Some games on the Week 5 slate are loaded with fantasy football potential — this is not one of them. That said, there are points available and decisions to be made. The Houston Texans’ fantasy preview for this game breaks down their rookie quarterback, while the Atlanta Falcons’ fantasy outlook aims to evaluate their pass catcher situation.
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Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons
- Spread: Falcons -2
- Total: 41
- Texans implied points: 18.5
- Falcons implied points: 20.5
Quarterbacks
C.J. Stroud: With at least 20 fantasy points in three straight games, the rookie has as many 20-point efforts this season as Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, and Justin Fields combined! Hand up if you saw that coming; I know I didn’t.
Stroud’s 1,212 passing yards are the second most through four career games (Cam Newton owns the record if you need a little bar trivia for the week), and by ranking 13th in aDOT, it’s not as if he is benefiting from unsustainable aggression.
With a double-digit yard gain on the ground in three of four games, I’m tempted to say that there is staying power as a fantasy asset this season. I do worry about the sporadic accuracy (under 64% completion percentage in three of four games), but given that this team has no real option besides throwing the ball (76.3% of their yards come through the air, the third-highest rate in the NFL), volume can cover up that flaw.
Stroud is a top-15 play for me this week against a Falcons team that is traveling back from London, a ranking he will likely carry until further notice.
Desmond Ridder: He has as many career multi-INT games as multi-TD pass games and has never thrown for 240 yards in an NFL game. The goal of this offense is to limit the number of passing attempts, and until that changes, Ridder will be among the five least-friendly QBs in fantasy. He’s an iffy play, even in Superflex formats, too.
Running Backs
Dameon Pierce: Could help be on the way in the form of healthy linemen for Pierce this week? It’s possible – and that would help his outlook a touch, given that the next time he averages over 3.5 yards per carry in a game this season will be the first. How much upside are we realistically willing to give him at this point?
Per the Week 5 Cheat Sheet, Pierce has yet to post a top-15 finish at the position, and while he did hold a 42-25 snap edge over Devin Singletary in Week 4, he ran one fewer route. That role in the passing game is where the upside is going to be generated in this aggressive offense, so until that changes, Pierce is going to have a hard time cracking my top 25.
Bijan Robinson: You know it when you see it. The college tape and excitement entering his NFL debut were impressive and promising, but none of that is 100% predictive. What is 100% predictive is showcasing elite talent on a per-touch basis through your first month in the league, something Robinson has certainly done.
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From knee-buckling jukes to one-handed palmings of the football, I’m very convinced that there is just about nothing this kid can’t do. He’s in an offense that is designed to get him 18-20 touches per game, and it genuinely feels like every one of those touches has the chance to be special.
He is in the McCaffrey tier of running back for the remainder of this season and certainly beyond 2023 for those in dynasty leagues.
Tyler Allgeier: As comforting as it is to get playing time from those stashed on your bench, Allgeier has back-to-back-to-back games with under five fantasy points after dropping 22.9 on the Panthers in Week 1.
The fact that he got an opportunity to produce on 60% of his snaps last weekend speaks to how this offense functions and why he needs to remain rostered, but you can’t justify playing him in anything less than a desperate situation.
Wide Receivers
Nico Collins: We are looking at an alpha receiver in a pass-heavy offense. What more could you ask for? Collins is a strong WR2 for me until otherwise noted, thanks to him posting at least nine targets and 80 receiving yards in three of four games to open the season.
After a month of action in the 2023 regular season, we take a look at how values have shifted for several RBs, WRs, and TEs in dynasty leagues. https://t.co/39GD79XQND
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The Tank Dell experience is a rollercoaster ride and may prevent Collins from coming through in a big way for some weeks. Considering that Dell earned a target on just 18.5% of routes last week, a rate that was less than half of Collins’, there is no question who sits atop the WR hierarchy (and, realistically, the fantasy hierarchy) in Houston.
Tank Dell: What we’ve seen through one month from Dell is exactly what I think we see for the next three: spike games and a maddening floor. On his résumé, this season is a pair of top-20 finishes and two weeks (including last week vs. PIT: one catch for 16 yards) ranking outside of the top 60 fantasy receivers.
I have nothing against the player, and this matchup has him on my Flex radar; I just want you to go in with eyes wide open about the range of outcomes that you’re signing up for.
Drake London: Here lies Drake London’s fantasy hopes. He led the team in targets but didn’t give you what you were looking for.
Tombstones need to be accurate and succinct. That can be difficult in many cases – this is not one of them. In Week 4, for the 13th time in his 21-game career, the former first-rounder was held under 50 receiving yards.
Over the past two weeks, he is averaging 4.5 yards per target. That’s supposed to be a yards-per-carry rate for a running back, not the yards-per-target number for a potential franchise-changing receiver.
He doesn’t have a health problem. He doesn’t have a talent problem. He has a Desmond Ridder problem.
Until that changes, London is nothing more than roster depth.
Tight Ends
Dalton Schultz: Last week was cute. Schultz finished as TE5 against the Steelers because he found the end zone, but with just three targets earned, why would I adjust my overall view of him?
Schultz wasn’t a top-25 performer at the position in any of the first three weeks this season, a floor that scares me off of him. He is outside of my top-15 tight ends this week and a distant second in terms of TEs I want to roster with the first name Dalton.
Kyle Pitts: If you’re reading this and are a productive NFL pass catcher, I’m honored. Also, what I’m about to say probably doesn’t apply to you.
You have the same number of games with 45 receiving yards since Halloween as Pitts does.
The production pretty clearly hasn’t been there, and with no more than five targets in three of four games this season, I’m not sure how you spin things forward in an optimistic way. Not that you needed salt poured into this wound, but Jonnu Smith led the team in catches (six) and receiving yards (95) last week in London.
As brutal as the tight end position is to fill these days, there is still no reason to be banking on Pitts. Like London, I don’t mind playing the long game in dynasty, but when it comes to redraft, you can find more production on the wire.
Jonnu Smith: With at least six targets in three straight games, the veteran can’t be ignored when it comes to streaming options at tight end. I don’t think the six-catch, 95-yard performance from last week is going to happen consistently, but the usage doesn’t lie. He was targeted on 26.1% of his routes against the Jaguars, a far superior rate to that of Pitts (14.3%).
I don’t blame you if you want no part of this passing game, but if you are streaming the position, at the moment at least, Smith seems to be the guy in Atlanta to back.
Should You Start C.J. Stroud or Joe Burrow?
The rookie is pacing for over 5,000 passing yards, and that’s great, but a pace is only as sustainable as the volume beneath it. Stroud certainly checks that box, as he is attempting nearly 38 passes per game in an offense that pretty clearly wants to develop him on the fly.
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The Atlanta defense doesn’t scare me enough to believe that those throws will be empty calories this week, and with Burrow at less than full strength (both personally and at pass catcher), I’m comfortable in rolling Stroud out in this spot. Burrow’s next top-20 finish this season will be his first, and he has officially entered the “I need to see it before investing in it” tier of fantasy signal-caller.
Should You Start Tank Dell or Tutu Atwell?
I’m not overly optimistic on either, but I do lean toward Dell with Atwell’s role standing to change and a less-than-full-strength QB. Dell has been hit-and-miss this season, something that I believe continues throughout the rest of this seaso., I like his chances of a “hit” week in this spot more than I do Atwell’s.
The Eagles defense is a tough one, and it’s generally taken size to beat them. This season, the average player who has caught a touchdown pass against the Birds checks in at just over 6’2″ tall. Atwell is a short 5’9″, and I worry that one day after his 24th birthday, he fails to do much more than what he did against the Colts last weekend (five catches for 24 yards).