The Houston Texans‘ upstart campaign ended on Saturday afternoon when C.J. Stroud and Co. suffered a 34-10 defeat to Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens, but DeMeco Ryans’ club will head into the offseason with nothing but positive vibes.
A Texans team projected to be among the worst in the NFL in 2023 instead won 10 games, secured the AFC South title, advanced to the Divisional Round, and generally exceeded nearly every preseason expectation.
But it was Houston’s process — not just the results — that should excite Texans fans, as a myriad of young players emerged as long-term building blocks. With most of their impressive core intact heading into 2024, get ready for the Texans to become everyone’s favorite pick to win Super Bowl 59.
Texans Can Win the Offseason and Next Year’s Super Bowl
Consider the five positions generally viewed as the “premium” positions in today’s NFL: quarterback, wide receiver, left tackle, pass rusher, and cornerback.
Now, think about the players the Texans have at those spots. Stroud is fresh off one of the best rookie quarterback campaigns in league history. Nico Collins finished second in yards per route run and eighth in receiving yards, while Tank Dell averaged more than 15 yards per catch before suffering a fractured fibula in Week 12.
Laremy Tunsil isn’t exactly a bargain at $25 million annually, but he’s a lockdown blindside protector. On defense, Will Anderson Jr. might be Defensive Rookie of the Year after posting 22 QB hits and seven sacks, while pending free agent Jonathan Greenard broke out for a career-high 12.5 sacks.
Derek Stingley Jr., the No. 3 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, looked like a shutdown corner after returning from a hamstring injury in Week 10.
Except for Tunsil, each of Houston’s building blocks is 26 years old or younger. Greenard can hit the open market in March, but every other significant Texans asset is under contract for multiple seasons.
Houston has an outstanding foundation in place, and general manager Nick Caserio will be able to supplement Stroud and the rest of the club’s talented base over the offseason. The Texans project to have $71.4 million in cap space in 2024, third most in the NFL behind the Washington Commanders and Tennessee Titans.
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Caserio and the Texans’ ownership have used free agency over the past several offseasons, but they’ve been volume shooters. Houston ranked dead last in cash spending in 2023. While the Texans signed 22 free agents (tied for second most in the league), they ranked just 21st in free agent spending.
It’s time for Houston to upgrade its offseason shopping routine. Instead of spending time at Aldi, Caserio needs to head to the NFL’s version of Whole Foods and bring in several high-profile free agents.
How should the Texans spend their cap space in the coming months? Here are the positions Houston should target.
Pass Rusher
Using the franchise tag to retain Greenard is a realistic option for the Texans following the former third-round pick’s 2023 eruption. The franchise tender for defense ends will cost roughly $23.3 million next season, but Houston has more than enough cap space to account for that total if it doesn’t reach a long-term agreement with Greenard.
If Greenard returns, the Texans should still target a third edge rusher like Josh Uche or Za’Darius Smith. But if Greenard leaves in free agency, Houston might consider springing for an established presence like Danielle Hunter, who appears set to depart the Minnesota Vikings this spring.
Cornerback
Stingley is a legitimate CB1, but the Texans need more options in the secondary. Steven Nelson, Stingley’s running mate in 2023, is a pending free agent, as are Desmond King and Tavierre Thomas, both of whom spent time in the slot last season.
Unfortunately, the upcoming free agent cornerback market is not a strength among this year’s class. The Chicago Bears will likely franchise Jaylon Johnson, taking the top option off the board. Unless the Texans are willing to pay up for the Kansas City Chiefs’ L’Jarius Sneed, they might have to think about re-signing Nelson and/or using their first-round pick on a corner.
Safety
While Jalen Pitre looks like a long-term starter for Houston, Ryans’ defense could use another safety. Jimmie Ward was supposed to play next to Pitre this year, but the 32-year-old was limited by injuries in 2023 and could be a cap casualty.
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Although Ward can still play when healthy, the Texans might not want to pass up the opportunity to add another playmaking safety to an already talented defensive backfield — and the 2024 free agent safety crop will give Houston plenty of choices.
Defensive Tackle
Arik Armstead wreaked havoc on the interior of Ryans’ San Francisco 49ers’ defensive lines during the latter’s time as coordinator, but the Texans don’t have a dominant presence up front. Sheldon Rankins led Houston’s DT group in snaps, sacks, and QB hits last season but turns 30 in April and is a pending free agent.
Houston could spring for an FA defensive tackle like Chris Jones, Leonard Williams, or Justin Maduibuike, whom the Texans just watched record four pressures against them in the Divisional Round.
Caserio and Co. could also use their first-round pick — No. 23, acquired from the Cleveland Browns — on a DT or try to trade for an up-and-coming option like the New England Patriots’ Christian Barmore.
Running Back
The Texans ranked 29th in rushing efficiency last season, and second-year RB Dameon Pierce was the primary culprit in their struggles. Pierce finished with the NFL’s worst success rate (37.9%) on the ground, averaged just 2.9 yards per carry, and eventually lost Houston’s starting RB job to veteran Devin Singletary.
Singletary was better on the ground, but he’s scheduled to become a free agent in March. If the Texans don’t re-sign Singletary, they could evaluate other options like Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Tony Pollard, or D’Andre Swift.
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