Hollywood Brown’s Fantasy Profile: Following Preseason Injury, Chiefs WR Is Risky Middle-Round Investment in 2024

Through his first five years in the league, the fantasy football career of WR Hollywood Brown has felt like a bit of a disappointment. He flashed his exceptional big-play ability during his time with the Baltimore Ravens and Arizona Cardinals but has never sustained that level of excellence in any one season to truly breakout as a fantasy league-winner while playing with either Lamar Jackson or Kyler Murray under center.

Now, Brown is set to play football with the best quarterback in the league as a member of the Kansas City Chiefs. What can fantasy managers expect the speedy wideout heading into his sixth year in the NFL?

Should You Select Hollywood Brown at His Current ADP?

PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 88th Overall (WR37)

• Disappointing Track Record: Over his first five years in the NFL, Hollywood Brown has flashed big-play potential but has never consistently delivered as a top-tier fantasy WR. He’s coming off two underwhelming seasons with the Arizona Cardinals, where he failed to finish as a top-40 fantasy WR.
• 2023 Struggles: In 2023, Brown finished as the WR52 with 51 receptions for 574 yards and four touchdowns. Despite ranking inside the top 30 in target share and air yards, his efficiency metrics were disappointing, with 1.27 yards per route run, 5.7 yards per target, and 11.2 yards per reception, all ranking outside the top 65 among WRs.
• New Opportunity in Kansas City: Brown now joins an explosive Chiefs offense led by Patrick Mahomes, which naturally generates buzz. However, the presence of target hogs like Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice, as well as the addition of rookie WR Xavier Worthy, could limit Brown’s target volume and role in the offense.
• Target Competition: Brown faces the toughest target competition of his career in Kansas City. Kelce and Rice are likely to dominate the short and intermediate areas, while Worthy, with his blazing speed, could command a significant share of the deep targets. This raises concerns about Brown’s ability to reach 100 targets for the first time since his rookie year.
• Inconsistent Production: While Brown will likely have spike weeks and big performances, his role as potentially the fourth option in the passing game could lead to inconsistent fantasy production, making him a risky weekly starter.
• ADP Analysis: Brown’s current ADP of WR37 in the early eighth round feels inflated, especially given the other playmakers in the Chiefs’ offense, his durability concerns, and his inconsistent production history. He’s being drafted ahead of players like Diontae Johnson, Ladd McConkey, and DeAndre Hopkins, who may offer more reliable production.
• Final Verdict: While playing with Mahomes offers upside, Brown’s fantasy ceiling is capped by the strong target competition in Kansas City. Given his track record and the other available options at this ADP, it may be wiser to target a more reliable or higher-upside player in the eighth round.

PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Hollywood Brown

Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. Since Brown is ranked outside the top 75 in the PFN Consensus Rankings, we’ve listed the consensus WR rankings instead. 

34) Ladd McConkey, WR | Los Angeles Chargers
35) Jayden Reed, WR | Green Bay Packers
36) Chris Godwin, WR | Tampa Bay Buccaneers
37) Diontae Johnson, WR | Carolina Panthers
38) Brian Thomas Jr., WR | Jacksonville Jaguars
39) Hollywood Brown, WR | Kansas City Chiefs
40) DeAndre Hopkins, WR | Tennessee Titans
41) Calvin Ridley, WR | Tennessee Titans
42) Xavier Worthy, WR | Kansas City Chiefs
43) Courtland Sutton, WR | Denver Broncos
44) Keon Coleman, WR | Buffalo Bills

August 10 Update: On his first and only reception of the Chiefs’ first preseason game, Brown landed hard on his shoulder and immediately exited the game. It was later revealed he suffered an SC joint injury, similar to the one former Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill sustained in 2019. Hill wound up missing a month with that injury.

If Brown’s timeline is similar, that would be right around Week 1. Given how early it is, expect the Chiefs to exercise caution. Even if Brown does miss a game or two, that shouldn’t impact his ADP.

– Jason Katz, PFN Fantasy Analyst

It tends to generate a ton of buzz in the fantasy football community whenever a new veteran WR gets to catch passes from all-world quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Brown is no exception to that rule.

Unfortunately, Brown is coming off of a two-year run with the Cardinals where he failed to produce a single top-40 fantasy WR season with his former college quarterback. Brown finished 2023 as the overall WR52 with 51 receptions for 574 yards and four TDs. Sure, he dealt with some injuries last year, but his average of 9.6 fantasy points per game in full-PPR formats over 14 games played is nothing to write home about.

To further dissect his 2023 season, Brown’s 1.27 yards per route run, 5.7 yards per target, and 11.2 yards per reception — all ranked outside of the top 65 at the WR position — feel like a major disappoint for a player who ranked inside the top 30 at his position in target share and air yards.

Now he is entering an offense with multiple short-area target hogs in Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice and could have his vertical shots eaten into by dynamic rookie WR Xavier Worthy — who posted a 4.21-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, the fastest mark posted by any player in the event’s history.

Without knowing Rice’s potential suspension situation at the moment, one can realistically see him and Kelce earning north of 100 targets this season. Worthy was utilized very often in the screen and manufactured-touch game too during his days at the University of Texas, which really isn’t Brown’s calling card.

Brown will certainly have his spike weeks and big performances in this offense, yet this is by far the best target competition he’s ever had in his young career. This makes me nervous that he could fail to see 100 targets for the first time since his rookie year in this offense.

Is Brown a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?

Brown’s ADP certainly feels a bit inflated at No. 88 overall, going off the board in the beginning of the eighth round as the WR37. He’s currently being selected ahead of Diontae Johnson, Ladd McConkey, and DeAndre Hopkins.

This price point has fallen a bit over the last month, but still feels a bit aggressive considering the other playmakers in this passing offense, Brown’s durability concerns, and the fact he has finished as a top-35 fantasy WR just once in his first five years in the NFL.

I understand playing with Mahomes offers a great fantasy ceiling. However, there is an argument to be made that Brown is the fourth option in this passing game behind Kelce, Rice, and Worthy.

Mahomes is capable of producing historic passing numbers, but I would rather go in other directions at this point in the eighth round.