The Houston Texans‘ playoff chances took a hit heading into Week 17 after their third loss in five weeks. The positive is that their main rivals in the AFC South lost, but it also means they missed a valuable opportunity to jump ahead of the Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars in the race for the division. Additionally, the Texans lost ground in the race for the AFC Wild Card spots.
Houston Texans Playoff Chances | Week 17 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Dec. 31 at 8:55 a.m. before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
After Week 17, the Texans are the No. 8 seed in the AFC.
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Texans (9-7) defeated Titans (5-11)
Jaguars (9-7) defeated Panthers (2-14)
Colts (9-7) defeated Raiders (7-9)
Bills (10-6) defeated Patriots (4-12)
4 p.m. ET Games Update
Steelers (9-7) defeated Seahawks (8-8)
Broncos (8-8) defeated Chargers (5-11)
Chiefs (10-6) defeated Bengals (8-8)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Texans entering Week 17. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What Are the Houston Texans’ Playoff Chances and Scenarios Entering Week 17?
Based on the simulations of the PFN Playoff Predictor, the Texans have around a 40-45% chance of making the playoffs this season and around a 15% chance of winning the division. The Texans do not have their own fate in terms of the AFC South, but two wins to round out the season would see them assured of a playoff spot via the Wild Card.
First and foremost, the division is a problem because the Texans currently hold no NFL playoff tiebreakers of note over the Colts or Jaguars. Any tie with either team will mean the Texans miss out on the division, so they have to finish with a better overall record.
The Texans have two paths to win the division. If they win out and the Jaguars lose one, the Texans would have the AFC South thanks to a 10-7 record versus 9-8 at best for the other two. The other option is that the Texans win in Week 18 against the Colts, the Colts also lose in Week 17, and the Jaguars go 0-2.
That also means the Texans can be eliminated from the division contention this week if they lose and either the Colts or Jaguars win. The Colts would have an unassailable lead on tiebreakers down to conference record, while the Jaguars would have the same down to “record against common opponents.”
There are other scenarios involving ties, but as we have not had a tie this season, it is not worth delving too deep into those right now. Essentially, the Texans need to go 2-0 to have any real shot at winning the division this season.
What Are the Texans’ Playoff Scenarios in the AFC Wild Card Picture?
Entering this week, the Texans are eighth in the AFC standings, behind the Colts due to their Week 2 head-to-head loss. However, that will be an irrelevant situation if the Texans win out, as they will defeat the Colts on the way.
Additionally, the Texans have head-to-head wins over the Steelers and Bengals. In order to reach a tie scenario, they would also have a conference record advantage over the Bills. That means if the Texans win out, they are essentially guaranteed a playoff spot when the tiebreakers are all resolved.
MORE: Houston Texans Depth Chart
The counterpoint for the Texans is that a loss this week could actually eliminate them altogether. If Houston loses and a combination of three or more other results go against them, Houston will enter Week 18 knowing their postseason hopes have died. Here are the full elimination scenarios for the Texans in Week 17:
- Texans lose + Jaguars win + Colts win + Bills win or tie
- Texans lose + Jaguars win + Colts win + Bengals win + Steelers lose or tie + Broncos lose or tie
If the Texans lose this week but win next week, they will be at the mercy of the other results. They would need the Colts and/or Bills to lose this week and need the Bills to lose next week. Additionally, the Steelers and Bengals would not be able to win more than one of their remaining games.
The final complication would be the Raiders, who, if they win out, would have a superior conference record to the Texans. Essentially, the Texans would need one of the Bills or Colts to go 0-2 and the trio of the Bengals, Steelers, and Raiders to win no more than one game in the final two weeks if they are to have a chance to make the playoffs as a Wild Card team at 9-8.
Current simulations have the Texans making the playoffs as a Wild Card team just under 30% of the time and in just over 30% of their non-division-winning simulations.
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!