11 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
C.J. Stroud, QB
C.J. Stroud hasn’t finished a week better than QB14 since September, a slump that just so happens to line up with Nico Collins’ last fully healthy game.
I suspect that Collins will be back for this game, and that has me looking at Stroud slightly differently, but I’m waiting one more week before counting on Stroud as my starting signal caller with this game being played on Monday night and the risk that comes with that in terms of Collins’ status.
Houston is going to be playing meaningful games all regular season, and that means you get a motivated (and hopefully healthy) version of this team hosting the Ravens on Christmas Day (Week 17). Remember Alvin Kamara’s historic game on Christmas Day? I’m not saying we see a stat line of similar impact this season, but if we do, it might come from someone attached to this Texans offense.
Joe Mixon, RB
Joe Mixon posted his worst boom/bust rate of the season on Sunday night (six carries that failed to gain yardage and none that gained 10+) with easily his lowest mark in terms of yards per carry after contact. Signs of fatigue for a 28-year-old running back who has 24+ rush attempts in four straight games?
I think there’s some of that, but he’s been able to hold up. If Nico Collins returns to action, I think we could see an ideal situation — less work and more efficiency. From a week-to-week point of view, I’m not the least bit worried about Mixon on Sunday. But consider yourself warned that there are some warning signs to consider as you look to build an optimal playoff roster.
Nico Collins, WR
It’s not crazy to call Nico Collins a top-10 receiver in the NFL, right? He has 154 targets since the beginning of last season as he continues to develop, a level of volume that could easily be achieved within a single healthy season if you consider him among the game’s best (nine receivers cleared that number in 2023 alone). On those 154 targets …
- 112 catches
- 1,864 yards
- 11 touchdowns
Those are similar raw numbers and superior rate numbers to what CeeDee Lamb did last season. You’ll want to monitor the status of Collins’ hamstring (I’ll update this piece daily, so just bookmark this and check back as part of your nightly routine), but barring setbacks, he’ll be locked into the many lineups in which I have access to this star.
Tank Dell, WR
We have zero sample size of what Tank Dell’s role looks like in a world that has the breakout version of Nico Collins active and the injured Stefon Diggs inactive, so there’s certainly a level of guesswork that goes into this evaluation.
My concern revolves around a healthy game-wrecker in Micah Parsons. Dell has been targeted on 21% of his career routes when C.J. Stroud gets rid of the ball faster than the league average (otherwise: 24%).
That may not seem like a massive difference, but if we are talking about the spread at face value, which implies Houston is controlling this game, we could be looking at an underwhelming night in terms of passing volume. That makes a trend like that more impactful.
Dell is a good player with enough upside to justify Flexing, but presuming a healthy-ish Collins, I’m projecting more like 4-6 targets than 6-8; that creates a scary floor. I have him ranked alongside Jaxon Smith-Njigba, another receiver who has seen his volume tick up with the absence of his team’s WR1. Dell is a middling WR3/Flex option for me with a wide range of outcomes.
Dalton Schultz, TE
Dalton Schultz had 66 receiving yards in Sunday night’s thriller against the Lions, his most since Week 10 of last season. All three of his catches gained at least 17 yards, a skill set that we’ve seen him flash in the past, but it’s important to contextualize what we just saw.
Last week, Schultz accounted for 28.4% of Houston’s receiving yards despite a 12.5% target share. If his situation wasn’t changing at all, I’d be skeptical. With various things changing, I’m comfortable betting against this profile as a streamer target.
Instead of being an underdog (passing script) in a game with a 49.5-point projection and Nico Collins sidelined, Houston is a touchdown favorite with a game total of 42 points while Houston’s WR1 is expected back in the mix. In this range of my rankings, I’d rather roll the dice on Hunter Henry or Jonnu Smith.
Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys Trends
Houston Texans
Team: Houston started 2-0. Since then, they are 0-3 against the NFC North and 4-1 against the rest of the NFL (the only other loss was to a former NFC North QB in Aaron Rodgers).
QB: C.J. Stroud has the fifth lowest quick pass rate in the NFL, a clear design of this offense (seventh lowest rate a season ago)
Offense: The Texans rank 31st in offensive success rate this season (32nd: Browns).
Defense: Houston owns the fifth worst four quarter point differential this season -27, they were 10th best a season ago at +25).
Fantasy: Joe Mixon posted his worst boom/bust rate of the season on Sunday night (six carries that failed to gain yardage and none that gained 10-plus), with easily his lowest mark in terms of yards per carry after contact. Signs of fatigue for a 28-year old running back who has 24-plus rush attempts in four straight games?
Betting: The Texans are 1-10 ATS (9.1%) on longer than normal rest in their past 11 games.
Dallas Cowboys
Team: Only two teams have lost multiple games by 25-plus points this season – both the Cowboys and Panthers have three such losses.
QB: Rico Dowdle wasn’t much more than ordinary on Sunday against the Eagles (12 carries for 53 yards), and yet, he averaged more yards per carry than Cooper Rush averaged yards per completion (13 completions for 45 yards).
Offense: Through 10 weeks, 18% of Dallas drives end inf a turnover, a rate only topped by the Raiders.
Defense: Dallas has allowed a touchdown on 29.4% of opponent drives this season, a rate that is better than only Carolina.
Fantasy: In Cooper Rush’s first start of the season, CeeDee Lamb posted the fourth worst game of his career in terms of production relative to expectation, with a minimum of six targets (-55.9%).
Betting: The Cowboys are 11-3 ATS (78.6%) in their past 14 games when playing on extended rest.