Hollywood Brown Injury Update: Should Fantasy Managers Take Advantage of a Discounted Price?

We all saw Hollywood Brown land hard on his shoulder while making his first in-game reception as a member of the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 1 of the preseason.

With a reported recovery timeline of four to six weeks, how should fantasy football managers approach Brown in rapidly upcoming drafts?

Hollywood Brown’s Injury Update

There are no words to adequately express how much I despise injuries. Unfortunately, they are part of the game.

In an effort to bolster what was one of the worst WR groups in the NFL last season, the Chiefs signed Brown to a one-year deal earlier this year. He was set to start on the outside opposite Rashee Rice in two-receiver sets.

In Week 1 of the preseason, Brown suffered an injury to his SC joint. It is similar to the one Tyreek Hill sustained back in 2019. Hill wound up missing four weeks, which is on the shorter end of the 4-6 week timeline given for Brown.

The Chiefs open the season on Thursday night against the Baltimore Ravens on Sept. 5. We all really wanted to see the Hollywood revenge game.

Sadly, that game is just shy of four weeks from the date of Brown’s injury. Not only would it be a stretch for Brown to recover by then, but the Chiefs have a history of playing it safe with injuries early in the season.

Last year, Travis Kelce hurt his knee a few days before the season opener. He pushed very hard to play, but the coaching staff would not give in, and rightfully so. It’s Week 1 of an 18-week season. For a team like the Chiefs, they’re planning for a 22-week season. It would have made absolutely no sense for Kelce to play at far less than 100% in the very first game of the year.

Fantasy managers should expect the team to take a similar approach with Brown. Given that six weeks is the far end of the timeline, holding him out the first game or two will allow him to fully heal and significantly reduce the likelihood of re-injury.

Kansas City Chiefs WR Depth Chart

For months, we’ve been waiting on news of a Rashee Rice suspension. We’ve heard nothing. The closer we get to the season with no new information, the less likely it is Rice gets suspended. That means the Chiefs’ WR depth chart looks like this:

WR1: Rashee Rice
WR2: Hollywood Brown
WR3: Xavier Worthy

With Brown out, that would elevate Worthy to starting in two-receiver sets.

Given Worthy’s talent and status as a first-round draft pick, it’s entirely possible he showcases enough over the final three weeks of training camp and the first two regular season games to keep the starting job ahead of Brown.

While Brown is out, the Chiefs will likely use a rotation of players in that WR3 role. Skyy Moore replaced Brown in the first preseason game following the injury. However, at Monday’s press conference, Chiefs offensive coordinator Matt Nagy specifically mentioned Justin Watson as the guy who will play more.

Regardless of who steps into the role — and I do believe Nagy that it will be Watson — Brown’s absence does not make anyone who was not previously fantasy-relevant suddenly worth considering. It gives a slight bump to Rice, Kelce, and Worthy. No other pass catcher on this team is worth drafting.

Should Fantasy Managers Draft Brown?

The latest ADP data has Brown at WR38. I anticipate that falling another couple of spots over the next week or two.

Initially, I was very much in on Brown this season. However, the more thought I’ve put into it and the more research I’ve done, I am now fading the former Raven and Cardinal.

Although this is an upper-body injury for Brown, he has a lengthy history of lower-body injuries. In my previous analysis, I focused too heavily on the positive stretches of his career (first half of 2021, first five weeks of 2022, Weeks 2-5 of 2023).

The reality is Brown’s never been a reliable producer, and his ceiling games aren’t that high. He maxed out at 17.4 fantasy points in a single game last season. That’s not a bad number. But if he’s giving us 5-6 games around there and then 10 unstartable games, that’s not going to get the job done.

Brown averaged just 1.27 yards per route run last season, a number that has declined every year of his career. Even though he’s now in a Patrick Mahomes-led offense, Brown may very well end up being fourth in the target hierarchy behind Kelce, Rice, and Worthy.

I recently lowered Brown to WR43 in my ranks and am not targeting him unless he falls well below ADP.