The Houston Texans still having active playoff scenarios entering Week 16 would have been a surprise to many entering the season, but here we are with the AFC South still within their reach. After an up-and-down stretch, what are the Texans’ playoff chances with three weeks left in the 2023 season?
Houston Texans Playoff Chances | Week 16 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Sunday, Dec. 24 at 8:35 a.m. before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
After the Week 16 slate, the Texans are now the No. 8 seed in the AFC.
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Browns (10-5) defeated Texans (8-7)
Falcons (7-8) defeated Colts (8-7)
4 p.m. ET Games Update
Buccaneers (8-7) defeated Jaguars (8-7)
Dolphins (11-4) defeated Cowboys (10-5)
Sunday Night Football Update
Patriots (4-11) defeated Broncos (7-8)
Christmas Day Update
Raiders (7-8) defeated Chiefs (9-6)
Ravens (12-3) defeated 49ers (11-4)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Texans entering Week 16. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What Are the Houston Texans’ Playoff Chances and Scenarios Entering Week 16?
As things currently stand, the Texans are third in the AFC South and eighth in the AFC playoff picture. ESPN’s Football Power Index puts the Texans’ chances of making the playoffs at 52% and their divisional odds at 15.9%. Despite being behind the Indianapolis Colts in terms of the standings and their playoff chances right now, Houston has the chance to finish ahead of Indianapolis this season.
The Texans and Colts face off in Week 18, and a Texans victory would potentially flip the playoff tiebreaker situation on its head between those two teams. The Colts currently have the edge based on their 31-20 victory back in Week 2.
However, a Houston win in Week 18 would negate that and give the Texans the edge when it comes to divisional tiebreakers — assuming they do not lose to the Tennessee Titans in Week 17.
A loss to the Titans would make things more complicated for Houston in terms of playoff tiebreakers with the Colts. The Texans have a slight edge right now in common opponents, but a loss to the Titans would eliminate that advantage. In that scenario, there is a situation where this could go all the way to net points, net touchdowns, or even a dreaded coin toss.
In terms of the situation for the Texans when it comes to the Jacksonville Jaguars, things are a little more clear-cut. The Jaguars already have the head-to-head tiebreaker in the event of a three-way tie with the Texans and Colts. That lead is unassailable.
If the Jaguars and Texans tie in a two-way situation, then Jacksonville would also have the advantage based on either their divisional records (5-1 vs. 4-2) or a superior record against common opponents.
MORE: NFL Week 16 Playoff Bracket
The long and short of it is that Houston has to finish with a better winning percentage than the Jaguars if they want a shot at winning the AFC South.
The Texans’ simplest scenario for winning the division is to go 3-0 and hope Jacksonville fails to win one game. They would eliminate the Colts in their head-to-head Week 18 matchup, and finish ahead of the Jaguars on winning percentage. Houston can afford to tie or lose a game but then would need Jacksonville to lose at least one game and win the other.
What Are the Texans’ AFC Wild Card Playoff Scenarios?
The AFC Wild Card picture is extremely complicated. The simplest scenario for the Texans’ playoff chances is just to win out. That would be enough to either win the division or take a Wild Card spot if the Jaguars win out.
If the Texans go 3-0, no one can stop them clinching a postseason berth.
MORE: NFC South Playoff Scenarios
In that scenario, Houston would defeat Indianapolis in Week 18, meaning the Colts cannot match them on 11-6. Additionally, they would also have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Cincinnati Bengals, who they defeated 30-27 back in Week 10. Regardless of what any other team does, the Texans would be in as the seventh seed at worst.
If Houston does drop one of their final three games, things get really complicated. A lot of it would depend on what combination of teams they end up tied with. Wins over the Bengals, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Denver Broncos are a huge plus, and they face the Cleveland Browns this week.
A win over Cleveland would give the Texans head-to-head superiority over all of the potential challengers except for the Buffalo Bills.
There is good news on that front if it comes to a three-way tie, however. For the Bills and Texans to end up tied, Houston would be assured the superior conference record. Houston has four in-conference losses compared to the Bills’ five, and both teams have three games to play against conference opponents.
Therefore, there is a viable scenario where the Texans can drop a game and still get a Wild Card spot, but they would need the Colts and Bills to drop at least one game and more likely two. In theory, a 1-2 record over the last three weeks could be enough, but it would require a lot of help elsewhere, and the chances of it all playing out that way are slim.
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!