When Hollywood Brown signed with the Kansas City Chiefs this offseason, the hope was that it would give his fantasy football value a boost for 2024 and beyond. Having finished outside of the top 45 players at his position for two straight years with the Arizona Cardinals, the pairing with Patrick Mahomes offered a lot of potential.
Unfortunately, in his first live-action for the Chiefs back in Week 1 of the NFL preseason, Brown suffered an injury that has left him questionable heading into the 2024 regular season. Let’s take a look at the latest news surrounding the injury and what it means for the fantasy value of both Brown and the other Chiefs’ wide receivers.
Could Hollywood Brown’s Injury See Him Miss Week 1?
From the moment that Brown’s injury was diagnosed as a sternoclavicular joint dislocation, it was always going to be a race against time for him to be ready for Week 1. Tyreek Hill suffered the same injury in 2019, and he missed four games.
#Chiefs HC Andy Reid said WR Hollywood Brown suffered a sternoclavicular joint dislocation, which he compared to Tyreek Hill's injury from 2019 (also against the Jaguars).
Said he'll potentially miss some time. Hill missed 4 games in '19.
— Jordan Foote (@footenoted) August 11, 2024
In some ways, the timing was fortunate for Brown because it means he won’t miss four regular-season games. He suffered the injury on Aug. 11, so if we take four weeks from there, that puts Sept. 8 as the fourth week.
If Brown follows the same timetable as Hill, then he would likely be in line to miss the Chiefs’ first game against the Baltimore Ravens on Sept. 5.
#Chiefs Andy Reid expects Chris Jones, Joe Thuney & Jawaan Taylor to be ready to go for Week 1.
“The only one probably in question is Hollywood (Brown).”#ChiefsKingdom
— Marleah Campbell (@MarleahKCTV5) August 19, 2024
Just over a week after the injury, head coach Andy Reid didn’t have much of an update on Brown’s Week 1 availability. The silver lining is that even if Brown does miss that Thursday NFL kickoff game in Kansas City, he’ll have 10 days until the Chiefs play in Week 2 against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Should Fantasy Football Managers Be Concerned About Brown?
Brown’s current ADP is right around No. 100 overall on most sites, in the range of WR35-45. A week after he suffered the injury, some of that ADP will include concern about his status.
However, with Brown only expected to miss a week or two at most, there should be no major reason to downgrade him. There will always be concerns over potentially aggravating the injury, but that’s a hard thing to predict.
In 12-team leagues, Brown is drafted in the ninth or 10th round, meaning he was drafted primarily as a Flex consideration rather than a must-start option.
Ultimately, Brown’s upside is enticing enough that his current value makes it worth waiting a week or two for him to be ready. When you look at his history, it will be no surprise that his best results have come when paired with a high-end quarterback.
Per TruMedia, other than eight games with Joshua Dobbs, Brown has averaged 4.80 PPR points per game with QBs who are not Lamar Jackson or Kyler Murray. With Jackson and Murray, he’s averaged 11.97 fantasy points per game.
It’s worth noting that an average of 12 fantasy ppg would only have been good enough to finish in the WR40 range last year. Therefore, Brown would need to better what he’s done with Jackson and Murray to finish above his current ADP.
The ultimate takeaway with Brown is that fantasy managers shouldn’t be reaching for him higher than that ninth or 10th-round range. However, if he does fall into the double-digit rounds, Brown could prove to be an intriguing option, even if he misses the first couple of weeks.
From a fantasy perspective, the other Chiefs’ receivers have little impact. Brown’s absence in training camp will have opened up more opportunities for Xavier Worthy. The rookie could also get a game or two to impress and secure a starting role before Brown returns.
Worthy’s ADP is currently just above Brown’s, which reflects the high upside fantasy managers believe his speed could present. However, it feels like Worthy might not be a great value in that range.
With Brown potentially out, Worthy’s ADP may be being pushed up through the hope that he can steal that starting role. That’s a risky price to pay for a wide receiver who is loaded with potential but is by no means a certainty to see regular snaps in this offense.