The Houston Texans‘ preview takes a look at their passing game from a fantasy football lense after their historic Week 9 outing, while the Cincinnati Bengals‘ outlook attempts to quantify their upward-trending offense.
Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals
- Spread: Bengals -6.5
- Total: 48
- Texans implied points: 21
- Bengals implied points: 27.5
Quarterbacks
C.J. Stroud: The “Pride of Ohio State” put on an absolute show last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, breaking Marc Bulger’s single-game record for passing yards by a rookie with 470.
The final numbers from Week 9 were historic, but it was the method that he produced at such a high level that impressed me most. Oftentimes, in massive QB games, we see an alpha receiver take over and make the final quarterback look better than he might have deserved.
That was not the case on Sunday. Stroud’s five touchdown passes went to four different players, and his WR1 was not one of the three Texans to clear 100 receiving yards. Special.
Per the Week 10 Cheat Sheet, the Bengals own the highest opponent aDOT in the league, and given how accurate Stroud was down the field last week, he’s poised to finish inside the top 10 at the position for a second consecutive week. He didn’t have a single such week prior.
It’s never too early to look ahead — the Texans get the Tennessee Titans in Week 15 and Week 17. We could be looking at something special.
Joe Burrow: That’s four straight games with multiple passing scores (and a completion percentage north of 68%) for Burrow as the Bengals’ offense is rounding into form. He’s still not at the peak of his powers, but he’s trending toward the QB5 that he was drafted as this summer.
MORE: PFN Consensus Rankings
The Texans are a bottom-10 defense at getting off the field on third down and allow opponents to complete 70.6% of their passes (second-highest). In short, they aren’t the type of unit to slow down Burrow’s positive momentum, and if Stroud is pushing him to keep up, this could be a vintage performance.
Buckle up — you’re in the process of being rewarded for your patience.
Running Backs
Dameon Pierce: An ankle injury cost Pierce his first game of the season, and in his place, Devin Singletary did his best Pierce impersonation: 15 touches for 26 yards.
This run game is a mess and is not one I’m tempted to touch this weekend, even against the second-worst per-carry run defense in all the land.
Not only has Pierce (ruled OUT on Friday) been objectively bad, but it’s Singletary that is used more in the passing game, and this team is pretty clearly focused on developing Stroud above all things. Pair that with a brutal end-of-season schedule and, no matter what Pierce does on Sunday, he won’t be a starter in my ranks as your fantasy league is being decided.
- Week 14 at Jets
- Week 15 at Titans
- Week 16 vs. Browns
- Week 17 vs. Titans
Devin Singletary: As mentioned, Singletary was largely ineffective in an extended role (75% snap share) last week, and that shouldn’t be a surprise. This team can’t run the ball and has very little in doing so, making this a black hole for fantasy production.
Mike Boone was on the field and ran a route on 84.2% of his snaps against the Buccaneers. That’s not to say that Boone will matter at all, he won’t, but it’s yet another piece of the pie that isn’t going to the lead back in this offense. Singletary checks in as my RB31 with the news that Pierce is out — I still think you can do better!
Joe Mixon: With a touchdown in consecutive games and over 20 receiving yards in three straight, Mixon is producing viable fantasy numbers despite a lack of explosion. Is he 2022 Najee Harris but on a better offense?
Mixon (150 touches this season) has failed to average more than 3.2 yards per carry in three of his past four and has just two touches of more than 20. The big play is not a part of his profile, but with this offense trending in a very positive direction as a whole, Mixon deserves to be started with confidence due to his all-inclusive role.
His ypc currently sits at 3.9, identical to what it was last season. I’m not projecting massive gains in that department, which limits his ability to consistently burst into the top 10. However, Mixon’s at no risk of falling out of fantasy lineups.
Wide Receivers
Nico Collins: Hang in there. If you were out and about last Sunday, you may have caught the Stroud updates.
“Record-setting,” “his fifth touchdown pass of the day won the game,” “chunk plays for days in Houston.”
MORE: PPR Rankings
With the alpha receiver in this offense, if you saw those headlines without watching the game, you likely thought you had fantasy points to burn.
Not so much. Collins was fine (54 yards and a touchdown), but given the Stroud stat line, I would have expected at least twice as many fantasy points than the 12.9 he earned.
It’s OK. Despite not being one of the three Texans to hit 100 receiving yards last week, Collins should continue to be viewed as the top option in this developing passing game.
The top target in every offense facing the Bengals during Cincy’s four-game win streak has either scored or seen 9+ targets, something I believe we see extended to five straight games and helps Collins finish as a top-15 receiver for the fourth time this season.
Tank Dell: Was the massive Week 9 good to see? Of course, it was. But my thoughts of Dell on a weekly basis have not changed — risk/reward.
For the season, Dell has a trio of top-20 finishes and four outside of the top 45. This is who he is. I was encouraged by a red-zone carry last week. If that portion of his role becomes consistent, we can have a different conversation, but not until then.
I still think Dell will be the third option in this passing game more often than not, and that’s going to have him hovering around WR30-35 most weeks. That’s the case in this spot, though the path to upside is there, given that the Bengals own the league’s highest opponent aDOT.
Noah Brown: He was the breakout performer last week, and he was added in mass this week. Are managers chasing a ghost, or is there actually something there for the rest of the season?
MORE: Should You Add Noah Brown?
Brown posted a 74.5% route participation last week, putting him in the same range as Houston’s trio of primary pass catchers. That sort of usage is ultra-interesting in an offense that is aiming to develop their promising quarterback, but don’t forget that Robert Woods was sidelined.
Woods could return this week (the third week of a 2-3 week timetable). Even if Woods misses another game, Brown won’t crack my top 45 this week.
Ja’Marr Chase: This Bengals offense is trending up, and that’s more encouraging than the rare Chase down week is concerning.
Chase finished the week as the WR44 after checking in at, on average, WR15 over his five games prior. He has seen at least eight targets in every game this season, and his per-opportunity upside is nothing short of elite as Burrow approaches his peak form.
Tee Higgins: Here he comes — when healthy. Higgins was WR8 last week (eight catches for 110 yards) and has caught 13 of 15 targets since the Week 7 bye. With the efficiency trending up and the raw ability proven, Higgins should be viewed now as he was in August — a strong WR2 who is a lineup lock when back on the field, but we learned Friday that will not be this week. Higgins has officially been ruled OUT for Week 10.
While Higgins’ status gives a slight target bump to Tyler Boyd, he still isn’t in the Flex conversation for me. For his career, Higgins has only scored in two of 10 games when Chase reaches 100 yards, so if you’re like me and believe this is a big Chase spot, there’s no real need for a WR2.
Boyd is a fringe top 40 receiver with more appeal in PPR formats than anything else.
Tight Ends
Dalton Schultz: Touchdowns aren’t the most predictable metric in the world. But with this offense functioning at the level that it currently is and Schultz clearly being a part of their red-zone package, his scoring equity is high enough to justify considering a top-12 play for the remainder of the season.
The former Cowboy has scored in four of his past five games, and because it’s the TE position, that means he’s finished each of those weeks as a top-six performer. Last week, Schultz scored from nine yards out on a fourth-down play and saw an end-zone target that didn’t pay off.
His usage in an offense that can only move the ball through the air is gold, which makes him an asset set to deliver during the second half of the fantasy season.
Should You Start Tank Dell or Jahan Dotson?
Both of these deep threats are trending in a positive direction, so give me the quarterback that will be throwing to the receiver and has proven to be more of a talent elevator in C.J. Stroud over Washington Commander Sam Howell.
I have both receivers ranked as fringe starters who carry a wide range of outcomes, but Houston Texan Tank Dell’s matchup against the defense with the highest opponent aDOT gives his ceiling a slightly higher chance at being targeted this week than Washington WR Jahan Dotson. Both are live DFS options in GPPs for their ability to break the slate and target trends.
Should You Start C.J. Stroud or Trevor Lawrence?
I’m hopeful that Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence will come out of the bye looking as good as he has this season, but in a tough matchup against a rested San Francisco 49ers defense, I need proof of growth before banking on it.
Stroud isn’t throwing for 470 yards again this week, but the pass-heavy play-calling isn’t going anywhere, and his development is no fluke. I have both ranked as top-12 players at the position, but I prefer both the floor and ceiling that comes with the rookie.
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