Hollywood Brown has had stretches of WR1 production in the past but has never been able to sustain it for a full season. Now playing with Patrick Mahomes on the Kansas City Chiefs‘ explosive offense, just how ambitious should we be with Brown’s fantasy football projection?
Hollywood Brown’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 11.1
- Receptions: 77
- Receiving Yards: 837
- Receiving TDs: 4.7
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Brown This Year?
Every year, NFL fans and fantasy managers get excited about prospective free agents landing in the perfect spot and what it would mean for their production. Reality rarely matches expectations. But … this might just be the exception.
Ever since Mahomes was anointed the starter in 2018, he’s never had two viable wide receivers. Before each of the past two seasons, it was a stretch to even say he had one. Now, Mahomes gets the privilege of pairing Brown with Rashee Rice in what I consider a pretty ideal marriage of skill sets (assuming Rice is playing in 2024).
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Oftentimes, we hope and expect teams will sign players that make sense within the confines of the talent they have. Instead, we get things like the Tennessee Titans, who signed a player with a similar skillset to Tyjae Spears in Tony Pollard.
When teams have that volume X receiver, we want them to sign that stretch Z. The Chiefs did exactly that with Brown to pair with Rashee Rice, who operates close to the line of scrimmage.
Rice’s 4.8 aDOT (average depth of target) was 99th in the league. Nearly 70% of his 938 receiving yards came after the catch.
Brown is definitely more than just a deep threat (his highest aDOT was 13.0 in 2020, 25th in the league), but he still has a 4.32-second 40-yard dash time. If one of these receivers is going to burn defenders deep, it’s certainly not Rice.
It would be foolish to completely disregard the fact that Brown is coming off the worst season of his career, averaging 9.6 fantasy points per game (ppg). The good news is we can pretty easily explain it away.
For starters, Brown was without Kyler Murray for half the season. Although he saw a healthy 22.8% target share, his catchable target rate was among the worst in the league. It’s easy to blame bad quarterback play for Brown’s struggles, and that’s exactly what we should do.
Just two years ago, Brown averaged 13.0 fantasy ppg. In 2022, he averaged 14.1 fantasy ppg. Now, playing for a Kansas City offense that had a 61% neutral-game-script pass rate last season (compared to 53% from Arizona), not only should Brown’s quality of target increase but so should the overall volume.
Initially, I projected out Brown very well. Part of that was due to the prospect of a Rice suspension. Part of it was due to an early summer belief in Brown that I no longer share.
Now, I have him projected for just a 14% target share, which puts him at 54 receptions for 708 yards and 7.7 touchdowns. That gives him 10.16 fantasy ppg, just a hair under 1.0 ppg less than the PFN consensus projections.
My projections do not include Rice’s suspension. The amount of time he misses would obviously impact Brown’s projection. Given that it’s mid-August and we’ve heard nothing, I am now assuming Rice’s suspension will not come until 2025.
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I now have Brown ranked at WR43, which is well below his WR36 ADP. He projected out to the WR51 for me, which is about eight spots below where he landed in the PFN consensus projections.
Additionally, Brown’s SC joint injury sustained in the first preseason game will also lower his cost. Given that he avoided surgery, combined with this being the same injury Tyreek Hill suffered in 2019, which cost him four games, I am not docking Brown much as a result. Even if he misses the first week or two of the season, that’s not enough for me to significantly lower my ranking. I am already below consensus on him.
While I do think we’re going to see Mahomes bounce back with a vengeance, I am projecting Brown to be the one who benefits the least. I have Brown behind Travis Kelce, Rice, and Xavier Worthy in target share. There is a world where Brown outperforms his ADP. If he does, it will be on another manager’s fantasy team.
