Few observers expected the Houston Texans to make the playoffs in 2023. With a first-time head coach in DeMeco Ryans leading rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud and what looked like a rebuilding roster, the Texans looked like a better bet to earn a top-five pick in next year’s draft than sneak into the postseason.
Heading into the regular season, only the Arizona Cardinals had longer odds to make the playoffs than Houston. But the Texans would be Wild Card entrants if the campaign ended today. How could their fortunes change — for better or worse — in Week 14?
Week 14 Update
Jets (5-8) defeated Texans (7-5)
Browns (8-5) defeated Jaguars (8-5)
Bengals (7-5) defeated Colts (6-6)
Broncos (7-6) defeated Chargers (5-8)
Bills (7-6) defeat Chiefs (8-5)
What Are the Houston Texans’ Playoff Chances Entering Week 14?
Although the 7-5 Texans aren’t guaranteed a postseason berth with five weeks remaining in the regular season, they’re trending toward making the tournament for the first time since 2019.
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gives Houston a 71.5% chance of making the playoffs, the highest mark for any AFC team not currently leading its division.
MORE: Houston Texans Depth Chart
If the Texans can defeat the New York Jets on Sunday, their playoff odds will jump to nearly 90%. Houston is only a 3.5-point favorite on the road, and anything can happen in the NFL. But it’s challenging to imagine the Zach Wilson-led Jets taking down the red-hot Texans.
Houston already received a favor when the Pittsburgh Steelers fell to 7-6 by losing to the New England Patriots on Thursday night. That defeat pushed the Steelers out of the AFC playoff picture and moved the Texans into the No. 7 seed.
In a best-case Wild Card scenario in which Houston beats New York, the No. 5 Browns lose to the Jaguars, and the No. 6 seed Indianapolis Colts fall to the Bengals, the Texans would exit Week 14 as the AFC’s fifth seed.
Conversely, if Houston loses while Cleveland and Indy win, its chances at a playoff berth would drop to 56%. However, the Texans would still be in place as the seventh seed unless the Buffalo Bills win in Week 14, at which point the Steelers would move back into that slot.
One significant advantage for Houston? Its schedule ranks as the NFL’s seventh-easiest to close the season. Here’s the rest of the Texans’ slate:
- Week 14: at NYJ
- Week 15: at TEN
- Week 16: vs. CLE
- Week 17: vs. TEN
- Week 18: at IND
Can Houston Still Win the AFC South?
Houston’s chances at earning a Wild Card spot will be bolstered by a Jaguars win over the Browns in Week 14, but you won’t find a Texans fan rooting for Jacksonville on Sunday.
If the Texans beat the Jets this week while the Jags lose to the Browns, Houston and Jacksonville will have identical 8-5 records. They split their season series, but the Jaguars would retain the AFC South lead based on their divisional record.
And the Texans still wouldn’t control their own divisional destiny. They’d still need Jacksonville to drop at least one game — while winning out themselves — to win the AFC South title.
It’s admittedly a long shot, as FPI gives the Texans a 15.2% to claim the division title this year. But things could change quickly, especially if Lawrence can’t play for the Jaguars this Sunday or next.
Houston will be favored in its next two games against the Jets and Tennessee Titans. Winning those contests will bring the Texans’ AFC South odds to 35%.
Let’s remain optimistic and say the Jaguars lose each of their next two matchups. With Lawrence hampered against the Browns and Baltimore Ravens — who field arguably the NFL’s two best defenses — an 0-2 Jacksonville stretch isn’t out of the question.
In that scenario, Houston’s chances of winning the division would climb all the way to 50%.
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!